WORLD CONFERENCE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 23796, 1 May 1939, Page 11

WORLD CONFERENCE

HOPES HELD IN ENGLAND ARMAMENTS LIMITATION SUGGESTED NO “SPRING CRISIS ” AFTER ALL (From Our Own Correspondent) (By Air Mail) LONDON, Mar. 13. It was Lord Salisbury who said “ prophecies about foreign affairs invariably go wrong.” At the moment it would appear that at least another prophecy is about to be unfulfilled. While there has been a crop of rumours throughout the winter about “ a spring crisis ” and trouble in March,” the most interesting news to greet the passing of the winter months is the talk of a world conference for limitation of arms, the sharing of the world’s markets between the great industrial nations, and the allocation of colonies.

At present the Slovakian crisis Is still in progress, and is the cause of a certain uneasiness. Two more hopeful events, however, are the remarks of Sir Samuel Hoare, Home Secretary, to the Chelsea Conservative Association. and the British trade mission to Berlin and other northern capitals to begin this week. It will be led by Mr Oliver Stanley, President of the Board of Trade, and Mr R. S. Hudson, Secretary of the Department of Overseas Trade. PLAN BASED ON PEACE Sir Samuel suggested a five-year plan to be worked out by “ the three dictators and the Prime Ministers of England and France,” which might “ transform the whole history of the world.” It would be, he said, a plan based on peace, and its adoption would permit of efforts to create a “ golden age,” with standards of living raised to heights Britain had never before been able to attempt. “The period of preparation for defence is ended: we cannot now be defeated in a short war by a knockout blow; in a long war we would be victorious. Confidence had returned, and, as a result, employment and trade have improved. At the end of the year there were many foolish people who went about saying that the democracies were effete,” continued Sir Samuel. “Few say so today, and none will say so to-morrow.” Important factors in the British Government’s confidence of the prospective of a European settlement, it is felt, are the rapid progress of the rearmament programme and the increasing financial and economic difficulties encountered by Germany and Italy These factors, in the Government's opinion, afford ground for the expectation that the twin project of a diplomatic detente and trade cooperation may ultimately lead to a conference on armaments. The German response to the initiative is so far extremely cautious. IMPORTANT TALKS

“ While it has been emphasised that Mr Oliver Stanley is not going to Berlin to negotiate or to talk politics, he is, of course, greatly interested in meeting German leaders and giving them a general idea of trade problems as they are seen through British eyes.” says 'the Observer. “There has never been any question of his reaching a rapid agreement, but he may usefully discuss, notably with HenFunk, German Minister of Economics, aspects of Anglo-German trade that do not come within the scope of the industrial conference. “A strong delegation of the F. 8.1., headed by their president, Mr P. Bennett (which is also going to Germany), will do no more, it is understood, than seek preliminary agreement with the Reichsgruppe Industrie on certain broad principles on which negotiations between individual industries may proceed. “German trading methods constitute a real menace to British industries, but oven greater is the damage caused by the fear of an enormous State system that can be swung into any market in anv commodity so that without warning a trader can suddenly find himself being undercut by a fantastic amount. “It has yet to be proved, for the rest, that the system will be successful, since if Germany needs foreign exchange she cannot gain in the long run by selling more goods at cut prices. Its great danger is more than lack of confidence by mistrust of German intentions. “If the problem cannot be settled by agreement, and it must come to a fight, Britain, it is felt, is not going to lose it. An indication of the means to be employed is contained in Mr Hudson's warning; ‘Play fair, or be beaten at your own game,’ though there is no desire in the coming negotiations to drive a hard bargain with Germany.” PROPOSED CONFERENCE

Guy Eden, the political correspondent of the Daily Express, says that with the disposal of the dispute between Italy and France as soon as the Spanish war is over, the Government are likely to call a conference of all the leading Powers to consider an arm S-limitation plan. “ I gather,” he says, “ that the agreement aimed at in the first place would bs on modest lines, covering certain

of the more costly arms, but that a more sweeping limitation would be aimed at later. There is reason to believe that some of the most heavilyarming nations will welcome a British initiative in calling a conference. ‘‘lt all goes according to plan, the conference will assemble in the late summer, probably in London, with a view to reaching an agreement before the end of the year. “ Even a ‘ token cut ’ in arms would, it is argued, lead to a great boom in trade. Together with the agreements expected to result from that tour of foreign capitals by Mr R. S. Hudson, Secretary for Overseas Trade, this should go far towards removing possible economic causes of international unrest. “Government circles are optimistic about the international situation for the first time for many months. They expect a few complications In th« next few months, but none that cannot be overcome fairly easily."