NOTES ON THE WAR CABLES.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 17325, 27 May 1918, Page 6

NOTES ON THE WAR CABLES.

Bt Shxupnel.

AIR SUPERIORITY AND THE DELAYED OFFENSIVE. No operations of major importance aro reported from any fronts in Europe. I'Vn'.'h air raids and artillery bombardincuts are, however, continually being <"<irriul out. along tho lino from Ypres to tho Champagne. Long distance air raids are also being made behind the enemy's lines in Northern France and in German Lorraine. The effect of these numerous heavy air raids by tho Allies will most likely bo to eausc the Germans to delay their offensive until they have increased and reorganised their air service, sinco the loss of 1000 machines in April, and more since then, must have made a big hole in tho squadrons composing the Germans' air forccis. At the end of last year it was repqrtod that the number of machines possessed by the Germans was between 2000 and 2500. These have, of course, been continually augmented, but the rate of destruction of enemy machines has always been greater than that of the Allies, who have, for their part, been continually increasing their production. To tho AngloFrcnch and Italian service have been added not a few American machines, and in today's messages s/.e are told that a squadron of American fliers is to assist in the aerial defences of Paris. It is difficult to see how the Germans can carry out the now phase of their offensive if they have allowed superiority in tho air to be so greatly on tho side of the Allies as it appears to be. Gothas certainly convey the impression of being very formidable machines, both for lighting and lor bombing. No doubt the armour with which they aro provided will afford soma protection, but it cannot be heavy enough to prevent anything but a hit from an obliquo range from piercing it. The pro- ; tection they have, together with the | number of machine guns they carry, will, however, enable them, with tho assistance of an escort of the smaller fighting machines, to do some useful work in "spotting" and bombing batteries. Being afi they are, very large machines, they must, on tho other hand, offer a good target to anti-aircraft guns and bo compelled to fly high when they are detected. As theso machines liavo been in evidence for some months, tho Germans may bo expected to have arranged for the systematic production and assembling of their parts, but as was shown in the last raid upon London, tho Allies have improved their anti-Aircraft guns and havo invented a new shell wliioh is much moro effective against aeroplanes than the ordinary shrapnel shells which were originally used. As these giant machines must be slower and much more difficult to manoeuvre than the small fighting planes, a very effective method of dealing with them would bo to drop bombs on them from above. So far .however, nothing has been heard of an attempt to bomb a Gotha. It has been suggested that the Germans will begin their now attempt t.o defeat the Allies about June 1, but, without a better air service than they can show at present this is doubtful. There is this in favour of the idea that they will:—that they havo had ample timo to improve their communications as far as is necessary and that they aro in a hurry, despite. the Kaiser's assurance to the German press that the German victory is assured and that " there is no hurry." Moreover, there is now a full moon and the attacks on the Cambrai and Lys front were begun when the moonlight was good, although the atmosphere close to the ground was misty. Where the main effort of the Germans will be no ono seems certain. Those on the scene believe that tho heaviest stroke will be made in the north in the Lys salient, a subsidiary attack being delivered on tho Albert-Mont-didier sectors. This is, however, mero guess wcik. The Germans, having tho nearer lines and the choice of time and place, sinco the Allies are simply awaiting the attack, may launch an offensive not on the fronts where thoy havo gained advantages but where they arc least expected—possibly on tho Vimy-Lens region, north of the Aisne, somewhere from the area round Soissons to Beiry-au-Bae, or in the Champagne. Undoubtedly when they are ready the Germans will attack with overwhelming numbers. In all likelihood they are waiting for 'Austrian reinforcements in order to save the Prussian soldiers. A good deal has been hoard from enemy sources about the 'Germans demanding that the A-ustrians should attack the Italians, and about tho Austrian refusals to send Austrian troops to the west front, but Germany usually gets her own way, and the news from within the two Central Powers is not to be relied upon. MR LLOYD GEORGE ON THE SITUATION. Before treachery snd German sedition destroyed the strength of the Russian giant, Germany wp generally credited with, 1,500,000 troops and Austria with about 2,500,C00 troops on the east front. Mr Lloyd George, speaking at Edinburgh, said that on the eve of the great German attack the Allies aro supremely confident, but he added a slightly cold douche by saying the L T nited States armies had as yet been unable to do more than offset onefifth of the strength which Germany had obtained from the cast front. As Germany has not been able completely to denudo the Russian front either of Germans or Austrian soldiers the most she can have brought or can bring, westward is about 2,000,000. With 2,500,000 men previously there, tho German forces wojld amount to 4,500,000, which will be about the combined strength of the French and British, but, as she has the interior lines of attack, that number would give her an initial advantage equal to between 250.000 and 500,000 men. Germany, however, not only increased her forces on tho west by reinforcements from Russia, but also by new levies and by denuding her fortresses within the Empire, especially in East Prussia and in Posen. It is probable, therefore, that she has managed to bring in or near the actual fighting front close on 5,000,000 fighting men. She is not going to attack without tho chance of overwhelming the Allies with numbers. Tho American offset, then, should be 500,000 men. Of these 250,000 should by row be more or less effective fighting men, us the Americans aro educated, alert, and keen to learn all that is to bo learned, and tbev havo had tho inestimable advantage of instruction by French and British officers, who know all tho ways of the Huns. Mr Lloyd G cor go indicates that not since the war began has he been so free from anxiety. No doubt he owes his present feeling to the fact that the submarine menace has been got under, that supplies of foodstuffs and other materials are now coming forward more freely, and that new ships ave being built that number moro than the Germans are sinking Britain also has four million extra acres under cultivation, so that there is now little fear that the peoples of the Allies and their armies will be put on very short rations Mr Lloyd George is impressed further with the fact that the means taken to meet tho mcnaco of the German pirates, though not yet perfect, will bo greatly improved in the course of tho next three months, just at the time when the harvests from America, and the cast will be flowing towards Western Europe. In the Mediterranean, moreover, the Allies, with the very great help of the Japanese cruisers and destroyers, have, according to rt-pork from Italy, reduced tho submarine piracy to compaiative harmlessness.