NOTES FROM JAPAN.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 13857, 21 March 1907, Page 10

NOTES FROM JAPAN.

JFeou Our Own Cohbespokdent.) YOKOHAMA, January 26. THE' BUDGET. The Government has presented its Budget. to tho Japanese l)iet, and for the moment tho whole nation is immersed in its details. Its gross dimensions are vcvv formidable, totalling over 620 millions of yen, and dwarfing anything ever before attempted in Japan. To begin with, it must be noted that, whereas previous lo ihe lalo. war the State's expenditure-; aggregated only 27C millions, thev now cxcccd 620 millions. The increases give a total of 147,017,504 yen. and, deducting the one solitary decrease, (he net result is a total increment of 118,223,047 yon. 'The decreaso in lho case of tlie Finance. Department is due to the disappearance, of tlie war reserve borne on its last, year's list, hut otherwise its accounts show a considerable increase. What- specially engrosses attention, however, are tho facte—first, that tho sum of tho ordinary and extraordinary increased appropriations for tho. War Department is more than one-half of tho total increment of all the nine departments; and. secondly, that, the army and navy together swallow up 102 millions out of 118, i THE ARMY.

This proves, says a writer in the liewipaper, that the great cause of tho Budget inflation in tho year 1907-8 is armaments expansion. Some time ago the same journal, collating various rumours then in circulation, formulated the conclusion that the slawliug ai'my was to bo increased to 21 divisions, which, when tho two years' period of service had been substituted for the present three vear.s, would bo equivalent io 28 divisions. That calculation, if now says, must now be slightly modified, but only slightly, for ihese reasons:- Two divisions are lo i>e transferred from Ifrnehttria and Korea to Japan, where they, will be expanded into four divisions, iho standing army thus receiving an unequivocal addition of Iwo divisions, which, being added to the remaining two divisions in Manchuria, ami Korea, make a total increment of six divisions, and raises the army from 13 to 19 divisions, If to theso bo added tho Formosan Garrison and the Manchuria Railway Guards, the total docs not . fall far short of 21 divisions. It lias io bo remembered, however, that the Manchuria Railway Guards arc to be (. kcti from tho first and second reserves; and, consequently, they make no addition to the strength of the army on a war footing. The " Nippon docs not spare language in denouncing tho policy here indicated. If it bo intended as a. provision against a war of l-evongo by Russia, it is a fool's dread," and will only prove the moans of provoking such a war.

REFORM IN CHINA. Some time last spring I drew New Zealand readers' attention to Iho strong wave of progressive feeling -which was sweeping over China, and to the various project.? of reform which tho Court party was putting into execution. Naturally, these movements wore eagerly watched in Japan, for in a certain sense they were' like what Japan had dono some 40 years before, and people naturally asked was tho old giant about, lo awaken. For a time it seemed as if (lie reformers wore really making some headway in ihe middle kingdom, and talk of tho gran'-.ing of a Constitution by the Emperor of China was bruited abroad. But as tho months wont by it was seen that the high hopes wore doomed, and now there is no longer any question that tho Reform party in China lias received a heavy sst-baek; Tho Conservatives have found a powerful leader in Viceroy Chang, and the. only tangible results of ihe great Viceroy Yuan's enlightonedi efforts at Tientsin seems to bo that the troops hitherto commanded by himself have passed under the. direct, control of ihe throne, while the troops commanded uy the other Viceroys remain as independent $ Peking as ever. At tho outset of the great reform movement several lornling Japanese journals insisted 011 the cardinal necessity of transferring to tho throne the parcel' of tho purse and ihe power of the sword, and predicted that the great loeal satraps could scarcely be brought into line for such a purpose. The prediction was at once verified so far as concerned tho power of tho purse, but when the Viceroy Yuan set the exampl" of hi>H ; -v. over his four divisions to tho throne it seemed not impossible that the military problem, at ail events, >might bo placed 011 a basis of centralisation Even that part of the programme has failed, however, and, according to present appearances, the Conservatives—in other words, (ho Manchus— have not merely gained a new lease of life, bill have also acquired a material access of military strength, whereas tho Reform party suffers the discredit of defeat plus the loss of the army. To Viceroy Yuan, the true patriot, his opponents have not hesitated lo apply the name of liie Sung statesmen whom all C'onfucianisls regard with horror, and others seem to havo found a still moro objectionable term in their vocabulary of invective—a Buddhist term identifying him with the parasile in the tiger's bosom which kills the otherwise invincible animal.

"TOO FAST." The cry is now "too fast." The, lmgo mammoth must not bo hastened. It must be allowed to take its turns slowly and deliberately-. Haste killed Kaiig-Yii-W:i's essay; haste defeated the less tangible efforts of Sim Yat Sen; and haste has now wrecked Yuan's project. So the telegrams indicate, at all events. Yet r-o one can say that the situation is entirely without hope. It is not merely that those repeated shocks must ultimately loosen the foundations of the Conservative citadel, but also that each of them gets nearer to demolishing it. Kang-Yu-Wei won the Emperor to his side, hut failed with tho Empress Dowager; Yuan Shih-kai succeeded with both Emperor and Empress Dowager, but failed with his brother satraps. Tho reformers, if unsuccessful, have been immensely strengthened. Thoy need 110 longer hide in holes and corners, no longer creep along tbo paths of intrigue and conspiracy; but will they 1)0 in time to save China from suicide? It would be profoundly interesting to obla!n a. view of the background of this strange

picture. Does it not seem that the cry "

"China for the Chinese" was a tocsin deliberateI}'1}' sounded by the reformers to popularise their cause, and that their failure will be followed bv the sinking of that clamour which their quiet-courting victors will bo glad lo see die? But will it die tamely, and will Hie high hopes that, Yuan's so nearly succcssful efforts evoked —will tlicso perish with it? I wonder what Sir Robert Hart thinks of it all? Sir Robert always deprecated tho idea, of goading the Chinese to speed. He detected her constitutional aversion to bo hurried. Yet he believed always in tho reality of her steady progress Events are justifying his diagnosis and his judgment. What we all see is that China's hope of safety from foreign aggression lies in two policies—one permanently clfectivc, the other temporarily palliative. The former is a thorough remodelling of tier national organisation; the latter, perfect quiescence. The second of those plans derives immense potentiality from the Anglo-Japanese alliance. While the alliance lasts, and while China avoids complications she can count on security—she will be, in effect, a pro-

tected State. Hut it is a precarious kind of existence, and to Viceroy Yuan a.nd his followers the danger must bo very apparent. They would have taken the permanent route. FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Speaking before the Upper House on its re-assembling after the New Year holidays, tho Premier had some reassuring things to say concerning foreign affairs. Ho tomarked:—"lt is a source of profound satisfaction, whicl? 1 trust you will share with mc. that our alliance with England has continued to grow in strength and solidity, end that the (rood understanding between tho Empire and tho other Treaty Powers has been marked bv increasing cordiality. With Russia oitr friendly relations have been steadily increasing since the re-establish-ment of peace, and iho negotiations on various questions consequent, upon the Treaty of Portsmouth, including the Commercial Treaty, the Fishery Convention, and iho settlement of expenses for tho care and maintenance of prisoner*; arc now making progress between the two Governments, in a spirit of conciliation. Regarding the school question in San l'raneisco, the Government has taken all due measures, while the American Government is making strenuous efforts to reach a satisfactory solution, ill view of the Treaty stipulations between Japan and the United States, and in the interests of justice and humanity. Tho Government confidently looks forward to a suitable adjustment of the question.

Concerning Korea, it will be noted with I satisfaction that the solidity of our rela- : tions with her has been considerably t strengthened, and that since the establishj mont 'of the Residency-general. the measures of guidance and enlightenment which ! Japan has taken in the peninsula have been ' attended with marked success. As regards : Manchuria, Japan, bv restoring Yintrkow , to China, lias coniDleted the abolition oi the ' miirtiiry administration, and steps are* being | taken -to see that China completes in timo the opening of ihc citics and towns in I iltincliuria in fulfilment of her conventional

engagement. On the other hand the Government of Kwan-t.ung has been established in the leased territory, and the South Matichitrian Railway Company has boon organised with a view to duo working and operating o( the railways under the control of the Government. Taircn has been opened and the Government is determined to facilitate't ha advancement of commercial interests common to all nations in Manchuria."

THE TRAINING SQUADRON TN A .STORM.

Tho Japanese training squadron, the cruiscrs Itsukushima, Matsushinia, and Hashidate, which will eventually visit New Zealand waters, have been forced by a storm to return to Yokosuka. After leaving Yokohama, at noon on Tuesday, the training ships proceeded for Hawaii at tho speed of eight, knots an hour, llear-adniiral Tomiolca's flagship lisukushima taking the lead, and the Hashidate and Matsushinia following at the distance of 400 metres, At about 9 o'clock a strong wind began to blow, and when tho iloot got. about 150 miles off Capo Intiboyo, tho wind turned to a gale, high waves washing the deck-:. The cruisers steamed on, keeping commiipicalion by wireless telegraphy. On the following morning tho storm increased in furv, lie 'cruisers rolling at an angle of from 47 to 50 degrees. Water rushed in Through every aperture, and all the cabins we.ro literally flooded. Towards 7 o'clock the samo evening the storm still increase;!, and communication by wireless telegraphy was. interrupted, when lite Matsushinia. foil out of the line. Tho Itsukushima went in search of the, missing vessel and at about 9 o'clock iho Hashidate was lost, sight of. On tho following day (17th) the Itsukushima was compelled to deviaio from the proscribed route. At about 10 o'clock the wireless telegraphic apparatus having been repaired, signals were despatched in all

wireless lotegrapmc apparatus having been repaired, signals were despatched in all directions without success. Under tho circumstances tho Jlarshin was obliged to cruiso at a slow speed in search of tho missing cruisers, when Rear-admiral Tomoika dccidccl to put back to Yokosuka to replace tho coal and fresh water destroyed during the storm, and also-to report the disaster to the Admiralty. Consequently the flagship stoered for Tatcyama Bay, where she arrived at about 11 o'clock the samo night, returning to Yokosuka on Saturday. During Iho preceding night a communication wire received at the Yokosuka Naval Station from the Ilashidato that sho was safe. A similar communication was also received from tho Matsushima the following morning. The Hashidate arrived at Yokosuka at. 11 o'clock on Saturday morning, arid the Matsushinia about 3 o'clock the same afternoon. No serious damage was sustained, but three boats of the Itsukushima and two boat's of the Hashidate were washed away, wliilo tlie llatsushimn. also lest a boat. During three days all the members of the cruisers had to subsist on biscuits, and were naturally.exhausted when they arrived at Yokosuka, but they were till in a. choorful mood. Between 20 and SO men in each cruiser were nligiilly injured. Repairs having been effected, the squadron again put to sea, and this time I hopo it will get safely to Hawaii, its first port of call.