PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9718, 21 July 1917, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The London correspondent of tho “Now York Times” has sent a- startling letter to his paper, which Iras published it as “Passed by British Censor.” His authority is “a discussion in well-informed circles,” and the revelation of this authority is that if the present rate of loss by submarine sinkings is maintained “there will not bo enough shipping at tho end of a few months to feed England and Franco and maintain the armies.” The object of the publication is to induce the American naval authorities to send all their destroyers to European -waters to join in putting down tho submarine evil. Tho “Now York Times” is usually one of the best-in-formed papers in America, and -the British censorship ought to know" something of facts. Between them they have accepted in support of this conclusion tho allegation that “the loss of Allied shipping by submarines totals 1,600,000 tons a .month.”

Now, for tho month of March, tho German expert. Captain Persius, did not claim more than 880,000. Tho losses for this month of British shipping were returned at 76 ships of over 1600 tons and 34 under, a total of 110 ships. Eor April tho return was 94, and 39, a total of 133; for May it was 113 and 50, a total of 163; for June tho total fell to 85 and 25, a total of 110; and the three July returns are 43 and 12, a total of 55, and if we add a loss corresponding to the last total of 14 and 4, we get a total of 73. Taking all these totals at the Persius average of 8000 tons, we get the following table of losses; Number. Tonnage. March 110 880,000 April 133 1,064,000 May (five weeks) 163 1,304,000 June HO 880,000 July (one week estimated 73 584,000 Now, these tonnages are based on the average of the Persius average of 8000 tons. Thus, the 589 ships lost represent a tonnage of 4,712,000 tons, which for the above five months gives a monthly average of 942,000 tons, very much smaller than the average of the “New York Times.” But an average of 8000 tons for both classes of ships is absurd, and, therefore, the Persius claim is absurd. An average of 1000 tons is nearer the mark, ns tho figures of tho last big Atlantic raid showed. Therefore, 471,000 is nearer tho truth than the American’s 1,600,000. The monthly rate may be more, averaging

5000 tons or somewhat higher. But in the absence of information we can get no nearer. At all events, we have proved the 1,600.000 a month of the American and the censor to be egregioiisly wrong.

The alarmist message- resolves itseff into a. mere repetition of the Admiralty’s appeal to the engineers and steel ■workers to hurry up. It is an appeal to the American Navy to como over and help. It is a correct statement of the fact that the submarine menace is still a very serious thing. Moreover, time is a strong factor hero, for while the Allies are straining every resource of construction, the enemy is doing tho same, adding to our labours as time goes on. Now a winter campaign is very possible, and winter will give tho German builders and inventors much additional time. Therefore tho utmost effort must be made to destroy tho submarine piracy. In fact, this Amencan message, and the Admiralty’s appeal to the workers, show between them that the British Government anticipate at least another year and prob'ahiv more of war. It therefore would like a decision at sea without waiting for tho end of the war.

The chief interest of the war has shifted to Potrograd, switched over by the Anarchist rebellion. Potffogrrti was terrorised, some blood, possibly a good deal, was shed, there was timid talk of getting the Government away to Moscow—tho usual bloating, in fact, of the weak-kneed when things get stormy —but tho Government has taken firm hold. The Government has plainly told tho workers tho differences between anarchy and revolution, and has handed the enforcing of the lesson over to the military governor of Potrograd, who is going about the business with horse, foot and gins. If lhat will not clear the air. the Revolution is doomed. Tho balance of tho reports supports the conclusion that it is clearing the air.

On (he Galician front the Russian General has in his turn taken the offensive, attacking Kalush and Novica. He was repelled at the first; ho mado good at Novica, taking over 2000 prisoners; hut he lost heavilr, and could only hold one cud of the village.

There is a Gorman official claim to have pierced tho Russian lino on a wide front at Zloekow, north-west of Tarnopol, about thirty-five miles north of Brzezany. It means that the enemy is breaking up the Russian combination against Lemberg; that having .stopped the southern and eastern attacks, ho is throwing back their lines north-east of Lemberg, with a view to disorganising and throwing hack the whole advance. But there is no Russian allusion whatever to Zloekow, and tho German bulletin is palpably a political manifesto denouncing the Russians for attacking under cover ot peace assurances, and declaring their just punishment at the hands of the outraged Central Powers. The whole thing is bunkum.

On the West the British front shows no change; the artillery is roaring its usual inarticulate message, and the enemy puts it into words that suit him. ' He wants us to believe that his guns have broken up our reconnoitring parties. This time he has dorm this on the coast and opposite to YpresYesterday he did it at various other places. The guns are ; however, still booming, and we decline to take tho enemy’s interpretation of their meaning. Sir Douglas Haig reports a few successful raids hero and there, and a recovery at Monchy, which shows that a few days ago his people were somewhat hard pressed there. The whole race of British correspondents is still silent along this front. Perhaps they could tell us the meaning of these guns if they wore allowed.

Sir Douglas reports a strong enemy assault at Lombartzyde with the usual artillery preparation and its repulse. Tho assault implies probably the enemy’s strong determination not to relinquish Flanders without a. desperate struggle. There will be protracted fighting for Flanders and Belgium, and the Belgian population is reported to he suffering terribly from hunger.

The enemy has delivered a strong attack on tho French position at St. Quentin. The French occupy a .height south of the town from which they aro able at any time to launch an attack on the heights held by tho enemy east of tho town. It is a menace all the stronger- as the British hold the high ground west and north-west which commands tho town a.nd river basin. The enemy therefore organised an assault on the French position; after heavy artillery preparation launched his attack. got possession of tho first line of trenches, was countered out of most of them, and is now master of a portion of the ground. He makes much of his advantage, as is usual with him, and let us add, quite natural. But tho warfare on the French front has become stereotyped, which means that this sort of success on tho advanced elements is common enough on the enemy’s side and commonly ends in his ultimately giving up possession.

He has tried another bout of infantry on the Aisne line and rued the day once more. Ho has tried to recover his ground lost beyond Maronfillers in the Champagne and at Malancourt on the sector west of the Alonso, and claims success which the French reports absolutely deny. The only thing he appears to have attained is a loss of many men.

Of the, German crisis there is very little nows. What there is comes through Amsterdam in tho shape of a general impression (in Germany) that the Ezherger party is going to pieces. Tf this is true the crisis is ending with tho War Party triumphant. Michaelis, who now appears fully as the nominee of the War Party and Crown Pnnce (not the Kaiser), is reported to have ■'finished the disruption of the Erzbergers. ■ H© has declared for the submarine campaign—naturally after the Admiralty appeal and the “New York Times” sensational statement—and his speech to the Reichstag is looked forward to with excitement by ail Germany-