IS AN EARLY ELECTION LIKELY ?

NZ Truth, Issue 1241, 12 September 1929, Page 1

IS AN EARLY ELECTION LIKELY ?

Wool Kings Are Said To Be Behind Opposition With Guarantee of Large Fighting Fund

SPECIAL REVIEW OK POUTICAL SITUATION

SIGNS are n ot wanting^ that ' the remnant of the once powerful Reform Party is restive m the

shade of Opposition, and that they •Would go; to almost any . lengths to force another appeal to the country.

Never m recent years has the tide of general debate m the Hbuse of Representatives flowed so swiftly, : and seldom m the history of New Zealand's political life has feeling been tinged with the same degree of acrimony and petty spitefulness. _ , The Reform Opposition has lately grown greatly daring. Even backbenchers dp not hesitate to twit the Veteran" Prime Minister concerning the insecurity of his position, and he is constantly reminded that his is a one-man Government. .

.■ ''The Prime Minister must watch his step," cautioned the Reform member for Palmerston North (Mr. J. A. Nash) m the House the other evening. "He is sitting there, bolstered up by the Labor kingmaker and his supporters, and the right honorable gentleman must" be very careful what he does. I '- tell him that the Palmerston North deviation may havei been stopped by his Government, but it has been stopped only for a very little while." '; .).;•

Sir Joseph Ward was not slow to accept the challenge, and m an interjection full of emphasis he told his opponent 4 that the Opposition would have to be careful what it did.

This sort of -thing goes oh every day, and the Labor Leader, Mr. H. E. Hoi r land, sits silent. He holds the keyr position, and he knows jt. By arrangement with. Mr. Coates he could put the Government out of office at any tipie, but that would not suit the Labor Party's plans. •."•■'■'," .'

A party cannot venture into the turmoil of a General Election without substantial v financial preserves. The struggle of 1928 crippled Labor's resources, and even the well -organised Refdrni 'Party was left witlr . sadly depleted funds. • • „•

What has happened since? There are good grounds for stating that the Reform Party has been assured Of ample ;;fundi3 to flght another, .election if that should ; be necessary before three years have elapsed.

(By "N.Z. Trutli's" 1 Special Political Correspondent). -

j The pulse of (political, life m New Zealand is quick- j 1 ening. There is much speculation regarding the pro- | 1 bable outcome of the present position, and, to use a J | v phrase coined m the war, the lobbies of Parliament j | Buildings are "as full of rumors as a troopship. ' '. Is | | another General Election imminent, or are the opposing | 1 parties merely putting up a smoke screen to hide their | |, snamming? ' > . I

The reason is, not far to seek. Wealthy landowners — the Dominion's "Wool Kings'^fear that the Ward Government's land taxa-. tion proposals, its earnest efforts to prevent land aggregation and its policy of breaking up great estates, will touch their pockets as they have never been touched before. "

What is not generally understood is that the Government's land tax and mortgage- exemption reduction proposals, as outlined m the Budget, have not yet been introduced. The other revenue-rproduc-irig proposal, the extra one per cent, primage^ which is to operate for only twelve months, became , operative the morning after Sir Joseph "Ward made "his Budget public

! Now, it does not need much political understanding, to realise that, if by any^ means Sir Joseph Ward could be; prevented from extracting more money from the wealthy landowners, a - small but powerful section of farmers would be immensely satisfied; . y

It is freely stated that the "Wool Kings" ' have promised ■'. the Reform Party all the funds necessary to fight a political campaign if, .Ward's proposals can be frustrated. '■;.'■

Some, m close touch with the inner circles of the Opposition Party, .'. go so far 'as to assert that' the' big landlords

have guaranteed, from £20,000 to £ 30,000 as a fighting fund. ,: . If this is so— and there are many things less likely m the present complicated political situation*— Reform's sudden boldness m challenging the Government at every turn ; can be understood.

Seasoned political general that he is, Sir Joseph Ward senses .the position ' full well. His prescience m party politics and parliamentary moves is too. well known to need any elaboration here. It is /unlikely that Sir Joseph would shirk another appeal to the country; indeed, it is commonly stated m party circles that he would welcome another General Election. One factor which influences his "viewpoint is that his every success arid achievement is dependent upon the Labor. Party's support. '; \

. ."' Should Labor fail him, the. position wou.ld 'be critical^ This means that concessions: must be made to Labor whichi. were the States of the House otherwise, Avould never be couiiten.anced. ■■■' ..-.■■ . ■ •■."■' ' .'.'■''■ ■•' '■'■•' - ' ■ '

It is only natural that Sir ; Joseph Ward should find His position irksome and 1 distasteful. ■ ... /

;The Labor "bolster which'V'props himi is not as r satisfactory as that solid body of support which would be his, lie believes, should the ■' country's feeling ,be tested again. "". • .

The Premier has shown that he means business, ttoat people will be given a chance to make good on. the land m large ■ numbers— as witness the Land Bill introduced m the House last week— that New Zealand's young manhood will not be left oh the unemployed market, rapidly becoming unemployable, and that, generally speaking, his Government is prepared to do many of. those things which the previous Administration failed to do. With one or two exceptions, the men who surround Sir Joseph Ward may not be brilliant' — some mem-, bers of his Cabinet have already proved disappointing — but there is a good leavening of sound business sense among his Ministerial: colleagues, arid this has created a feeling of confidence not of the manufactured variety. Sir Joseph knows this, and it is unlikely that he will brook much obstruction m writing his proposals into the laws of New Zealand. , Events may show that the Labor ■king-maker,, whether 'he likes^ it or^ hot,! may have to lead his .team of candi- ' dates "into the arena of the General Election '{before scheduled time. That Mr. Holland is 1 enjoying . his present influential position, backed by the largest/party he has -yet led, goes] without saying. ' ■ j But always m the horizon is the mirage of . real poweri Mr. Holland dare not risk- a plunge i m the 1 stormy seas .'of a campaign till he can point to some gross blunder on" the part of the Government. . ; ■■ I That is patent; biit" will Sir Joseph Ward' 3 statecraft avert that blunder? There is : another important factor which influences the present delicate position. The Prime Minister reserves to himself , the right, to .resigns •■,■: : If he did that, would 'the GovernorGeneral -:' grant , a : . dissolution ? ' v The probability 'is . that- he would. • . In that case, the issue on which the United Party would .go to the country would be that of securing a sound, safe working majority. <. .

That would be a trump card, and. played* at the right moment, would have a good chance of ending the present - unsatisf actory , ; ••■; three —party stalemate. .'., v;- - : - ;' -: ■■■■■- ■ .-f '.- l - ■ •'• .--.'•-.•.-■ ■