PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9691, 20 June 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The West front shows general activity all along, chiefly of artillery work, and there are details of raids and reconnaissances. Tho gun-fire is lively at intervals from- the North Yprea through -the British lino, and on tho French sector. Tho northern part may be indicative of a further development in Flanders; tho southern part is chiefly remarkable for the continued bombardment of Reims, which shows that the, enemy still has the initiative, though ho can make but small use of it.

The German; official list of casualties acknowledges 110,000 for May, but says nothing about Juno, and June will be a big month when the figures are published. The June fighting is, of course, a reply to tho Kaiser’s statement that the spring offensive of the Allies tvas a failure. The “failures” at Vdmy, Arras, Frosnoy, Gavrellc, Guonappes, Monchy, Fampoux, and Bulleoourt were followed by tho ‘ 'failure ’ as tho Kaiser will call it later on—iat Alessines. . No doubt Marshal Haig, the War Council, and the Entente commands would like a good many more of these failures, which have given the British Army such a magnificent prestige.

The German official total of the casualties for the war, including May, looks 1arge—4,366,750, of which tho dead are 1,068,127—but we must remember that a good many of tho wounded have returned to the firingline. On the other hand, tho correctness of the German official returns has been denied by th© best experts frdni the first, who have ‘supported their judgments by showing important omissions. Tho important question is how many men has the enemy in tho field. M. Belloc,- on March Ist last, computed the enemy’s forces (Central Powers) in the field at 61 millions, ot which the German Empire’s proportion was 3i millions, while both Powers had “in sight” two millions over and above those deployed in the fighting lines. Of this number, one million he assigned as the German share of the recruitment. To this million Germany hoped to add from two sources, These were the Polish levies, (including Lithuanians) and the combing out of indispensablos. The first has practically, failed to give any appreciable number of men. The second Has been generally regarded as capable of P ro * ducing largo forces. But the ‘perxection of the German machine, in MBelloc’s opinion, does not encourage the belief that much can be got by tho process of combing but, bepause the essential services were in a perfect machine not overloaded with men; they would be running with the possible minimum. There was fear everywhere that tho use of prisoners and slaves raided from the occupied countries might release many men. But the nature of the essential services necessarily, reduces the openings for these strangers. J .

Mr Belloc considers that the million of recruitment* ■ cannot he appreciably increased. Of these, one half, ho’says, were in uniform by December with half of that number ready to send forward monthly drafts up to. July. That half million is pretty well used up by this time-rso tfnat half a million r remain under training and only available after July in comparatively small monthly instalments. If these figures are correct (they are careful deductions from information necessarily somewhat imperfect) the end of tho year will see tho end of tho German power of recruitment which was in sight at tho end of last year. Now the 1918 class has been anticipated, and therefore tho onemy next year will depend chiefly on his convalescents. Tho outlook may not be exact, but it is cheering. It certainly does not justify any expectation of a great Hindenhurg offensive anywhere. There are no men available. .

If Russia fails, tho men from the East front will, of course, reinforce the West. Will Russia fail? To-day’s news maintains the increasing hopefulness of tho last few days- The reaction in the streets against the Leninites, the progress of Kerensky, the second ballot of the Soldiers’ Committee in favour of war, the raising of “death . bat*: talions,” the “iron discipline” applied to the armies by Kerensky, the progress of tho work , of Mr Henderson, all make for hope. On the other hand, “The Times’-’ Petrograd correspondent gives a very dreadful- account of tho general condition of Russia, with a depleted exchequer, no taxes paid, and the pnnfuajpp of many small republics.

Who ihall decide in this conflictln any case we must look for delay. But at any rate the enormous issues at slake arc now understood fairly widely. There is a "rent body of goodwill in favour of the national duty, and the possibility is evident of a- clash of arms in which the forces of disorder tvill be destroyed. IVe can only wait with patience for further developments, relying on the strong men, well advised, and with the Western purse at their back to get fighting order out of chaos. But tvp may. at the same time, congratulate ohrselvcs that the state of the Gorman man-power docs not permit the enemy to take advantage of tlho, Russian situation.

The enemy, whatever the confusion in Russia, has certainly failed decisively to get tlie separate peace which would have greatly increased his armies on the West front, and Messines has shown that, he is weakening there. We must not dismiss the idea .that grew out of Moss lues of the enemy’s immediate withdrawal. For in the •splendid condition of the British Army wo have a great ground of hope that the withdrawal of the enemy from Flanders will be forced before long. When it is the striking power of the British forces will bo substantially increased.

French, experts illuminate the situation. They toll us that tho German army thrown off the Messines ridge is in trouble with the Vprcs canal in its rear and the Gys on its southern flank, that already the British cannon is bombarding all the bridges, and that to got away safely the enemy intends .to attack at Hollehcckc and Klein Zillebccke at tho north end of the German line, to enable it to pivot on that cud and swing back of bis line over the canal- They add that the British General knows their plans and is ready to frustrate them. There will be a wild time presently.

Tho state of the; industrial army ot Britain is illuminated by the King’s address on visiting the workers on the Tyne. Tho address enables us to see that the industrial army is compact, energetic, and united enough to keep up tho tremendous supply of munitions required for tho defeat of the enemyThe efficiency of the industrials will be further increased by the declaration of Lord Rhondda, the new Food Controller. that he will bring down the cost of living. Ha (has signalised his assumption of office by a declaration of war against exploitation as treason to the nation; ha is the man to use powea 'relentlessly .for his purpose; and he has been vested with all the power necessary, even to the commandeering of every pound of the provision supply of Britain. Wo note that the sale of New Zealand commercial moat has now attracted critical attention.

Tho American preparations keep on getting punctuated by big things. Yesterday the Americans had got their big man supply into shape for working,, and determination as well us their capacity to make such use is fully proved. To-day we learn of their prodigious plan for increasing and speed-ing-up tho air service with thousands and thousands of machines. It will immensely help tho anti-submarine campaign, the defence of England ;agamst air raids, the campaign work on the-West-front, and the invasion of Germany, to which the success of that 'campaign work must lead. The hustling, and the systematic power of America arc very great, hut wc cannot doubt that the presence of Lord Northcliffe.in America is having a stimulating and systematising effect.

The ex-King Constantine has been got away from Greece, going in his •own yacht, not in any British battleship ns rumoured, and gossips and Governments are busy with his destination. I Tho latest habitation assigned him is Baden-Baden. But this must bo a joke, for Tino has too much regard for his comfort to go to a starving country. Baden-Baden was a favourite resort of his father’s, and was probably mentioned as his destination by some waggish person by way of jeering, . and was taken seriously by one of those correspondents who do their work without tho humour required to keep their heads above the muddy waters of rumour. Tho new King Alexander has proclaimed his intention of following in tho blood-stained footprints loft. by his deposed father on tho soil of Greece and the Balkans. Thereupon has arisen talk of a Venizelist Republic. Meanwhile, the Allied troops aro moving through Thessaly on a course punctuated by Venezelist risings. No one can say, therefore, that Alexander is destined to emulate the glory of his great namesake, who conquered the Eastern world in ten years and died of a. drinking (bout at thirty-three.