EUROPE'S CHANGED FACE

Otago Daily Times, Issue 22422, 17 November 1934, Page 11

EUROPE'S CHANGED FACE

REGROUPING OF NATIONS POLAND’S DESERTION OF ; FRANCE The following article, by Mr Aubrey L. Williams, the special European correspondent of the Otago Dally Times, was written a few hours before King Alexander of Jugoslavia landed at Marseilles,where he was assassinated. • It Is an illuminating analysis of recent important changes In European relations, and also reveals the significance of .King Alexander’s visit to France. LONDON, October 8, Stimulated, perhaps, by equinoctial gales of unusual violence, European diplo. mats are extremely active these autumn days. Th£y work underground, like the mole, but, again like that animal, they leAve traces of their toil on the surface. They are provoking much curiosity, and not a little speculation. Nothing less than the realignment of the nations into two principal camps is believed to be proceeding. Rumours of a change so extreme may exceed the event, but as justification for the rumours new trends are already visible, and other alterations, now the subject of guesswork, may yet materialise. Recall, the European scene of three months ago. France and her allies — Belgium, Poland and the nations of the Little Entente (Czechoslovakia, Jugoslavia and Rumania) —constituted what was, apparently, 4 group united in amity. Poland was showing some intransigeance, but the ties binding that country and France seemed to be almost as close as ever. There was no other bloc quite comparable, but Germany, Italy and Hungary appeared to understand each other quite well, and, from time to time, they joined ‘in demands for a revision of the Treaty of Versailles, and the removal of obstacles to Germany’s rearmament, demands which the French group consistently opposed. What a change has come over the scene. A rift has appeared in the French bloc. In what has been described as a fit of pique and prestige Poland has ended her .alliance wi-h France, and has entered into close relations .with Germany, France’s eternal enemy. And, if rumour be not false, IT. Barthou, France’s Foreign Minister, has had to use all his persuasive powers (o induce Jugoslavia to Remain in his camp. The alliance holds for the present, bur ' none can say for how long. Equally significant has been the change in the other group. Hitler aas gained Poland, but he has lost Italy. Recently—no further back than mid-July —on the best of terms, the two countries have fallen far apart. Who reading at the time of that meeting in Venice, and of the delirious enthusiasm evoked by the appearance of the two dictators, Mussolini and Hitler, on St. Mark’s square, would have imagined that so firm a friendship—apparently—would perish within a month. But events move rapidly in Europe these* days. The disturbing element is resurgent Germany. She has electrified some of her former allies; she has dazzled some of her former enemies. Her rehabilitation as a strong Power was not at first marked by important diplomatic gains. Hitler's success in negorinting a part of non-aggression wi'n Poland last January did not seem of outstanding importance at the time. It was only when Poland, obviously under German pressure, recently refused to enter M. Barthou’s proposed Eastern Pact, that the great significance of the January agreement became clear. If that pact has not yet been followed by a military alliance such a bond is obviously in preparation. Poland’s abandonment of her alliance with France is an act of cynical ingratitude. A century ago France gave refuge to thousands of Polish refugees, who fled abroad after an abortive rising in Russian Poland. None more than France assisted in Poland’s rebirth, when, in 1917-18, the collapse of the three empires—Russia, Germany and Austria —which, in the eighteenth century, had parcelled her between them, made united Poland possible. It was the presence, if not the active direction, of General Wcvpand and some scores of French officers which enabled the Polish Army to star the Russian Bolshevist hordes in their advance upon Warsaw in 1920. „ • 1 to turn that advance into a retreat. Nothin" is more striking in Poland* history than her capacity for making political error*. It may one day be-

come clear that her latest exhibition is another grave political blunder. She shares with Germany an urge to the East. Jingoistic staff officers bitten with that urge have probably carried the fairly prudent Marshal Pilsudski, Poland’s virtual dictator, off his feet. The golden cupolas of Kiev and the blue waters of Odessa beckon both Poland and Germany. Hence the alliance, and, check, countercheck, the Franco-Russian entente. Staff officer mentality has much to answer for these days. Military members of the entourage of King Alexander of Jugoslavia, impressed by Nazidom, are said to have urged upon that monarch, a tried friend of the Allies in the war,, the Nazification of Jugoslavak administration, the breaking of the alliance with France and understandings with Germany and Poland. It was this move that M. Barthou had to combat! Alexander has been in a very difficult position for some time. To the old difference with Italy about the Adriatic has been added the Austrian problem. Until this, the major European problem, is settled, real peace is impossible. Any move by Italian troops to prevent Germany from securing control of Austria would be countered by Jugoslavia in the belief that her independence was threatened by both parties. It is in the hope of quietening .Alexander’s qualms in regard to Italy that M. B/irthou has invited Alexander to Paris. He is due there to-morrow. If he can prove to Alexander’s satisfaction that Italy has no hostile designs upon'his guest’s country ‘M. Barthou will not only retain the friendship of an old ally for France but, in the shape of Italy, will add a new friend, and, in view of German aggressiveness, one who will be particularly welcome. Italy and France, so long estranged, are drawing together once more. This, one of the major’moves upon the diplomatic board, has not been easy for negotiators. France is Jugoslavia’s friend and ally, and relations between Rone and Belgrade have been so far from medial that newspaper recrimination mis indulged in mutual accusations of each others’ nationals as being the champion runners away in war. But in a speech at Milan on Saturday last Mussolini seemed content with a comparatively mild protest against Jugoslavian insults. Agreement with France, he said, was imminent. It would be signed at the end of October or the beginning of November. In such manner is the reshuffle proceeding. Does it mean peace or war? One hopes for the best, but fears the worst. There is too clear a counting of bayonets to leave room for false selfcomfort in the assurances of peaceful intentions so glibly uttered by militant dictators and ministers. Yet I would repeat that if war comes it will be by accident rather than intent. There is an awful lot of powder lying about these day*. It is the spark I fear.