The New Zealand Times. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 1922. THE GERMAN POSITION

New Zealand Times, Volume XLIX, Issue 11304, 1 September 1922, Page 4

The New Zealand Times. FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 1922. THE GERMAN POSITION

A ray of light shines over the darkness in the suggestion for yet another Conference. The German Government, it is said, has been asked to send representatives to a Conference in Paris, and has almost agreed. The Paris “Temps" is responsible, giving as the basis of the discussion Contemplated, on the German side, a series of monthly payments by Germany totalling two hundred millions, plus an agreement to permit expert control of the German finances;.and, on the other side, a substantial moratorium, plus some loan help. The announcement was made twp days ago, and has not been referred to since. .As, however, the German Government -was eaid to be likely to agree, the matter is interesting enough to be worth considering. And, after all, it Concerns the peace and recovery of the woyld. Without recovery there can he no peace, and, at the moment, there does not seem anything but this latest suggestion to justify any hope of restoration. The actual thing is that Germany is reduced to the printing of innumerable marks, and goes on printing after the mark has ceased to have even a fraction of the quoted value. At that value, it would require two millions sterling to equalise the monthly trade balance, which is down on the German side 10,000 million marks, quoted at .5000 to the pound sterling. A yearly deficiency of twenty-five millions sterling, with good prospect of quick increase, is an element of grave disturbance in a strained world situation involving thousands of millions sterling. If the German side is willing to talk terms once more, and the other side is ready to talk, too, it is not surprising. Both recognise that a settlement is necessary to all the interests concerned. Germany cannot continue a course which makes trade impossible, and the Allies cannot meet their obligations without the restoration of trade. Both sides ought to be glad to see the way put. As a matter of fact, time presses, for others are trying for a way out, too. Greece and Turkey are again at grips: a fire threatening to spread. The Powers that were are making a brew of mischief in Germany, Austria, and Hungary. Russia is watohing keenly, with growing strength. Poland is in. a condition visibly encouraging to the spoliator and the propagator of new doctrines. The quick flight of Time is a spur to the Western men assembling another Conference. There is a theory to the effect that .the leaders of Germany are trying to force concessions from the'Allies, even to the extent of giving up the fruits of victory. The mark rules the world’s trade, through the exchanges; the German leaders rule the mark, reducing its value till trade is impossible, and likewise the repayment of reparations. That means the bankruptcy of Germany first, and the Bankruptcy of most of the civilised nations immediately after. A man negotiating from the centre of the magazine with a lighted match held close to the open top of the nearest power-barrel—that is, according to this theory, the situation. These German leaders think the Allies will he too terrified to stand for their terms. What if the Allies treat the threat as a bluff p Are the leaders of German commerce and industry really prepared to ruin themselves and their countrymen? In melodrama this kind of thing is very effective. In real life it is apt to fizzle out. Already a French voice is heard declaring that the proper alternative to the reasonable-sub-mission proposed—to he discussed at the suggested Conference, to which the German Government is said to be fa- , vourable—is to declare Germany a do-

faulter, and fall back on the provisions of the Treaty of Versailles. That, if the Germans' are bluffing, is putting the bluff in its proper place, which is under the heels of ,-the French army, ready to move over the border under Foch. This prospect is likely to frighten the Germans more than the threat of the man in the powder magazine is likely to frighten the Allies. These leaders, so charged—about the fact there is conflict of opinion—have to reckon with the German people. Without the people they are nothing —in politics, or in war, or in commerce, or in industry. The people are prosperous—at all events, more prosperous than most of the other nations of civilisation. The late Lord Northcliffe described them, after his visit, cnly the other day, as carrying all the signs of prosperity. He saw crowds well dressed, well fed, happy, making money. Building, transport, manufactures were all busy. The children everywhere looked well and were well dressed, expectant mothers abounded everywhere, unemployment was not, prices were everywhere reasonable, and profiteering was conspicuous by its absence. Such was Germany as a competent observer found it. Many others have given the same testimony. That this people of real prosperity will submit to depression, artificially produced for political purposes by methods worthy of Bedlam, is too much to ask us to believe. Germany is more likely to see the reasonableness of tho proposal to pay sums on account of reparation, to place the German public finance under the control of honest experts with no motive hut restoration, and give proper‘security for the carrying out of terms honourably ageed to and dishonourably evaded. This is the only conclusion to which the “bluff” story can lead us. On the other hand, if the German leaders are honest and true, they will agree to the Conference, and discuss all questions reasonably, with the single desire of settlement. Of this the mention of Herr Stinnes, the leader of industrious and financial Germany, among the professed German representatives, is a sign. If this be correct, then the French hint that, if there is no settlement, there must be recourse to the treaty, with declaration of German default, is likely to he effective. The hint shows that tho urgency of the question is, by reason of the growing general unrest, clearly recognised.