THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES SATURDAY, JANUARY 7, 1922. BRITISH ELECTION PROSPECTS.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 18447, 7 January 1922, Page 6

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES SA TURDA Y, JANUARY 7, 1922. BRITISH ELECTION PROSPECTS.

It is generally anticipated that a general election will bo held ih Great Britain during this year and a broad survey of the political situation undoubtedly strengthens a belief in such a probability. The present House of Commons was elected in ' December, * 1918} immediately after 1 the armistice. Political opponents of Mr Lloyd George then declared that he deliberately chose that time as most opportune for his own fortunes. If a general election takes place within the next few months similar criticism will doubtless he , offered. In the settlement of the Irish if such .a fortunate result proceeds from the present negotiations, Mr Lloyd George would possess an exceedingly strong political card, and if to this is added the progress towards disarmament, backed by proposals for economy—forced though those proposals may have been on the Government—it it difficult to see who can ppssi)ily displace him. If the Irish negotiations should fail Mr Lloyd George would be justified in asking fpr a mandate from the electors in favour of the terms of the settlement that has bebn approved by the Imperial Parliament, and there can be little dqpbt that he wcJtold receive the mandate. / In either event-, whatever the/fate of the Irish treaty, he occupies a strong political position, although in either case, if there is an early dissolution, it will be urged that he is seizing an opportune moment for an appeal to the electorate. No political leader would deliberately choose an inopportune moment for an appeal to -the country if he had any choice* in the matter, and it may be taken for granted 'that an experienced leader, as the Prime Minister niidoubtedly is, will seize the psychological moment to test hi? strength. From almost every point of view an election would be justified. In 1918 the Government could consistently claim that, the war having been won uhder its auspices, it should he entrusted ivith the task of adjusting the peace. New problems calling for quite different treatment are now presented. The serious question facing British electors will be at once very simple and very complex: Who can guide the nation over the perilous bridge of adversity to the safe road of national prosperity? If the choice is not Mr Lloyd George, who then? The elder Pitt declared at a time of peril, “ I can save the country, and no other man can.” The Prime Minister has in effect made a similar declaration more than onoe, and he has given proof of his faith in himself. •“!£ you think about it,” said a writer some time ago, “ no one since Napoleon has appeared on the earth Who attracts so universal an interest as Mr Lloyd George.” That is # as true to-day ns when it was written. It is this hero of a hundred fights who will go to the country to fight for his political life. Strange to say, although Mr Lloyd George controls no political machine, he reigns in a countiy where politic?! machines exert enormous influence. Mr Asquith directs the official Liberal organisation,, but the fortunes, of Liberalism are low. “What is the matter with the Liberal Party?” asks a writer in the latest Nineteenth Century. “ It certainly is very sick and, there is good reason to think, sick unto death. Its leaders are animated by no positive faith and spend their time in criticisms of the' Government.” Cap-

tain Wedgwood Benn, one of the rising hopes of the Liberal Party, very pungently described the failures' of the Coalition in a recent statement *of “ The Case for Liberalism,” but in seeking an alternative for the Coalition he experienced difficulty. “To look at the House of Commons,” said Mr Benn, “the question seems to answer in the affirmative. ■ . Never, surely, within memory was , there a House that seemed less able to produce an Opposition qualified by -its assiduity, parliamentary training, and corporate sense, by the numbers of its rank and file, and by the possession of sufficient leaders of experience to step over to the right of the Chair and undertake the duties of his Majesty’s servants.” Nevertheless h© would replace the Coalition Government by the Asquith Liberals. r , Lbrd Grey 1 and Lord Bobert Cecil would., be necessary to the . success of Mr Bonn’s plan, and for its industrial policy the Liberals would, in his f opinion, need the cooperation of moderate Labour. Lord Robert Cecil, who incidentally abhors the Coalition, would < nevertheless coalesce With Lord Grey in the hope of displacing Mr Lloyd Geprge. Lord Robert -Cecil, the Conservative, would co-operate with Lord Grey “ not because he is a Liberal, but in spite of that fact.” The great obstacle to successful government by a Coalition is the impossibility of following a definite Land settled policy. A Coalition between Lord Grey and Lord Robert Cecil, or between the Asquith Liberals and moderate Labour would be as subject to this • handicap as the existing Coalithm is.' ' The possibility of a coalition of Asquith Liberals and irf extremely, unlikely, because of the : disinclination of Labour to enter into -political alliances.. The Labour Party is endeavouring fb obtain 500 candidates for the coming elections, and its spokesmen express in the'ir prospect of success. At present, however. Labour is not one of the possible alternatives to the Coalition for the reason that ft- is hampered by a narrow outlook and entangled with Communism. The declaration by Sir George Younger, who is head of the Unionist Parly machine, that s the Coalition’s - work is not yet - finished ia said to have upset tlfe calculations of the election prophets, although the safest way to continue the Coalition’s worls may prove to be through a. general election which would give it a new lease of life. From all points of view the immediate prospects seem to favour’ Mr Lloyd George, and, failing the creation of a new party which would owe Mm personal allegiance, the probabilities suggest that he may once more lead the Coalitionists to, victory. %