THE GREASY POLL

NZ Truth, Issue 881, 14 October 1922, Page 6

THE GREASY POLL

SOME OF JH^ CLIMBERS; Political Probabilities and Possibilities THE COUNTING OF UNHATCHED CHICKENS

Politics and horse racing are first cousins m one respect — no good thing is quite a certainty* till after the race is run. This year the uncertainties ■constitute a record, for truly candidates are very tangled m most parts, falling over each other and threatening the very devil to the people's vote. In a few electorates the going looks fairly straight, m others anything but that, and a five -minutes' once-over of a few of the constituencies won't do any harm, and probably not much good either, as far as poll results are to be concerned. It will be interesting. So enough. Reform and Liberal have their troubles with the selection of candidates wherever one looks, while Labor, with Labor Representation Committees m each district, finds a plethora of candidates, and the choice of the right man — from Labor's point of view, of course-r-most difficult; but more of Labor's chances later m this column. Let's make a casual selection of electorates by sticking a pin m a map at haphazard and writing up the prospects accordingly. WAIKATO. There is a new seat there for someone. The population having gone down m the South — shameful of those Southerners hot to listen to the old, old song of keep the cradles full and hang the expense — a new seat had to be found up North, and so J- A. Young will tackle the new electorate of Hamilton, practical^' the town and little more. That seat has been a difficulty to both sides. J. F. Petrie announced himself recently as LiberalLabor candidate, but he has been repudiated by Wilford apparently, and has cancelled his meetings ancl left for other parts. No one appears to know much of him as a possible politician, and m any case it appears as if he is altogether out of that lot. Then someone wanted to know why A. Scholes and someone else why Fred. Lye should not be m the running, and the delegates got together and decided that Fred., a prominent dairy farmer, by the way, was the right man for Liberal-Labor. All the best cow farmers don't back Massey, not by a long way, so don't think so. Reform has at present on their little list for those parts Mervyn Wells, (Cambridge), J. A. Johnston (Te Awamutu), and J. Dent (Kawhia). Who is going to stand down out of that lot? They cannot all hope to get through. . PATEA. , Further troubles here. Dixon, the present member, is being backed by Massey, and G. V. Pearce, ex-Reform, has, it seems, refused to pull out. J. R; Corrigan is the man Liberal-Labor looks to to come through that tangle with his flag and socks up to smile upon the electors when the voting figures tot up. His chances look good; so have those of many a horse that failed. ROSKILL. Here there are a few more. Vivian Potter sticks up for Reform, Miss Melville will do what she can to represent the Women's National Council down at Wellington, Hall Skelton reckons he is independent enough to get through sans any party, and on top of all there's to be a Labor man. MARSDEN. F. Mander has retired and "will not stand forth again, and A. J: Murdpck, runner-up for the Liberals last time, will give it a go again this election, while William Jones, William Morrison, J. Curtis and Colonel Mackesey have also declared themselves variously for Reform and Independent, "but likely enough Morrison, Curtis and Mackesey will pull out, and then Jones, chairman of the county, will run with Murdock over the full campaign coarse. AWARUA. Sir Joe's old seat will stage a straight-out #o between the Reform member, J. A. Hamilton, who laid Ward m the dust — pause while' we weep a bitter tear and express a hopeful hope — and P. de la Perrelle. the proprietor of the "Winton Record." He opens his campaign next Wednesday, and there is ' likely to be some mighty close pegging' down that way. '• MOTUEKA. This is where the apples grow. R. D. Hudson, Reform, will be mixed up m a fairly simple — though that is not to say who will find it so simple — scrap with Liberal-Labor, instead of a Liberal and a Labor selection, Robert Patterson being the man. He is the representative of the Crown lands tenants upon the Nelson Land Board, and has a finger m quite a few other local bodies' doings. Before he settled down to things like that he played, a' game or two of rep. football, and . is a thorough sport. That counts a heap in' politics without a doubt. A. J. Scantlebury had his name up for that seat, but has stood down m Patterson's favor that there might be no split m the Liberal-Labor ranks. Patterson, say those who know him, is a second Bob Masters.

THAMES./ T. W. Rhodes, Reform, will be opposed by W. A. Allen, for LiberalLabor, and, unlike last election happenings, this will be a fair run wtih no one to run foul of either. ' Allen is another dairy farmer who does not see eye to eye with Massey. GREY LYNN. F. H. Bartram will stand up against J. Houldsworth, a prominent Aucklander, chairman of the Power Board among other things, who will take his seat m the Independent corner before hostilities commence for the straightout scrap. There-were five candidates up that way last time, and Bartram polled '3141 against 5577 all told against him. It looks as if, Houldsworth is on a good wicket. He would be good enough for a heavy plunge with (the books if books dealt with such occasions, which, of course, they do not. AUCKLAND EAST. Clutha'Mackenzie is opposed by Lee (Labor), who- just lost by under 200 votes last time when two other candidates paid their acceptance fees. The other two were below Lee, and it looks very much as if, m thjfc- twoman contest this election, Lee is going to be somewhat nearer the top than 200 .votes below it. Whatever. Labor may lose m Gres f Lynn, if Bartram should be licked, it: may pick up again at Auckland -East. It looks that way, both ways. BAY OF ISLANDS. Vernon Reed, the sitting member for Reform, will have to try the distance out with that energetic person, Colonel Allen Bell. He is a pushful 'kind of person with a talk worth listening toThings are going to be merry and speedy up that way. WELLINGTON NORTH, Sir John Luke's own, for tho time being. He is Reform; of course, and will try himself out with Jimmie Young and H. E. Combs, who made all the splashes to Post and Telegraph alliance with the Reds, .and still has fl. word to say upon that subject. Youngwas lately President of the Railway Officers' Institute, and is after the Civil Service vote; so is Combs. Kelburn and Northland have' a big proportion of C.S.s among their peoples, but ai*e they Labor or Liberal? Kelburn has never waved the Labor flag 1 except m very minor patches, Northland has often, enough given the lie direct to what was said- of its Labor leanings, and the chances are that Combs, for all his hard grafting among the P. and T. men, will not catdh all the Civil Service votes he plainly hopes for. HUTT. Tommie Wilford has sa£ down so many years that it seems sinful to suggest putting someone m his place. Politics are a sinful business, so at "least two are going to have a go at it. D. K. Pritchard, Holland's choice, is one, and M. W. Welch ("Mot.) is thinking of being the other^ Apparently Hutt people are hardT;o chose from, for from what "Truth" can gather six different folk had- been seriously thought over before a decision, if it amounts to that, was come to m "Mot's" favor. Even if we wished him all the luck it wouldn't make any difference. There will have to be a lot of unexpected vote-split-ting before Our Tom is called ■up to go to bye-bye. WAIMARINO. Robbie Smith (Liberal) has a couple up against him, Langstone (Labor) and McLean (Reform), and now- there is some stir at Raetihi and Ohakune to discuss another Liberal candidate other than Robbie, arid a meeting was to be held there last night (Friday) .to talk the whole thing over and come to some arrangement. TEMUKA. How the pin jumps! T. G. Burnett had a near go last time, with a'margin of 31 votes only, and this time he will be opposed by T. H. Langford, a popular settler of Winchester, and a returned man s with a just claim on Diggers' votes. A rally was held there this' week with Messrs. Forbes, ancl Veitch, a couple of Liberal hard- ' hitters, to introduce the new man — ■ everyone down that way knew him already, of course, but 'twas a campaign necessity and politically polite and politic. STRATFORD! Fighting Bob will be tackled by J. B. Hine, and the betting may be somewhat one-sided, though there's' no telling. Bob Masters is one of the big young men m Parliament, and the reason is that he is a thorough business man. It's a pity that a lot more had not the same qualifications. RICCARTON. George Witty has . had his mark upon thig district for so long that he looks on it as his, but he's going to be up against something with other ideas than Liberalism m J. A. MeCullough, who held up Labor's end at the Arbitration Court for long enough till there came that bust-up. One. Kyle is likely to be there for Reform. We expect that George will pull through, notwithstanding. LYTTELTON. Jimmie McCombs is m for a straight go with R. MacCartney this time, and on figures has rough going ahead of him, for when last the count was taken he added up 2929 votes m his favor while there were 4254 against him, but then there were three others m the way. WESTLAND. Tom Seddon (Liberal) fights Jesse Steer (Reform) and J. O'Brien (Labor) and is expected to poll as many votos as either of the o' her two. but he will have to get doiv.a to h-\rd tr lining for it. - CLUTHA. A. S. Malcolm (Reform), - who scored' 2257 last' election, with a total of 3500 against him, is booked to fight John Edie (Liberal), whose late electorate (Bruce), has now been wiped out. Clutha takes a big lump of Bruce. Both of them are staunch prohibs., so there will be nothing to chose m that direction. OTAKI. / W. H. Field (Reform), who was up against three men last time," has only one to liek — if he can — this " time, G. H. M. McClure, late Commissioner of Crown LanrJ-s- In. the Otnki electorate is now included .a new ,slice' from Sil'verstream to Upper Hutt,- and that has always said Liberal m a loud voice and may help McClure quite a bit. ... * • .. v-::. FRANKLIN. '" ' Massey's own.. The' same' 1 man, J. Rea, will take on. the big job- again this tiiiie. Now, no constituency likes to lose a real Prime Minister. cßea is up against it, still we wish him luck. LABOR. r The pin is blunt. Let's take; ,l look at Labor's chances. What is' Labor' going 1 to do about it? At; present they hold nine seats, eight of .them m the cities, and Holland will have to go some to gain any further strength, maybe to hold what he has just now. In Auckland Labor . holds :-thr4e out of the four seats, and the' fourth is held by Clutha Mackenzie. If Labor wins out there the balance is likely

to be kept about the same by Grey Lynn, if. Bartram cannot play the tune. Auckland will probably stand the same with three. Labor holds Wellington Central, but cannot win, or is not a bit likely to win, the North, nor the South against "Hoppy" Mitchell (no offence, Colonel). They cannot win Central because they already have it, and there is then only East to gain against Colonel McDonald and Tom Forsyth. At Christchurch they have Lyttelton, East and South Christchurch now, and if they hold Lyttelton, which some consider doubtful, will they come out on top and smile down on Doc. Thacker and Elemisitt? They are not likely to pick up much additional strength m the Holy City. Munro won out for them at Dunedin North m a three-cornered by-election, but this time he will have a straightgjut go with his old opponent, and he may or may not stay where he is, but the greatest optimist, even Massey himself, if he thought tha£«way, would not say that Labor stood a chance with Statham or Downie Stewart or Sidey. If "Labor holds the eight city seats Holland may consider himself not so badly treated as'lie might be. As far as outside seats are . concerned, what can Labor gain? Except for Holland's own we suggest that their only big chances lie m Napier and Riccarton. There may be other darktowns and horses, but they are keeping pretty dark and pretty quiet. We wonder whether the rank and file of Labor are losing faith m "their leaders. While wages were climbing they were jolly good fellows, and

maybe took upon themselves, readily enough a little of the thanks of the Workers for the rising wage, but now that money comes down steadily perhaps the workers swing round a little more to the thought that economic factors and not their leaders have' most -to do witli the weekly wages. There are quite a few more candidates to talk over, perhaps another time.