THE BREAK-UP OF CHINA.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 11797, 28 July 1900, Page 2

THE BREAK-UP OF CHINA.

LORD CHARLES BERESFORD'S

BOOK,

The rapid developments in China seem :to forbode the break-up of an empire of Tour hundred millions, a disintegration which, if it comes to pass, will have had no parallel in nistory. That a. crisis was Hearing has been known for some time ; hut so' many are the complications, both within and without the empire, that it is impossible to predict the outcome.

Need there be a dissolution? Is it Hot possible that the present dynasty may he swept away' and a Chinese one established in sympathy with the Westernised Reform party? No doubt it would have to be under the tutelage of some foreign Power or Powers guaranteeing equality of commercial and industrial opportunity, and security for capital invested, but, on the other hand, guaranteeing to China the integrity- of her- territories. We know that France and Russia are working for territorial aggrandisement; and in the past, instead of taking a firm stand against the dismemberment of the empire, we have joined in, and have had allotted to us, a, "sphere of.influence" too. Hitherto our traditions have bee?a to befriend weaker nations. In the Far East, however, owing to the absence of a definite policy, we have taken advantage of the impotence of - the Chinese to advanceour own interests, driven to it, some will say, as an excuse, in self-defence; but lias not the following of the example of other nations been our own undoing ? We know what blood and treasure we "have lost--in Egypt and South Africa .through the want of a definite line" of conduct. Is it not the same in China? [Will not .the present crisis cost us as much as if .we had taken a firm stand four or five years ago, when she was beaten and humiliated .by a despised, but .reformed nation, not one-tenth her, size? -Then Russia, as an interested spectator, stepped in, practically annexed Manchuria, got railway concessions which imperil" British trade in Northern China, and isolated Corea, to be- absorbed at a more convenient sea-, son. There was nothing to prevent us" acting the friend of China at that time. iWe could have lent the indemnity handed over by China to Japan, and, allied withrthese two nations, could have arranged for the • opening up of China and the frustration of Russia's plan of aggrandisement. But we didn't; And the result? There is hardly a prominent Chinese-who does not openly say that Britain is afraid of Russia, and she is flouted accordingly. That China would have welcomed British intervention at that time is almost certain, for Britain stands for freetrade, while Russia stands for territorial- expansion, prohibitive tariffs, and differential rates. In the one ease China was to admit foreigners to equal rights in trade and commerce, and to keep her empire intact ; in the other, she was to put herself under the domination of a foreign Power and to surrender provinces. Is there any-.doubt which of the two evils she would have chosen, when the lesser was backed up by an irresistible force? But we allowed the opportunity to slip. Since then" corruption, fanaticism, and rival factions within, and the scheming of the nations of the Occident from without, have culminated in the present lamentable outbreak.

We are now face to face with two problems. First, the anti-foreign party must be crushed and some temporary form of government established. This, in itself, will prove a difficult matter. There are too many nations involved, and their interests are very conflicting. Each will play the game to have the winning hand. It is probable that more could have been done at the present

moment, if all were loyal to one head. But the more difficult problem is, the exaction of indemnities, and the setting up of a stable form of government when the present "storm is quelled. What will be the indemnities and rewards? Before . the problem is solved, the world may be plunged into a Titanic struggle, the like of which has never been before equalled. ls Tow, no other nation is so deeply interested in the future of China as the British. Empire is. All the civilised nations are straining for commercial expansion, and China- is one of the undeveloped and- coveted markets. At present, our. Empire controls about twothirds of the import and export trside of China, hence "our concern in the present crisis. But other nations are cutting in, and our commercial supremacy is threatened. We and they pursue two different policies. :All we ask for is the opening tip of China, and equal opportunities for all; but Russia and France (and possibly Gerzfiaiiy) wish to choke off our competition -and- aim at territorial expansion to increase-their trade, and, failing increase of territory, the establishment of spheres of influence. It is easily seen that the policy of these nations moans the narrowing down of our commercial opportunities, and in considering this question we must be very critical of figures," showing expansion, or contraction of trade. It is not .the ac.tual increase or decrease we must look at, hut th.c ratio; and if we fail to increase" our trade in the same ratio as other nations do,- we are. a retrogressive, and not. progressive, nation. Is- this point always kept jn view when we quote figures showing the position of the empire? And are we sufficiently alive to the importance of this question as regards China ? To put it more, directly: Are the great trading nations of the world going to allow; the Powers that seek only territorial aggrandisement to' blockade the ' open door of China, and shut the door in their faces ?. This is the question asked by Lord Charles Beresford in his volume, " The Break-up of China," a book full of interest at the .present juncture. To inquire into this question, and for the purpose of promoting ; British commercial interests generally in the Chinese Empire, -on August 1, 1898, the Hon. Stafford Northcote, Bart., M.P., and president ofjthe Associated; Chambers of Commerce of Great Britain, asked Rearadmiral Lord Charles Beresford, M.P., ,tc proceed to China at his earliest convenienco - and furnish a comprehensive report upon the possible field for business undertakings. Beresford was ' chosen because he woiild have ready access to all sources of information, would be more unbiassed in his report than a Government official, and would as an espert in. military'matters be able to show to what extent, British capital and commercial and industrial enterprise could depend upon adequate protection from the Chinese Government. His Lordship acceded to the representations inacie to him, and set out immediately, arriving at Pekin on October 16. His stay in China extended over nearly three months, and during this time ho called upon the Tsung-li-Yamen, the Foreign Council we have heard so much of lately, inspected the navy and arsenals, reviewed troops, cross-examined generals, sounded viceroys as to their probable course, of action under suggested contingencies, discussed political and other questions with British and foreign consuls, attended meetings of chambers of commerce in the Treaty Ports; and received resolutions, memorandums, and statistics on anything and everything directly or indirectly affecting British interests. When he undertook the mission he did not fully grasp the dimensions of the problem. He found that trading aud commercial questions were inseparable from matters relating to international, racial, and political questions; hence, the exhaustiveness of his '-"■anjziiisfc

In his preface lie tells us that no security at present exists for the future development of British trade in China, that investigations on the spot convince him that the maintenance of the Chinese Empire is essential to the honour as well as the interests of the Angle-Saxon race, and warns us that unless a definite settlement of the problem in the Far East is thought out and brought into effect, war is certain, and the whole civilised world may ho compelled to share in the conflict. The policy he recommends is a simple but bold one. Russia and France are the disturbing factors. Let Japan, Great Britain,- the United States, and Germany combine and insist on noninterference on the part of the territoryseeking and prohibitive nations. The United States and our Empire want trade, not territory. Japan wants trade also, her apparent land hunger being due to a wholesome fear of Russia. Let her know that Russia will be effectually checked, and she will willingly fall in with any scheme that will open up China to the world, but, at the same time, preserve her integrity. Beresford thinks Germany, purely in self-interest, will fall into line with the nations who will bo -able to stay the hands of Russia and France, though the German Emperor's action during the last week or so hardly justifies that opinion. Briefly, then, Greater Britain—we can hardly write Great Britain now, —the United States, Japan, and Germany are to combirie, and, while demanding of China the inauguration, of the open-door policy, guarantee to resist all attempts at the dismemberment of the empire. France arid Russia, as enemies to the peace of the world, are to be curbed in their desires for conquest, but, of course, are to be admitted to equal rights of trade. Following such an alliance will be the gradual reorganising of the Chinese Government, and the building up of an army and navy to help in defence of the empire; and this part of the work Japan is willing to entrust to ourselves.

Is Lord Beresford's scheme a feasible one? It must be remembered that the disintegration of the empire has already commenced. Corea and Manchuria are practically lost, and the spheres of influence already mapped out make the carrying put of his scheme almost impossible, 'for France, Russia, and possibly Germany, will not willingly surrender exclusive rights for equal ones. On the other hand, the navies of the Allies would be able to annihilate the fleets of France and Russia, while Japan, assisted by the Powers in accord with her, and with- a reorganised Chinese army, would more than match on land any army Russia and France could put into the -field. Lord Beresford's conception is ■ a daring one worthy of a Napoleon.

We shall now proceed to notice several points relating td trade and commerce raised by Lord Beresford in his report. First, British merchants and capitalists in China are anxious as to the security of the capital they have already invested, and they require some definite assurance as to what the policy of the British Government is going to be before extending their operations; and the policy, now to be adopted is going to determine the life or death of the British trade with China in the future. Peace must be restored and kept; but to keep' the peace, authority must be properly equipped. We have two-thirds of the trade of the empire, so our course is plain; we may choose to wreck, or we may choose to restore. For some time a -sense of insecurity has pervaded China. This is due to the effete and corrupt condition of the Chinese Government; and the rapidly-advancing disintegration of the empire, duo to the pressure of foreign claims she cannot refuse, is due to the same cause. -The great bulk of the Chinese, however, are honest, acute men of business, whose integrity is known to every banker and trader in the East, and whose word is as good as their bond. If, then, the Chinese are, at the core, a nation to be respected—at any rate, as much as we can respect any Oriental civilisation—is it not our duty as well as to our interests to assist them to resist the disintegrating claims and countex'-olaims which ■ are being forced rvpon them ? Beresford feels most strongly that the pride and profession of Groat Britain to be the champion and chivalrous protector of weak nations have been humbled and exposed ; by, her acquiescing and even taking part in the bullying which China has been, and is being, subjected to. At the present time we are not inclined-to be very sympathetic towards a nation which/has been guilty of the recent horrible barbarities; but we must look forward to the ultimate result, of our past policy, and to the probable result of the policy we must soon inaugurate. It is quite possible that the present lamentable occurrences would never have taken place if we had firmly stood against Russian aggression five or six years ago.

If Beresford's estimation of the situation is a correct one, China's present necessity is our opportunity. He foresaw a civil revolution extending over an area as large as Europe and as populous, and says that the thin line of European civilisation on the coast and a few ships of war will have little .or no effect. What the impending spheres of influence policy would cost in loss through hostile tariffs, and in expenditure of blood and money for defence, it is, he adds, impossible to say, for all central authority would be weakened, and the responsibility .for law and order would be transferred to a disconnected and often antagonistic group of foreign settlers, who would find the work of peaceful administration well nigh impossible. "Nominally, these spheres of influence, siich as those Germany has in Shantung and Russia in Manchuria, may exist as long as a semblance of Chinese authority remains ; but once the people realise tha* authority is powerless, anarchy, rebellion, and bloodshed must ensue." Such in effect, or literally, are the opinions expressed by XSeresford, and formed when he made his exhaustive inquiry. How accurate they have proved to be the events pf the past week or two show. But he goes further, and says that spheres of influence will inevitably lead to war between the European nations. If so, the Far East question is fraught with danger to the civilised world, and that we are rapidly realising.

Can it be avoided? Bere&ford always comes back to. the one cry, which is a refrain right, through the book: "Let Britain cease to follow the counsels of the nations in Peking ; her traditions aud her commercial interests demand that she should lead, not follow." It may be objected that some nations might refuse to co-operate. The .reply is: "Britain has met- a similar objection before in Egypt; and no number of refusals can absolve the four great (.T.uling. nations from coming to the'roscuo of the Chinese Government and their own traders in a moment of imminent peril." There is a danger that the advice given may be lost sight of in the general desire for retribution for the awful events of the past three or four weeks ; but if Lord Salisbury were to let it be known what Britain's policy really is, a great deal of trouble might be avoided.

If Britain, wore to do as Lord Beresford suggests, she would undertake a very serious responsibility; but what- other nation could face the regenerating and reorganising of the empire with greater confidence ? • The Chinese are conservative, find have within them the prejudices natural to isolation :so have we. But they have, too, a traditional and idolatrous respect for authority, and all they'need is that it Ijo honest and good. Cannot we supply that administration?

The lamented Sir Robert Hart showed in his organisation of the Chinese customs what can be done in that direction, and General Gordon,' with his ever-vic-torious army, proved the capabilities of the Chinese as soldiers when properly led, even if we have not lately had sufficient proof of their fighting qualities. A little information on Northern China, and a few figures, will show the necessity for Australasia as well as Great Britain being alive to the necessity for taking an active part in the settlement ;.of the'destinies of an empire which, with traditions extending back 4000 years, seems on the verge of falling- to pieces. Take Manchuria, with its chief outlet, Niuchwang, which, if not already -in railway touch with -Peking, Port Arthur, and Vladivostock, will soon be so. The province is being net-worked with railways, which for a long time can have but little commercial value: they are admittedly strategical. And, as a by-ther way, we may be allowed to ask, Why is it that Russia,■ with her armies in Manchuria at least of 120,000, has not done more to quell the uprising in the north ? Is she manoeuvring for position to control the situation by-and-byc instead of bending her energies to quieting the present disorder ? To return.. The present powerful military position-in Manchuria is completely paralysing British trade in the north, for this magnificent country of nearly 400,000 square miles is already looked upon as a Russian preserve, to be closed against our trade when Russia thinks it safe to do so. Yet in 1897 the British shipping entering and clearing Niuchwang amounted to over 180,000 tons—more than a half of the whole, —while Russia's was 703 tons, made up mainly of a cargo of seaweed, imported by the Chinese and used as a vegetable! Is it reasonable to expect a mercantile nation such as we are to concur in a policy which will leave three million pounds' worth of trade at the mercy of an unscrupulous rival ?, Under the open-door policy, this trade could be increased almost. indefciitely, and Russia would have equal opportunities with ourselves.' Then there.is the province of Mongolia, which Russia is aiming to- bisect with a railway from Lake Baikal through Urga to Peking. This region is the'great horse-breeding ground for the whole of China, and whoever possesses it will control hordes of irregular cavalry,' which have before now overrun the whole of China, but- which could be trained, and would become as fine a body of horsemen as any in the world. The value of horsemen has been too well (demonstrated in our South African campaign for us to point out the commanding position the nation holds which controls this region. Lord Beresford goes as far as to say that with Russia in possession, there is nothing to prevent her from sweeping down to the centre of China—(What would Britain's sphere of influence in the Yang-tse he worth then?) —and from the centre to India. Then there is the question, Are the immense military preparations in Manchuria necessary for the holding of Manchuria, or are they in readiness for. a contemplated move on Pekin ?

We gave Niuehwang just noiv as an instance of how British trade will be affected by the partition of China into spheres of influence. Under the same conditions, trade with Tientsin and other northern ports would be similarly choked off, especially with a threatened onward march of the Northern Colossus. In the south the French will act in a manner similar to her northern ally, and, further, even disputes our right to the Upper Yang-tse, basing their right to that region on the fact that the Upper Yang-tse is not so-called'by the Chinese, and is therefore not included in the British sphere of influence—an instance of restriction of trade and also of Lord Beresford's assertion that spheres of influence will inevitably lead to war or surrender.

The " Statesmen's Year Book" gives the Chinese' imports and exports for 1898 as about 353 million taels, of which nearly 226 millions came from, or went to, Great Britain, Hongkong (British), or India,, the rest of the commerce being divided among the other nations. Put in English money, British trade with China in 1898 amounted to about 34 millions sterling, the rest of the world to about 19 millions. We must remember, too, that the trade of Hongkong, which is about a million a week,-will be affected by the policy adopted. Are we,; then, to advance, remain stationary, or progress with these other nations?

After, what appeared in our previous article, and what has appeared in this, our readers will appreciate Lord Beresford's summing' up, which reads something like this: We are certain that the Chinese will fully appreciate the manifold benefits of the open-door policy, and will do their utmost to maintain lib. The development of their commerce, industry, and natural resources is equally dependent upon its being upheld by the strongest and freest of all nations, to whom tile Chinese with their great aptitude and inclination for trade have had a strong leaning. In addition, the justice and liberty that characterised the British laws and Constitution, the perfect and impartial protection' which Great Britain affords to all who dwell or trade under her flag make her a favourite with the Chinese, so that whenever Britain gives a clear indication that she will insist upon the open-door policy the Chinese will not be behindhand in tendering their support and adherence. At present, that support will not be worth much.' Her army is a number of independent units, without transport, equipment, or ambulance corps, and are in various stages of perfection, and as variously armed, and it is only a question of time .when the slaughter of a few thousands will cause it to melt away. The empire is nearly rent asunder by internal dissent-ions and rival factions. Her officials are the most corrupt and notoriously incompetent; her revenue may or may not be insufficient foi the purpose? of an efficient government ; she is perhaps rather badly taxed instead of over-taxed, seeing that it is calculated that only from seven-tenths to four--fifths of the revenue received reaches the State coffers. But these and other evila will disappear under the resolute application of the open-door policy, and the assumption of the executive control of the empire by the British, assisted, by the other nations who wish trade, and not territorial, expansion. Is Beresford asking us to undertake too much ?

— There was an interesting tea party at the West Ham Workhouse recently, when'a party of Home 20 old women assembled to do honour to Darao Stock on. the attainment of her centenary. Her hundredth- birthday wa3 on April 12. but the limitation's of her environment, and the exigencies of her entertainer, Mrs Carr, served to delay tho delights of the occasion. Of the 20 present none wore less thau 86 years old. Dame Raehael Perry is 103 next Michaelmas, and rhe old lady, with duo respect to tho centenarian, seemed to claim half tho honours of the day.

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