THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES TUESDAY, JULY 22, 1913. THE CRISIS IN CHINA.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 15822, 22 July 1913, Page 4

THE OTAGO DAILY TIMES TUESDAY, JULY 22, 1913. THE CRISIS IN CHINA.

The youngest republic of the world, as China can still no doubt claim to be, is evidently destined to experience to the full the dangers which threaten infancy. It is now eighteen months old, and it is menaced with a crisis severe enough to cause the Cabinet precipitately to abandon office. The trouble, which is of a revolutionary character, has originated, it is said, in the rivalry betwixt North and South. A special cause of it is alleged in tho efforts of the President, Yuan.Shihkai, to over-ride the provincial authorities, and the dismissal ,by him of the Taotai of Kiang-si, an act raising the question of his jurisdiction in relation to high provincial appointments, seems to have brought it to a head. The results have been as dramatic as some of the correspondents prophesied they would be. . A number of the provinces, including that of Kiang-si, have practically declared their independence, proclaimed a revolutionary president, appointed a generalissimo of rebel troops, and are prepared to carry their distaste for the present regime to tha oxtremo of civil war. It is not without good reason that Yuan Shih-kai has been called the strong man of China-. He has falsified the contemptuous prediction made at the time he was chosen President that he would not retain power for two months, and it, will be not wholly surprising if he should be able to rise superior to the present emergency. It would be idle, however, to ignore the' possibility that the same forces that drove him into the exile from which he returned not 60 very long ago may, allied to others, again

make his position untenable. In a mandate which ho ksued early in May the President definitely announced to the Chinese people his personal responsibility for the maintenance of law and order, and intimated his intention of dealing severely with disorderly factions. Subsequently to the issue of this manifesto the mercantile community, represented by the Trade Guilds and Chinese Chamber of Commerce at Shanghai, expressed its unanimous I sympathy with the action of the President, and uTged the Government to take steps to put an end to the unscrupulous agitations of professional politicians by which the business of the country, was being seriously prejudiced. This attitude on the part of the Trade Guilds was expected to act as a check upon the exuberant activities of the younger malcontents of the Kuo-ming-Tarig, and to strengthen the hands ; of Yuan Shih-kai in his policy of centralisation. Its effects were detected in a movement of the more responsible leaders of the Nationalist party to come to terms with Peking even to the extent of accepting the presidency of Yuan for a term of years. It is to the credit, of Yuan Shih-kai -with the Cantonese party that he has been a consistent advocate of the introduction of modern methods of education and administration. He has given repeated proofs of his desire to reform the political institutions of China by the gradual building up of a new structure of representative government upon the ancient foundations of the past. If he differs from Sun Yat .Sen and his followers it is not, it has been reasonably suggested, in lack either of patriotism or liberalism, but in his firm belief that the well-being of the -nation can only be maintained in the unbroken continuity of its vital traditions. In such a belief the instinctive conservatism of the masses would be likely to support him.

A good deal probably depends upon how far the President has been attempting to go in a- policy irritating to the refractory elements in China. A Tecent cablegram, which perhaps should be accepted with reservations, stated that his edicts showed that he proposed to attempt a thorough counter revolution making old-fashioned Chinese nationalism the chief plank of the movement, and that he had ordered Confucianism to be revived. At all events it is fairly clear that a considerable section of the Republican party is tired of the President which it assisted in choosing, and Sun Yat. Sen is credited with openly favouring the Southerners in their revolt. This is not greatly to be wondered at in view of previous events. It is not very long -since the man who more than any other was responsible for bringing about the swift revolution of .China from a monarchy to a republic addressed an appeal to the civilised world to refuse to President Yuan Shih-kai and the Chinese Government funds which, he' declared, -would be employed for waging war against the people. In the course of his appeal he asserted that in consequence of the murder at Shanghai of Sung-Chiao-jen, the Nationalist leader and one of the President's chief opponents, people were extremely indignant, and the situation had become so serious that the nation was on the verge of. the most acute and dangerous crisis -. yet experienced. "From the date of the birth of the Republic," Dr Sun Yat Sen continued, '' I have striven for unity, peace, concord, and sincerity. I recommended Yuan Shih-kai for the Presidency because there appeared reasons for believing that by doing so the unification of the nation and the dawn of an era of peace and prosperity would be hastened. I earnestly desire to preserve' peace throughout'the Republic, but my efforts will be rendered ineffective if financiers supply the Peking Government with money that would, and probably will, be used in waging war ■ against the people. If the people are now forced into a life-and-dcath struggle for the preservation of the Republic, not only will it entail terrible suffering to the masses, but it will inevitably ako adversely affect all foreign interests in China." This statement, while showing that the ideals of Sun Yat Sen and the policy of Yuan Shihkai had speedily proved irreconcilable, also doubtless throws some light on the present situation. Early in May, at all events, Sun Yat Sen did not hesitate to express hie fear of a serious convulsion in China and the present outlook, as indicated by the cablegrams, is evidently somewhat alarming. As to the merits of the. position it is most to judge. The task of Yuan Shih-kai, as President of the Republic, must have been one of extreme difficulty, and he is now .accused of having evolved out of a revolution which promised much nothing better than a military despotism, and of setting up a tyranny at Peking. If his methods have been too arbitrary he now seems in a fair way to reap the consequences. In the desire to prevent the Southern provinces from snndering themselves from the North, the only effective instrument to which end he believed lo be a strong central authority, Yuan 'Shih-kai really seems to have precipitated an attempt in that direction.