PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLII, Issue 9596, 28 February 1917, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The enemv has cleared' oiit of the salient completely, but it is not yet clear whether he intends to stand on the straight line. The strong probability is that he docs, it we may judge by the way in which he has swung back his line in front of the left of the British nosition. His line has given hack but little at Goramecourt; from Serre it has gone back two miles to the outskirts of Puisienx; from Touhs vents and Beaumont-Hamel it has gone back three miles; from Thiepval to Miraumont it has gone back between three and four; from Pozieres to the Irles sector, north of the So.rs, nearly four; while from that point it has held from Eaucourt to Gueudecourt, with an advance between them of about a mile to Warlencourt. Practically the enemy bolds a straight line from the front of GommecoUrt to Gueudecourt, and a point near Transloy, in front of Prisieux and Irles, through Miraumont, Eaucourt, to Gueudecourt, with a bulge at Warlencourt. Roughly 3 while holding his centre and left he has swung his right into straight co-ordination, out of the salient as above described.

These are the positions of the British line a s described by Sir Douglas Haig- The change has been gradually effected by steady pressure with the exception of the last part from Gommecourt to the north of Le Sars, whiob the enemy has reached with a rush of retreat in the last week without fighting- This has shortened his front west of a line passing through Bapaumc, but on the other side his line is longer, as the result of summer and autumn work. He has, as pointed out yesterday, reduced the extra length of the line forced upon him by the Big Push to an excess of four miles (about' over the length he held when the Big Push opened. The British General is maintaining his pressure.

Evidently .the attack is to he pushed on hard. The enemy has tried a diversion wrh an attack south of the Somme, which Sir Douglas reports as repulsed. From Transloy the line deflects sharply south—almost, at right angles to the straightened line, Gomme-court-Transloy—by Sailly, St. Vaast, In front of St. Quentin, over the Somme, close to Pcronne, and on to Chaulnes, by Massonette, Berny, and Abhincourt. These positions om people have taken over from the French, we presume, and it is on their line the German attack was attempted. Its object, if serious, was to break through the southern side

of the British wedge, established in the enemy’s country. It was in the nature of a flank stroke, to ease the pressure on the other sido of the wedge. At all events that is whai it looks like.

As the attack met with no successassuming it to have been made with tho above object—the enemy will have to face the pressure of “he other line, moving on Bapaumoj without relief If he cannot resist it, the pressure will turn him out of Bapaume, and, as one consequence, force him to retreat over the Somme and out of Poronne to a straighter line on tha’ side. Having knocked the enemy nacli with an ugly left, the British General will throw him back on the right, with the threat of anothei i unch. The effect of tho wide conquered front is beginning to be manifest. Tho enemy has been swung back in one great curve on one side of his sector centre, and is likely to be swung back in another great curve on xhe other. It is easy to understand how in this way his line on that sectni can be quickly broken. If two swings will not do it, a system of swings infallibly will. It is a question ui time, and of lessening time. The first thing was to get the enemy on the idovGj and it took much time and hard fighting. The next was to give him the firs' swing back, and the first part of that operation was long, but ihe second brought about tho swift collapse of the enemy. The continuance of that swing is in progress, threatening to force another swing buck on his right. He has tried his first counter-move to obviate the second swing which awaits him, and that has failed. Whether he will try again, it is not possible to say- But he will not ho waited for. The impetus of the first swing against his right is kept on him, and if lie gives way troub e will find him, compelling him to stop the aider yawning of the gap by swinging back bis left. Now, it is practically certain that he cannot stop the swing on the left, the pressure of men and guns being too much. Nor is it easy ror him to force relief elsewhere.. We can, therefore, watch the development of the battle with grim satisfaction. ■Sir Douglas Haig, wo remember, said he would, break his line. It. begins to look as if the break is at hand.

The capture of Kut-el-Amara —a very brilliant operation it .seems to have been —balances the with Turkey to some extent- Politically, die effect will be great throughout the East. The surrender Was a great blow • tn British prestige, and the recovery will be as great a rehabilitation., lit will be greater, because tha Turkish resistance was not nearly so long as the other or so stubborn. _ Nothing but starvation beat the British, but the enemy was fairly stormed out of his vital positions, with, considerable rapidity and steady sequence. Ho could riot stop the. passage of the fiver tn his side; he could not. hold the ridge which he required for his safety;. he saw the attack closing in on his flank's: he retreated circumspectly before be was cut off, abandoning his conquestIt is a very pretty operation of war. with a, victory whioh will carry British prestige beyond its former level. As to the sequel, it is soon tb talk of it, and, as a matter of fact, there is more exciting matter to talk of. But it is now an open secret that a special effort was organised for the Mesopotamian campaign, and substantial forces were assembled for - it, while the whole system of commisariat, transport, and medical seivioS was thoroughly re*, 'organised. The recapture of Hut is probably more than a political demoristration, and may add considerably to the interest of the last phase of the great war. The continuation of the clearing-out operations bn . the Pales-tine-Sinai border shows that persistence against the Turk is the order of the day.

It is of no immediate practical use in this connection to mention that there has been lighting at Lake Van. The report is brief and evidently refers to an affair of patrols—“muscouts dispersed tne Turks on the western . bank of Lake Van with heavy losses.” But the spring is at hand, and movement of troops _in those regions, in which so much is at stake, becomes interesting. The resumption of the Russian campaign in Armenia is one of the probabilities. Before the winter the Russians had consolidated their line across the -Armenian plateau; they had got over , the greatest part of the mountain difficulties in their way; they were securely, based ott.. Trebizoad at one end, and. they had driven the Turks out of the Van country at the other. They wer6 reported as ready at any time to move on Moosh and Kharput, with the possibility of advance against Mosul and the Bagdad railway. _ That was probably irresponsible rumour merely, for the great prize, of war in Armenia is Constantinople, for who holds Armenia controls the main supplies of the Turkish capital. But the appearance of the Russians in force in Armenia would certainly weaken the Turkish defence of Mesopotamia by drawing every available Turkish division to the north. Henoe it is permissible to dream of a seciuel to Kut-el-Amara and Palestine, of Damascus ahd the Euphrates plain, on which the great railway debouches froni Cilicia and the Amann| range.

The Russians report trench raids west of tiie Jablomtza Pass by ‘a “reconnoitring force.” It reminds us that they are in touch with the RussoRouman'ian line across Moldavia, which has been silent for some days, though the last accounts stopped in the midst of fighting. Further north we learn to-day from German sources that the Russians are busy, having renewed the advance on the Riga sector, and having attacked at Brezerany in Galicia, on the road to Lemberg. Thu Germans report these as repulses, but the practical moaning is that the activities of war are being maintained. The German report notices the Russian Carpathian reconnaissance; Eixtensive operations in any of those regions depend entirely on weather conditions, and no note being made of them, we cannot dorm definite ideas about these reported operations. But in view, of the activities on the West front, and the pressure of the submarine piracy, any sign of activity oh the Russian side is welcome.

The piracy has added a big Cunarder, the Laconia, with 18,(XJU tons, to its bag, and the addition of another Britisher brings the strafed tonnage of the pay well over 20,000 tons. The news takes the piracy towards the deeper snadea of ttie outlook., reminding ua that the struggle is still severe. The Germans have taken the opportunity to work oft a neat bluff. Merchants in Denmark, we read, were amazed at recemng German advice of a great arrangement of tonnage for America, with a request for orders, and on asking for explanation were

informed that the submarine blockade Oeing on the verge of victory Germany is preparing to sweep the commercial world at once. The attempt to reassure neutrals is cute.

The German raid on Margate and Broadstairs and the battle of small war craft off some other part of the coast not named show that naval matters aie getting very active. How active we may guess from the very substantial navai programme announced in England, which includes the immediate establishment of an auxiliary volunteer fleet of many hundred vessels, and the organising of great numbers of craft for the protection, it, Is explained, of British ports. Evidently there is serious woik before us. Hie Germans are arranging to support tiho undersea piracy, and the British are making counter-plans, and both sides are about ready for action. More than that we cannot say, but there is much food for thought, and enough to increase the anxious interest over some great struggle on the water. The appointment of a successor —Admiral r’akenham—to Beatty as commando: of the battle-cruiser squadron—gives the finishing touch to this interest. There is going to bo fierce work at sea presently. « * *

The American President has taken the step he threatened. He has asked Congress tor power to use the national forces. American opinion is that he will take the power in any case, and a motion is before one of the Houses to grant him the same, which, will probably be carried. American cruisers have trustrated a German attempt to establish- an undersea base off the coast of Cuba, and American liners are to be armed at once (for the motion in Congress to that effect is sure to be carried). The President has commented severely on several “overt acts” of the undersea piracy. It is proved that there were Americans on the Laconia, torpedoed without warning, and two are reported to have perished, although another report declares that all, both crow and passengers, were saved, but the endangerraent is an overt act. It is rumoured that the Cuban rebellion is being financed with German money, and the Mexicans are said to be indebted to the same for munition work. Altogether, the prospect of American intervention is growing towards certainty. There is a feeling that the President will not go beyond armed neutrality, and he has given in bis speech to Congress some reason for that. But armed neutrality is nothing but war, and when it is war , the logic of events brings co-operation with other belligerents. If the American -forces are used, they must of necessity be used with the Entente forces. The entry into the war of aimed America must open the door to all tho possibilities of war. A lone hand for America would, be both useless and impossible.