BUTTER SURPLUS

New Zealand Times, Volume XLVII, Issue 10956, 19 July 1921, Page 5

BUTTER SURPLUS

ADVICE AS TO DISPOSAL LONDON MERCHANT DISCUSSES SEASON’S PROSPECTS. OPEN CONSIGNMENT SHIPMENTS. Mr Maurice Nathan, managing-direc-tor of Messrs Joseph Nathan and Co., Ltd., London, who is now touring New Zealand, lias just returned to Wellington from a visit to the Manawatu, Hawke’s Bay and Taranaki districts. In a chat with a representative of the “Times” in the city yesterday, Mr Nathan referred to the decision of the Government to permit the export of creamery butter, up to a maximum of 30,000 tons. “This proves,” he said, “that there is a large quantity of butter in store over and above the Dominion’s requirements! There is likely to .be more, between now and the end of August, when the Government subsidy gives out. It is my opinion that the dairy factories will do well to follow the precedent of the United States and Germany, when they have a similar surplus of manufactured articles—they “dump” them on foreign markets, irrespective of the price they secure for them. NEW ERA OF BUYING“The disastrous coal strike in the Old Country has come to an end, and factories will be working double shifts, enabling British workmen to earn sufficient to buy our products, butter and cheese. Added to this, there has been a very severe dry spell in the United Kingdom, leading to a curtailment of the manufacture of these products. Again, Germany, France and Belgium have ajl been short of butter and cheese, and, whilst New Zealand butter, on June 10th, wan sold in England by the Imperial Government at 192 s cwt., although it cost somewhere about 300 s landed London, Danish butter at that time was being bought by those countries at 200 s to 2065, thus proving that they were heavy .buyers. There is no doubt in my mind that a large number of English produce houses would be only too willing to sell stored New Zealand butter for export, and so would I, if I could get it, but I oopsider it my duty to advised not only our clients but alt daily factories to take the risk, and authorise their agents to ship such surplus as they are allowed to on pen consignment. The net result will be better for the factories than selling at: the price they

are offered at present.” Mr Nathan was aaked for an. opinion as to the relative chances of spited or unsalted butter on the Engljsb market. “There is always a bigger demand for salted butter, say, 80 per cent.” he replied. “But whether the market will be the premium that should exist on the. 1 high "prices ruling to-day is a question I cannot answer, because, in pre-war days, the jiremium for unnalted was '2s per cwt, nominally about 2 per cent. Op the same basis, of today’s prices, the premium should be 4s to- ss. For the purpose of getting rid of tlieir surplus, I would advise factories to send salted butter.” PROSPECTS FOR COMING SEASON. “The output of dairy produce for the | coining season la very bright from a normal point of view,” said Mr Nathan; in reply to a further question. ‘ ‘.lf the dairy farmer is going to continue to expect . war prices, 'or their equivalent, for two years after it, he will bo disappointed ; but, if he is a reasonable man, and will he content with a price‘that is still much in advance of pre-war rates, there is no reason why dairying should not continue to be the mainstay of the Dominion’s prosperity. Look at the world’s figures of dairy production. In 1913 Great Britain imported 220,000 tone of butter. In 1921 this had dropped jto 80,000 tons. In 1914 Denmark shipped to the United Kingdom 88,000 tons; last year only 34,000 tons. During this year, Germany, France and Belgium have been buying large quantities, and, strange to say, 1 the United States has been a big buyer. America will buy again, for the reason that dairying has been a hard life there, and "a large volume of farming population has gravitated to the cities, attracted by the big wages paid during the war. Siberia used to ship England 50,000 tons annually, and now is shippin gnone. “Where is England going to get her butter, unless it is from New Zealand, Australia and the Argentine, and, in a lesser degree, Canada and South Africa In _ the whole of the northern hemisphere there has been a drought, and, even if beneficial rains fall now, it will be too late for the coming season, both for butter and cheese,” BUTTER OR CHEESE? On the question that is occupying the attention pf dairy fanners—whether butter or cheese will be ultimately the more profitable—Mr Nathan was guarded in hia opinion. “To anyone accustomed to give a reliable or stable opin.ipn, it is too early to assume the role of prophet. It is too early to anticipate what is to be the price of 'butter, even as early as September next, the opening of the season. The world is still unsettled. We have seen the disastrous results of the coal strike, and there is no telling, in the unstable position of society at the present day. Much more.difficult, therefore, would it he to anticipate events far the balance of the season, the next eight or nine months. There has been industrial ehacs, drought, uncertainty of foreign relations, trade depression. The Bri--1 tish market is influenced so strongly by sentiment, which those closely associated with it know so well, and it is only fair to prepare farmers for possible disappointments. “Where water has once been, it will flow again.” We cannot always have top prices. The market may slump again, and we must not be disappointed.