THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

Otago Daily Times, Issue 11253, 25 October 1898, Page 6

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

(FROM OOK OWK COKEBSPONDENT.| LONDON, September 9. Notwithstanding the rivalry of the Soudan victory and the Dreyfus scandal, the Czar's so-called " disarmment " proposal still keeps well in front, as the subject of public interest, alike in Europe and in America.. Fresh light has been thrown upon the sudden complaisance of Russia toward England and on tlio issue of the Czar's disarmament— or rather "no increased armament"—manifesto with the concurrence of his Ministers. That lie himself was, and is,' perfectly sincere and single-minded in making the proposal I do not doubt for a moment. Nor does anyone who has had the opportunity of learning from really authentic sources the true character of the young Emperor and the influence for good exercised by his pretty young wife. But it is felt that had not the.Russian Ministers seen very strong reason's of public policy in favour of the proposed course they .would have continued by some moans to prevent the issue if the liistoric rescript. One reason 1 explained last week. The Russian finances are seriously embarrassed, and are in dangei of enhanced straitness owing to the disastrous dearth a-nd famine which prevails over a large part. of the Empire. There was, however, a secret motivo which may perhaps have been tho most potent of all. Do you remember my mentioning just a month ago the deliberate opinion of a great naval expert, given privately, that if England and Russia, went to war. just now England could "bottle up" tho Russian fleet or sweep it off tho seas as she- chose? Well, tho former is what actually happened! When that ill- I advised telegram to Kruger set England aflame the British Government instantly mobilised the fleet—not ostentatiously, but under the colour that naval manoeuvres were contemplated. And Germany promptly "explained." In this case a different protagonist had to be met and a different course was adopted. There was nothing at all resembling a miniatory mobilisation. No; first the usual' naval manoeuvres were stopped. The South Wales coal strike afforded a good and reasonable excuse. Then began a series of apparently unconnected movements of ships. One was sent here, another there. After an interval two more went to the former point, and-perhaps three.to tho latter. And so on. Some went as guard ships, others just for practice, or training. There was nothing to which the most sonsitioo foreign Power could reasonably tako exception. But one fine morning tho Russian Government awoke to the fact that at every point where their navy could operate or oven emerge from harbour, a British squadron, greatly superior, was close at hand on the watch and able at a moment's notice to pounce upon the Russian vessels with such immense advantage of force and position as to render the Russian naval situation as impotent as was that of the Spanisli fleet against tho American. In plain terms, England had "•bottled up " the Russian fleet. Alike in Europe and in Asia, no Russian squadron could move with hestilo intent without rushing upon certain and profitless destruction. The BalLic and the Mediterranean were equally .barred, —the latter by both its exits, the Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal; while in Chinese waters a British fleet had gradually assembled which could have. knocked Port Arthur and Talien-Wan both to pieces, and could have smashed up ot starved out any Russian warships in either of those newly acquired ports, while England held all tho steam coal in the East. All was prepared, and it only needed the word of command to

" Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!" But Russia, unlike English soldiers, does know when she is beaten. Directly the triple difficulty of the situation revealed itsolt conclusively to the Russian Ministers—the imanoial strait, the lack of coal or coaling stations, and, finally, the march stolen upon them by the British fleet—they bowed smilingly, with Russian politeness and accepted the inevitable —for .the time. ! . . The latest international sensation is the announcement of a specific " friendly agreement" between-England and Germany as to various international questions; virtually a treaty of friendship which might in certain instances involve " offensive and defensive alliance." Some weeks ago I told you that there was a secret understanding between England and Germany which rendered it certain that the latter would not be found by Russia s side in the event of Anglo-Russian complications. And now the secret is out. Once more the Pall Mall Gazette scored ;by being lirst m the English field with the news, as it did with Mr Gladstone's falsely-contradicted determination to resign. Mr Astor^is well served m respect to those advance " tips. . However your "tip" was earlier still, and it is now definitely announced that an important understanding has been come to with Germany, not only with regard to Ohina, but also as to Delagoa Bay and other moot points. It h rumoured that England, with Germany s concurrence, will lease Delagoa. Bay from Portugal for 50 or 75 years. And Germany will favour England's action in Egypt, agreeing to a change in respect of the ' Mixed Tribunal " and other matters. Altogether the An<*lo-Geman "understanding" seems likely to prove quite as substantial and definite as the Anglo-American or the Franco-Russian; probably more so than the latter. It appears at last to bo recognised that England and Germany can well pursue their respective courses without any collisions or clashings. And perhaps something- of the old kinship has asserted itself, just as it did in the case of America when an actual crisis arrived. Thus altogether quite a theatrical transiornintion scene lias come off in the international situation. Russia .has not only drawn in her horns, so far as England, is concerned, but has, by the Czar's rescript; virtually ended the Russo-Freneh alliance .by intimating plainly that it would never bo used for the solo purpose which gave it value in French eyes—the revanche against Germany and the recapture of Alsace-Lorraine.. So Russia ana France arc not msrely isolated just now, but are not even in mutual accord. Add to this the virtual triumph of.England in China and the brilliant demonstration in the Soudan alike of. British prowess and martial skill and of England's determination to hold Egypt as long as sho chooses; also'the cordial entente established between England and America-, and it will be soon that all in a moment this country is revenue! as holding'a position so powerful and commanding among the nations that those who mocked at her apparent weakness—as indicated by the inconsistent and still inexplicable maunderings of her .... misters—are obliged to " climb down ' and eat their own words, which, as Mr Riderhood feelingly remarked, "is a unsatisfying sort of food." I need hardly point dut that those latest revelations afford no explanation of all those strange Ministerial utterances—on the Pre inier's part especially. Why. should Lord Salisbury have "backed and filled." and lacked about and shifted hither and thither when he had such a strong and clear course before him? That is a complete puzzle. "With Lord Salisbury's utterances in view, "people- generally will hardly believe that the present more satisfactory position of affairs can possibly bo due to any skill or good management on his part Yet if all the latest developments of the international situation work out as they seem likely to do, Ministers will meet Parliament next February with a record of success perhaps tho most brilliant of the century. Is it not then all tho more pity that success should bo so sorionsly discounted by inept and unfortunate speeches? However, wo can only hope that all will turn out well, and that the public will accept the substantial facts, and ignore tho unlucky words. But now a fresh trouble has arisen, which may yet tax to the ut7nost the capacity of our Government. A sudden rising of the Mo-hammed-ins in Crete has resulted in tho massacro of the British Vice-consul and a large number—variously estimated—of tho Christian population. All tho Consulates, except tho Austria.!, have been burnt, and many British soldiers and officers killed and wounded. It appears that for some time iiast the admirals have been desirous of obtaining possession of tbo Dime, of Octroi, in Candia, and notico to that effect has been given to tho town. On Tuesday the admirals notified Colonel Reid, of tho Highland Light Infantry, commanding Candia. that they wished him to take possession of tho Dime. Colonel Reid remonstrated, with tho admirals against this course (the Daily Mail's correspondent says), but with6ut effect. He took with him a picket of bis own apparently, and proceeded to tho offices of the Dime and demanded possession. Thereupon a'discussion onsucd. between the colonel and the Dime dflicials. "While it was proceeding a British sailor was stabbed in the bock. As ho'fell his rifle went oft, killing a Moslem. General disorder followed. Tho troops, hopelessly outnumbsved and fired at by hundreds of guns from tho street windows, retreated to the \v:\terside. Tho dead body of Lieutenant Haklane was carried off by his men, but thoir comrades' bodies thoy could not recover. Four of the crew of the gunboat Hazard, which had to fire on the town, were also killed. Everything testifies to the gallantry of Colonel Reid and his troops. . They held a position near the Customs House—tho sea ran high, and it was not easy to embark —for five hours, under a terrific fire from the windows and ramparts in tho neighbourhood. They succeeded in rescuing their wounded and recovering tho bodies of the killed. A guard of eight British soldiers, with about 60 Christians, who took refuge in tho Greek Cathedral, are safe under the protection of Turkish troops. Colonel Reid was offered assistance by the Christian chiefs, but declined to accept it, There seems little doubt that Edhem Pasha, the commander of the Turkish troops, must have connived at (his attack, even if he did not directly instigate it. Ho professed to be powerless to control the mob, and not to have heard of the rising till too late; but this latter excuse is manifestly absurd, and as to tho former one, seeing that he had 4000 Turkish troops at hand, that seems equally absurd. ilt is oven asserted that Turkish troops tool: part in the rising, and deliberately fired on the British soldiers, lulling.several. I observe that Mr Chamberlain, when interviewed at New York, distinctly confirmed the report that England and Germany had come to an understanding, - which had been embodied in a signed agreement. Ho was careful to explain that this did not amount to an offensive and defensive alliance, which few people supposed that it did, but it is seldom necessary or worth while- to go as far as that nowadays. If you do it does not amount to much. All depends on tho circumstances. But a definite signed understanding ia a very definite and useful thing, which cfton renders an offensive and defensive alliance a thing of supererogation. Let us hope it may bo so in ! the nrescnt case.