GERMANY'S INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK.

Oamaru Mail, Volume XLIV, Issue 14008, 12 March 1920, Page 2

GERMANY'S INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK.

(By Lloyd Balderston.) Germany is "kaput. ' This is- the- lefrain 'that the whole German people sings, as though by order, just as in other days they sang that Germany \wi.-> "ueber alles." Business men lnvaulm adopt, in talking with citizens of Allied countries and especially with members of Allied missions, a tone, ol hopeless pessimism. . . • But to all this there is another side. Among themselves, even before outsiders if they have denied and wined | well, the German business men, the i manufacturers and big dealeis. .111 not Iso cast down as they would like the world to think. Many of them believe Germany's "will "of work will pie\.ul over the difficulties made by the liaidhearted Entente.. In this story T. propose to set down some of tlie Tacts about, the industrial outlook here as 1 have learned them through a short personal investigation, and questions addressed "to Allied officials who liave talked freelv and met with free responses from Germans whom they know. The junker class, the old agrarians who ran the country in former days, b'elieves itself ruined. There is no camouflage in their tale of nnserj. They are losing most of their wealth. Their political prerogatives are dwindling fast. Most.of them have all their wealth in land and live stock, and when the hew capital tax is imposed thev capnot pay 111 cash, but must hand over part of their estates, to the State. Land so seized is to be divided into small allotments and sold on easy terms to peasants; attempts made so far to settle ex-soldiers industrial workers 011 farms, I ww told here, have proved unsuccessful.

Tlie discontented Junkers are monarchist to a man. but most ol them appear disgusted with the Hohenzollerns, and unable to suggest- a candidate for the throne. In the office of a J raker, 1 saw to-day imposing photographs of T-lindenburg and Ludendorff, covered with decorations, and linden, these two ] snapshots' of Scheidemann and Elbert-111 bathing suits, fat, wet, foolish .snul bourgeois they seemed. Below .was the legend. "F.inst und Jetzt" "Then and Now.!" But the Junkers are not taking their extinction lying down. Most ol the army officers are with them,/ they ar© I carrying out a strong" nationalist propaganda in the country, and I am told with some success. Especially m East Prussia and' Bavaria, their efforts inflamed the peasants against the Govei 11Tnent' and in favov of "the old ovclgi things. But if the backbone and brains of Germanv enn he trusted, the nidustrial and financial leaders, these Junkers are fighting a hopeless battle, ihe heads of Industrial Germany rejoice in the extinction of the' great hind magnates who looked down / 011 the big business men, patronised them and sneered at them. . The fate of Germany, in these next years depends upon her industry. Can she "-et back to work, pay her debtv and keep alive? Under the economic terms of the 'peace treaty, she cannot. On this point industrial Germany agrees and if industrial Germany still does not despair, it is because no German believes the economic clauses will he carried out. The Entente in its own interest, if it wants any indemnities at all, must permit the revival ot German: economic life. . The chief pre-occupations at the moment of German industry are labor troubles, and the coal shortage No more serious strikes are expected thi winter, because the big unions expended most or all of their strike funds in the great struggles last year By next spring, when the strike funds have been replenished, it is hoped that even- .if there are more walkouts the industiial position will be such that-economic paralysis of the country need ? not be

Nob so much the high wages demanded. as the shorter hours of work, alarm the great- capitalists. They are hopeful, however, that they can educate the workers to the belief that ior Germanv to recover .niust. work longer and harder than the American or the Frenchman And thev point out. a most important fact which I think is not abroad.

To buv raw materials •in the- woild! markets with the mark worth two cents is indeed, difficult, but. business enterprise has a. compensation in. the latt that, labor is cheaper than in anj &n----■toKo countrv. The German worker costs his employer, in teims of leai money value,' not- half as about, one-fifth as much as the Fiencti and British and one-tenth as much as the American business man n. iS to Accordingly German enterprise tends to turn to businesses 1 which leqinre lutlo raw material but much laboi. 411 industries lust. now are badly aifectod bv the coal shortage. Some <>"- man coal is going to Prance; how liiuchf T: sliall not undertake to - having recently heard the claims at.the French that, they were getting nothing but a. little soot, and now being toicl here that France: is taking almost. all German mines. Somebody i§ ljrng ; <>ucl the odds are. it is the German. .But there is a. serious coal crisis here. Certain great German' firms, thao control coivl mines as well as engineering and steel plants, are using vhen position to make enormously rich contracts. Names and instances have been furnished] me. A great firm \vill ; nsfc twice" the market price- for a big Pfe fitineeritig job. It gets the contrac against a rival concern that .has 110 coal and that-bids half as much, for the firm with its coal can do the woiH in the time Specified, and the .other firm cannot. This coal monopoly m :tlio hands of a' few big interests is a- scan r daf with which the Government rfeems unable to deal. ' . The Government her© at present ap- | pears to be completely dominated >\v , the great industrial and financial interests. ■ A secret- council of the interests passes on what the government. proposes to do. If the f -°V, ' cil disapproves, it recommends that tin, proposed action be dropped, and Hcrliners tell you it usually is dropped. The "will to work" is reviving among 'the industrial workers of Gorman\. This interesting and hopeful fact is admitted on all sides. The belief that higher wages and shorter hours will solve all economic ills seems to .tie waning. Among senior members ot industrial Ptaffs the old spirit of nlpddin <» hard work is- especially , noticeable- most of these men are 111 then; r.fficcs at eight in the morning, cat their lunches on tlie_ir tesks, _go out . JVvi- dinner and are hack'on the. ,iob, until well into the evening. . Germany's greatest trouble is lack ot raw materials and finished goods." Stocks in the. country m 1914 have been consumed, others cannot be imported because the exchange is so '.ufavorabte. A temporary., -large, credit from abroad, so that the country could! be restocked, would be a good investment from the viewpoint of Allies, are waiting to collect indemnities ac- ■ cording to Allied-finance experts 011 theK - Austrian goods are on sale in. the Berlin shops, although Austria, is mil', worse off than Germany.. , Austria s more desperate economic position, ncr worthless currency,: has induced her manufacturers to sell abroad even cloi -i--ing. for want of which the people 01 Vienna perish with the cold. _ Russia is Germany's greatest dream and her greatest terror.. i roin Russia proceed anarchy and -civil . war. biu in the Russian markets lies the hope of Germany-—the. only hope—tor eeor nomie recovery.

"While- German engineers and export houses prepare to Hood . Russia ltl woods" manufactured especially lor Russian needs, the shadow government in Berlin vacillates from day to day in,its -policy towards the Bolsheviks and the border States along the. Baltic. From all that' I can learn. the Government here is not likelv to recognise or or>en trade with the Soviet ppwer at Moscow unless and until the Entente blockade is lifted. Germany is not the orie fact about the war iipon whicli all ••:••• Germans excepting: Spartacists a°rce is that the ruin of the Fatherland is due "to the peace of. Brest Litov«k 'lnstead■ of coming to terms with the Bolsheviks, the Germans are now convinced-- t-hey . should have. marclied, in.tq Petrograd and Moscow, overr "thrown Bolshevism;; stood 011 the defensive " in the west, and organised

Russia for their own purposes. •!« this work they would have haa tin; support of the present Whites , .t 1 the propertied classes m Russia preler German to Bolmk-v-ilv 1u1^...But it is too late lor all this now. An armed adventure 111 lluhSiA is im'"possible, for Entente troops would cross the western i rentier ot-,L»c-i-ma/i.\.-if she tried to recoup licr losses 1.1 tlu, e--i«t; moreover, the Geiman soldii 1 s sick .of strife. He would not ;u prosent countenance a louign a .1.. So Berlin is watchfully waiting. "Assume," J. said to an official ne'e, •"that Kolchak and Denikin are destroyed, that the Bolsheviks control all Russia excepting the border Stiitcs and the part of Siberia safeguarded by the Japanese. W 7 ill Germany then recognise the Bolsheviks and trade with them P.' . _ "We shall be guided by the poh<\ of the Entente," he replied.- flhe. ; Entente knows our position.. Our exchange makes it impossible to buy raw materials in America, or western Europe. If we are to get to worl: and meet our obligations we must M-vc 1 markets. Those markets exist in lins- ! sia: But we have .been asked" i-v tr.n j I Entente to blockade Russia. Very | i good. We are at the mercy the | Entente, we do as we are told." i Germany lias hoped that some day I the Eentente -will be disgusted u.ui it-lie spectable of anarchy in the east, and will give Germany perniissior. to put things right. . German industrial interests are also keenly interested in Sineria, ami Berlin is full of keen Japanese business men . making contingent- deals lor cooperation in the Siberian trade. It r. difficult lor an American to hnil out what these busy Orientals are .don-.g. but one. of them told, me proposal.* : have recently been -made h\ Gcimanv •to educate large contingents of Japanese mechanics 111 Germany. would rather in many ways come to you fo learn,'' said this uncomplimentary Japanese, "but von come to (>einiany. and when we get here wo iindi they' know so very much more than von." Later I was told by a Grrmaii ofl.eial that the Japanese Government will not allow .the proposed inliux ol Japanese workmen mlo Goimaiiv. because Tokio fears that these men woiihl return home filled with radical, ij not • Bolshevik, ideas, and spread di.M (intent Among the relatively badly paid labor 111 .Japan.- Accordingly, .hip.ui f is proposing that' Germany send i: small number .of highly-trained in~ >• sLructors to Japan, where lh<\ c.n. - teach German technical skill and bo - carefully watched, so that they may b have no chance to teach dangerous I doctrines.