THE UNITED STATES

Otago Daily Times, Issue 18747, 28 December 1922, Page 3

THE UNITED STATES

WHAT THE ELECTIONS .MEAN. Written for the Otago Daily limes. By Fban’k H. Simonds. What will be the effect upon American foreign policy of the recent elections? ’ibis question in various forms has been asked from Eurooe, with the apparent conception that the election itself was concerned with foreign relations. The answer, of course, is that the election will \iot have the remotest direct influence upon American foreign policy, and the campaign did not turn on any American relation with the outside world. Hungs remain exactly where they were. The Democrats have not obtained control of ettner branch of Congress, nor have any Democrats or Republicans been elected whoso arrival might have foreign significance. Indirectly the election may have this result: Although the Republicans retain control of Congress by a terribly reduced majonty. they havo to confront on almost inevitable split in their party. Before the election the Oonservatives controlled in the dominant party; in the election many Conservatives have been defeated and bale been teplaced by Radicals; thus the Republican Party has shifted its centre of gravity from right to left. This moans that we are going to have very exciting and absorbing domestic polltics in the next two years. While the battle between Democrat and Republican for the control of the Presidency ,two years lienee has already opened, an even more striking conflict between Conservative and Radical Republicans has begun—a conflict in which the stake is the control of the Republican The last campaign was dull, because there was no striking issue. Mheve was a general apathy and a widespread dissatisfaction with the party in power which had failed to disclose leadership or find answer in legislation for existing evils. Actually the result of the election was largely determined bv local conditions and issues in ihe various States. Yet, local issues would not have had their fatal importance for the Republican Party bad its record in the national Government been more satisfactory. Now, while the Republican majority survives in Senate and in the House of Representatives, there are enough Radical Republicans to destroy this majority if they should either desert to the Democrats or refuse to follow their Republican leaders. Still relatively few’, in numbe>s, they control the balance of power, and can give the Republican leaders the choice between adopting radical policies and losing control. In this situation it should be quite clear that national attention is going to bo concentrated more and more upon domestic political questions, and that means that we shall think less and less of Europe and move <tnci moro of America, that parochial and not international problems are going to occupy us. That, after all. is the one clear, if indirect, fashion in which foreign relations may be affected by election results. Even if the Democratic Party had obtained control of Congress, as it did not, it could not have effected any violent change in direction, and it does not. now desire to do this. Wilson policies were not voteu upon, and the election returns givs no sign cf a change of view, of a reversal of the decision registered in the campaign of 1920. The Harding Administration has suffered what is regarded in the American capital as a fatal blow. The whole future of the Republican Party is terribly compromised. That unity which was temporarily restored after the submergence of (ho Progressive Party has been dissolved. One asks the question now whether the Republican Party will survive or give way to a now party after- a split, as the Whig Party made way for the Republican, two generations ago. But those who now, as Radicals, are going to contest for control are not interested in Europe nor have they any proposal for the reversal of the foreign policy of the present Administration. They arc going to strive to create what has mver existed before in this country —namely, a real Left. There is a very plain possibility of a temporary alliance between labour and agrarian elements. Indeed, the possible combinations in the political kaleidoscope are now innumerable. You can see, however, that with such a prospect, American attention is bound more and more to* turn inward. If some evil genius had deliberately set out to invent a way of distracting American attention from Europe, he could have hardly improved on what has actually happened. Moreover, you have to remember that at the outset the Harding Ad mi ins' ration made a tremendous effort, to.achieve a success in a foreign field which would have domestic consequences. Yet the Washington Conference did not win the Republican vote. As a domestic political asset it was non-existent hi the last campaign. . . , From this the Administration is inclined to blame France, since the French have failed to ratify the Washington Treaties. American official opinion now is likely to be censorious of France, as Mr Hoover’s recent utterances havo demonstrated. But from the Administration point if view the harm has been done, for, oven if the French should now ratify, the campaign is over and the conference is bound to be totally forgotten before another, election armies round. For Europeans the answer to all inquiries about, the American election is that, it was purely parochial in all respects, but for the American living abroad and for the European interested in American affairs from the American point of view.—that is, irrespective of the question of how they may affect Europe,—the results of the flection must have a profound significance. Not impossibly they mark (he beginning of a new era in domestic politics. Not improbably they foreshadow the opening of a period of agitation, chaos, and political turmoil. Everyone here has a feeling that the election results mean much moro than is yet apparent. But such a turmoil would in the nature of things reduce, not ‘ increase. the strength of the tenuous cable which binds us to Europe. Mr Wilson had a vision of America a full partner in world affairs, giving its first, attention to international problems. At the present moment contemporary events seem to promise an America completely absorbed in domestic problems for an indefinite period. The Republican Party has met disaster and fares the prospect of worse, not because the country has changed its mind about foreign questions, but because the Republican Party failed to answer satisfactorily the pressing internal problems. To say it succinctly, the elections do not carry our attention back to Europe but rather to the middle of America, where a political revolution seems about to break out.