PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9622, 30 March 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Wild rumours in Berlin of a separate peace offered to Russia on terms distinctly advantageous to Russia have run thoir appointed course, apparently, and subsided into an expectation that the tJenn;m Chancellor would offer such peace in his speech on Thursday, which was eagerly expected in consequence. The position is more clearly defined by the fact, reported iron) Amsterdam, that the supreme command has stopped a discussion in tho Prussian Upper House of a motion urging an honourable peace with Russia by the use of every means available. The motion is evidently tho consequence of the Prussian War Minister's recent admission of the insufficiency of the German artillery. With the above rumours the motion helps to establish tho fact that the Teutonic mind is very anxious for peace. Moreover, the Russian situation lends itself so strongly to an offer of peace that it would be tolly for Germany to neglect tho opportunity. • • *

The opportunity is not goingto remain for ever ready, for the German grasp. The Russian .situation is clearing more every day. The constitutional authority granted to Finland gives the key to the new Russian policy for • uniting all the Russian peoples living under the Russian Uag, and accounts for the terms of the peace mentioned in the Berlin rumour. The Russian army, at the same time, is reported to have got past all possibilities of disorder involved in the suddenness of the extraordinary revolution. And the Provisional Government is reported to be making great headway with the organisation of the army for war, of which it has discovered the extraordinary backwardness. Already the results of the reforms introduced are described- as startling. Hie trials of the ex-Ministers, moreover, which are. at hand, • and the arrest of General Ivanoff accentuate the strong determination of the Government and the Council of Workmen and Soldiers to cleanse the Augean stable.

The German propaganda for a coun-ter-revolution to restore the. Romanoffs and the bureaucratics bad but one object—a. separate peace. This has failed completely, if we lead the signs of the situation aright. But the necessity for a separate peace still remains vital for Germany. The propaganda having failed, the Gorman Command has resorted to menace. Consequently attacks on the Russian Eastern line are reported to-day at various points from flluk, in the near neighbourhood of Riga, to the wood-' ed Carpathians, with the customary flavour of stormed positions, loosings of gas, repulses of counters, and continual progress, of which the German authorities know the use so well- Their apparent pressure all along the East front was preceded the other day by that solemn story of Hindenbnrg’s vast concentration, of troops' for an irresistible campaign against Retrograd. To that the report of the day gives an*air of vorsimilitudo. It is ns if the whole line is attacked in order to conceal effectively the point at which the great German general will deliver his terrible mortal stroke. That officer, by the way. is on the Western front, personally directing the most horrible frightfulness.

These are the means now adopted for introducing the subject of pence. The propaganda for a treasonable counterrevolution having failed, the bluff of a great onslaught on the supposedly unprepared line in the time of bad organisation has taken its place. It is a mixed diplomatic onslaught in which the armies deliver a bombardment to prepare the way for the march of the diplomatists bearing olive branches. It enables ns to realise the desperation of the German situation. And every hour improves the power of the Russian nation for systematic modern war,

and increases the strength of the Russian armies for delivering the great blows of a sustained, vigorous campaign on an enormous scale.

There is a report froip_ Berlin that the cx-Czar lias escaped to Sweden. Why not from Sweden ? That the ex-tzar should he. anxious to getaway is only natural—another way of saying that it is only natural for him to fear that tho extremists may at airy moment get the upper hand and enforce their demand for his head. But diat does not prove cither that ho has escaped or that the Russian position is insecure. It would certainly he a misfortune if ho escaped, because he would become a rallying point ioi a.l the had elements which dragged him down. Swollen, however, would not now be as good a place for him as U was some little, time ago, for tho now autonomy of Finland blunts the edge of Swedish distrust of the new Russia. But needs must, perhaps, lor it ia cusv to imagiiie that tho recent discovery of the wireless installation in tho Czar’s Palace has given his enemies considerable advantage for tixui purpose of taking oil his kcad.

As the Huns threatened, so arc they making good. The threats took the place of delirious shouts of triumph which the Alarm’, the Aisnc, A pres, the blockade by the British Navy, the conquest of Galicia, and the Russian recovery after the ' Donajec campaign announced by Brusiloff with a capture of 400,000 prisoners and much booty, and considerable, gain of ground, peremptorily stopped. Germany then became alive w'ith threats of the awful tnghtfillness she would put into the wav in case of a reverse. These threats plainly told the Entente Powers that if the German armies were over driven back, they would astonish the world with’their manner of making war—the world, which knows the histones of Belgium, af Northern France, of Alsace. and the destruction of the Armenian people. The German armies aro being driven buck on tho West front, and the reports of tho horrible things they aro doing, under the orders of their general-in-chief, show how well they arc making good. Of this war tt will bo said that Germany never fulfilled any prediction of victory, and never failed in any threat of hideous abomination. The piracy keeps pace in this fulfilment, and tho allies of Germany arc nob behindhand.

Witness die sinking of the Asturias hospital ship, with the incidental murders in outrage of the. Red Cross, respected of all nations but Germany. That the outrage did not murder a thousand wounded men in all stages of pain, and helplessness was due to the ignorance not the forbearance of these murderers. The atrocity of the outrage is deepened by the excuse put forward in advance, that Britain was going to do the same thing- It was ii deliberate lie, the flagranec of which shows that even Germany shrinks from crime without tho disguise of hypocrisy. To make reprisals in advance by imputing motives lyingly is, the method of German frightfulness, and the measure of German aggression.. In the case of the Belgian “scrap of paper” the method was an. afterthought which took advantage of documents by forgery and ’manipulation, and held” them up to the world in the Reichstag by the Judas hand of the Chancellor, Since then these pirates apply tho method by prediction based on lies about documents which do not exist.

Then we have to-day the report of the horrible treatment in Hungary of the people accused of welcoming their kindred of Ronmania in the recent invasion. Wo have a reminder of a long lino of systematic atrocitics_ in Macedonia by Sarrail's summary treatment of the Greek and Bulgarian comitadjis who fall into his hands, receiving punishment for the hideous crimes by .'Which they emulate the, conduct of their friends the devastating German and the. Unspeakable Turk. Synchronising with the Asturias outrage, we have to-day the doleful, pessimistic Beresford comment on the submarine piracy. It professes to quote figures of the losses, to throw doubts on the scarcity in Germany, and to discredit the Foreign Office with a. charge of causing the failure of our naval blockade. • The figures are' not like any that have been published, being gross exaggerations; the doubts of the scarcity in Germany were refuted yesterday in advance by Lord Robert Cecil, the Blockade Minister, and the refutation is confirmed to-day by Batochi, the German Food Minister, with the result that whatever may have been the hampering of the Fleet in the early days of the war, the Fleet’s blockade is remarkably efficient now. If there is any further doubt on the subject it is dispelled by the rage throughout Germany, where Government, press and people execrate Britain for stopping the supplies which they pretend to believe are guaranteed to every belligerent by the law of , nations. Lord Beresford stands convicted as a man of one idea and much bias. The basis of his idea disappeared long ago, but bis bias will go on for ever. We aro far from saying that Beresford Jias not served his country well. On the contrary his services both in peace and war have been very great, the services of a man of great courage, great resource, and great professional skill. But his prejudices are so headstrong that all men we believe agree that it is well for the nation that ho does not hold a great naval command in the war.

The German command trios to persuade the Teutonic mind of tho geuui&ncss of its claim, that Hindenburg is luring the Allied armies to destruction. It says it has counted 1000 British dcad in front of its new positions, and declares this to be proof of its predictions of Hindenburg’s .successful retreat. Now the only battle in which the British could have suffered serious loss was the battle of Beaumctz, at the extreme northern end of the new German line. This battle, whatever the British loss may have been —and no one will accept the German word for it—ended in an important British victory, and lias been followed by a subsequent advance with capture of positions with small loss. Moreover, one detail of tbe battle, the German calling for volunteers to assail the Beanmetz position recaptured by the British, as reported' by Air ... Gibbs, marks the scale of the battle as small. A large scale of battle requires divisions as units, and a scale less but still large involves brigades. But divisions and brigades cannot be asked to volunteer. Large scale attacks require large organisation, which is impossible with an assault by volunteers. These can onlv form the attacking head of a comparatively small organisation.

But if we assume that the victory of Benomctz cost om people 1000 ju

doii',l. tin' number docs not by tiny means indicate that the enemy brought on this battle for the mere purpose of destroying troops he had lureu on to break their heads against a strong position. The outstanding fact is that he lost the position which lit? wanted, because it commanded other positions, and having lost it. lost some of the other positions of ivliich the safety was involved. The British general's report to-day of a further advance to the westward ami southward of Croisillcs settles that point completely, and therefore refutes the story of the success of Hiudcnburg’s lure.

Further to the south the British have, captured some positions ‘‘alter a short light.” and still further south, in tho neighbourhood of Uoisel, their cavalry have taken the two villages ol Villers —Faucon and Sauleourt—both' well in advance of the lino as it was marked yesterday. These successes, gained evidently without serious loss, do not at all bear out the lurc-to-de-Vtruction theory. They imply a steady advance along nearly the whole British front of tho new line. The use of the cavalry suggests that at certain points the enemy is resuming his retreat.

The French are working tncir way among tho forests and ravines of the “massif” of St. ■ Gohain, and making some progress slowly on the great ridge of the Aisne. The Ailette Talley »es between these two positions, and the Oise (Valley . flanks the Massif to tho West. It is by the valleys of the AiIctte and the* Oise that the French have attacked tho “Massif.” They could not possibly have done so by tho valley of tho Aisne, for the Aisne is nowhere near the “Massif,” which is really part of a larger "Massif” bisected by the Ailette. The description cabled the other day of this position, therefore, erred- —wo think—by substituting “Aisne” for “Oise.” As it stood, the description it gave, of tho possibilities of attack was a d CP -P mystery. Substitute “Oise” for “Aisne," and the whole becomes clear, revealing the advance of the French lino. The lino is moving on both sides of the Ailette, working over the Northern Massif of St. Gohain towards Laon, and over the Southern Massif of tho Aisne, without being able to move past the point in the Ailette Valley which is commanded from tho northeastern portion of tho Southern Alassif. "Whichever of these Massifs goes first, the other must follow. Both present groat difficulties, and the French progress is consequently slow. For tho moment, it is impossible to say that it is sure, though apparently it is, and more so in the Northern than the Southern .Massif.

Tho Germans claim to have chocked the French advance between tho Oise and tho Somme, north-west of La Fere. But there is no evidence that they moved up the Oise valley at all. They wore at Essigny and Bernay yesterday, further north, and thetc seemed no need to move along the Oise, for a French advance north'of Essigny would involve the abandonment of tho positions on the Oise. The Germans art) fond of reporting the repulse of attacks whicji aro not made, and this appears to belong to that part of thoir system of reporting.

The American news reveals the shadow of war almost on the American border. One paper announces that President and Cabinet are agreed that America must fight, and that the President will say so to Congress. Tho Navy League is recruiting- 100,000 men for the American Navy, and the American merchant ships are going through the forbidden zone, ready to fire on any submarine pirate who may give them a chance. The President is not writing Notes to Germany but to Congress, and there arc overt acts in plenty now. At any moment now America may he in the thick ot it. Her navy will certainly be a most valuable auxiliary.