COMMERCIAL.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 14000, 5 September 1907, Page 6

COMMERCIAL.

Daily Times Oflico, Wednesday evening. BREADSTUFFS. This evening's cables from London convoy the not unlooked-for intelligence tliat sales of Australian ■ wheat cargoes have been mado, at 376 6d and 38s 3d respectively, the latter being the highest prico recorded sinoo 1898, commonly known as " Lciter's" year.. .... I This continuing upward movement in Mark Lalio lias naturally lia<Tits effect upon the Commonwealth markets, and this evening's quotations from Austrab'a show a deoidod advance., Thus, in Sydnoy, whom last week tlio quotation ruled at" 3s lid, the prico je now given as 4s Id to 4s 3d; in Melbourne wheat is said to bo active at 4s, and in Adelaide, whero the prico stood at Js 9id sevon days since, the market is now reported strong and active at 3s lid to 4 o|d. •Tho effect of tho latest nows from London will naturally be to still further enhance the Commonwealth quotations. And what, porhaps, is of even, great importance, so far as prioes.'in Now Zealand aro eon--1 ooraed, tho Australian'flour market, whieli for many weeks has been in a moro or less depressed condition, now .begins to show signs of moving upward. In order to properly appreciate what 1 this •latest advance in Mark .Lane—established, bo it borne in mind, right in the teeth of tho harvests in Europe and America—really portends it may prove interesting to again refor to tho statistical position of wheat. And this wo aro able to do in fairly offoctiyo manner, owing to tho arrival by yesterday's mail of Beerbohm's latest estimate of the ' wheat crop of tho world, compiled in accordance with tho most reliable reports from the . wheat-growing countries available at the end of July.' This estimate, too, was mado up at a time when tho market in Mark Lano' was at its quietest, and whon Australian oargoes arrived "in port had beon sacrificed at from 34s to 34s 3d per quarter, or 4s per quarter less than thoy would command to-day-a contrast which .strikingly illustrates tho advanco in tho market within tho last six weeks.'

Thus, sifter making liberal nllowanco for tho most favourablo harvests possible ill Europe and Amoricn, and estimating tho Argentine ami Australian yields at equal to last year's, Bocrbohm computes the world's wheat crop for 1907 at- 398,750,000 quarters,' as. against 413,080,000 quarters last yctih And upon those figures Beerbohm coniiAents ai follows: — • , Tho possible deficiency compared 'with last year, it will Ik seen, is 5G,000,000 million quarters, and wo have to go back to 1001' and 1897 to find such a relatively small total. Tho avorage crop during tho past five years, it mil bo seen, is 415,700,000 quarters, and the world's.normal consumption now is probably not less than 420,000,000 quarters per annum. Koservo stocks will,. therefore, evidently liovc fo bo freely drawn .upon in the coming season, just-as they wero.in 1901-02 and in 1697-98. With Elicit a prospect one must expcct relatively high prices, to' bo maintained during the coming seatori. Tho position will be bother still appreciated if wo next consider ilie prices ruling for wheat during tho early part of 1898:— , Season 1807-8. (Leiter's Year) ' English Dunedin average ex store Melbourne ' price prico. price 1898. per quarter, per bushel, per bushel. January .. 31/9 .. -J/5 -I/O Fcbtuary 35/1 .. 4/7 .. 4/7 March .. .. 35/7 .. #8 J/4 April .. .. 36/ 4/91 .. 4/4 May m ' 51 5/ Juno 4$ .. 6/ .. 41 In Juno the bottom dropped out of Leiter's corner, and tho market suddenly collapsed. . Now the relative strength of tho wheat position lies in the fact that we have passed what arc ordinarily tho quietost months in tile wheat market—viz., July and August; for, as Becrbohm remarks, "a fine, hot July arid August nover <Tid admit of activity in .tho market, and probably novcr will, no matter what the crop outlook elsewhere may be." And now, in September, prices are elosely'apprpximating to the record attained in Leiter's year— viz., Ws'in London and Ss in Now Zealand 'nnd, Australia, \in May* 1898. That ere many weeks are pa6t the London, Melbourne, and Npw Zealand mar-

.ltets-will again touch these figures appears to leave no shadow of a doubt; tho next question is, How much higher can they go? On tho principle that what has been may bo it. is..interesting to recall the' fact that very high prices ruled • for wheat in the season 1877-8, when tho llusso-Turkish war was being waged. In April, 1877, wheat reached 52s per quarter in' London, and tho following July the top of the market was reached with 68s 9d jier quarter. In tho -following May the price had receded to 50s .to 52s per quarter. In tho local wheat market, business is temporarily at a.' standstill, pending the adjustment of the tariff J for although no one seriously thinlis that the Government will prove so supine as to permit the flourmilling industry to be crippled, if riot, indeed, annihilated, by the removal of tho duty on flour and wheat, thus leaving tho people of Now Zealand entirely dependent upon tho Commonwealth for the breadstuffs supply; yet the'narrowness of the votcon Mr Hogg's amendment has induced a feeling of uncertainty.' Once the matter of the tariff, is satisfactorily settled tho forecast is for a rush of tho into the wheat market, and a period of activity, with probably a decided advance in priccs.

LONDON KAEKETS. Press Association—By Telegraph—Copyright. 1 ' LONDON', September 3. Silver is quoted at 2s 7s,per ounce. Copper: Spot and thrco months, £74; supplies, 29,787 tons. doHveries 28,174 tons, stocks 14,229 tons, afloat. 4200 tons. Tin- Spot and three months, £IGG ss; on spot, 2427 tons,,afloat 5391' tons, stocks 12,393 tons, deliveries 2127 tons. Lead, £19 12s Gd. . ' - . Tallow: Stock 17.05G casks,' imports GG6O casks, deliveries 6139 casks. ... Wheat: Two Australian .cargoes sold at 37a Gd and 38s 3d respectively. The total quantity of wheat ..and flour afloat, for the United Kingdom; is 1,930,000, quartos, and for v. the Continent ' 1,230,000 •'quarters. The Atlantic shipments tfore'; 350,000 quarters. Stocks and shares: Australian and, New Zealand Mortgage Company, f9B 10s. (Received Sept. 4, at 10.'4 p.m.) -. Consols ore quoted at £S1 10s. ~ . HIDE SALES. Press Association—By .Telegraph—Copyright. MELBOURNE, September 4. (Received Sept. 4, at 10.25 p.m.) At the hido,sales priccs wore vory.firm at late rates. Supplies wore moderate. ' WELLINGTON STOCK ECHANGE. . (From Oub Own Correspondent.) . . WELLINGTON, '.September 4. There, was a quiet ione on the Stock Exchange to-day. Buyersoffered 5s Od for Loan and Mercantile, shares without obtaining any. , For Chriafchurch' Meats £10 10s was wanted,- but buyers did not respond. Wellington and Manawata Rails : continue to, be accepted at £2 2s'Gd (cum dividend), arid £3 2» Gd was bid for Wellington Woollens without result.: D.I.C. prefercnco shatei werosoldat£l2s9d, and Mitohelgon Timbers wero inquired for at ss.