THE DANGER IN THE ORIENT.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 18673, 30 September 1922, Page 7

THE DANGER IN THE ORIENT.

The situation in the Orient is still delicate. The latest messages modify a little the impression created by the earlier announcement of Mustapha Kemal’s agreement to a conference. Apparently Kemal has no intention of pledging himself to accept the conference as the final arbiter on the situation. Such an attitude on his part need not necessarily be fatal, it is true, to the prospects of a peaceful settlement as an outcome of the conference* though it conveys a veiled threat that if the Turks do not get what they want by negotia-

tion they will fight for it. Better no doubt, however, that they should figln. after a conference than before there has been any Joint endeavour to talk the situation over. When the Allies formulate their conference proposals they must have been quite appreciative of the possibility that the conference might fail to achieve what was hoped of it. If the claims of the Turks should bo altogether beyond reason, and should Kemal refuse to compromise, the conference cannot very well realise its purpose. Kemal’s refusal, therefore, to bind himself by its results—meaning presumably the decision of the majority—scarcely alters the situation. The fact remains, however, that his participation in a conference is in itself so much gained, for the possibilities of mutual understanding that will be opened up should after aIF be considerable. As an alternative, Kemal has to consider the risk to Turkish national aspirations that would be involved in a resumption of hostilities on his part. His gestures may well be modified after discussion with the representatives of the other Powers. On the other hand the disposition revealed by him in his communications with the British Commander-in-chief is not regarded in official circles as very reassuring. His refusal to recognise the existence of a neutral zone, and the invasion by certain of his troops of the territory so differentiated, are being interpreted in some quarters as indicating a desire on his part to provoke a clash at Chanak. It is not easy to reconcile the Turkish leader’s agreement to a conference with an intention of trying to drive the British from the Asiatic shore of the Dardanelles, for this would mean the frank substitution of the sword for the weapons of diplomacy. Possibly, it is Kemal’s object to demonstrate, up to a point falling just short of actual attack, his refusal to recognise any demilitarised neutral zone. Probably he is bent upon wresting from the situation every strategic advantage which boldness will yield him. This places a severe strain on the British troops, but they can be depended upon to exercise all the forbearance necessary to the avoidance of an actual clash so long as the provocation does not become excessive.