PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XLI, Issue 9247, 14 January 1916, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

According to an unofficial message from Petrograd, the Russian offensive is stopped, because it has effected its object of withdrawing enemy troops from the Franco-Belgian front and the Balkans. The message adds that the enemy, having reinforced his line in front of Galijia and Bukowina, the Russian command is satisfied not to press the advance any further. This plainly means that the Russians are not able to go on thrashing the enemy, who has brought up troops enough to dtienl himself, but that he cannot venture to take those troops back to the front* he has weakened. One wonders, however, why the Russians, if they have so far succeeded in their strategy, should have said anything about jt. The intention to weaken the enemy's other fronts implies' either that, the Allies intend a blow somewhere on these other frontsor that they are, content to disturb the balance of the enemy's troops in such a, way that he must relinquish his own offensive plans. It may be a method of saying that the enemy's plans, have been frustrated.

We are reminded by the statement of Colonel Repington's recent i° rccas * of the enemy's offensive plans.. He said plainly that, finding himself getting weaker gradually, the enemy felt that he must force a decision quickly, a_ntl he indicated the directions in which he would make the attempt. We fo:ind it difficult to believe, because the enemy seemed unable to make any great offensive anywhere. Since then he did, according to the Paris official reports, make a strong av tempt on the French lino in Champagne, which was summarily forbidden by the formidable French defence. Now it "seems a fact that the enemy was also making preparations for a vigorous- attack on Salonika, which has not yet been delivered, and does not, so far as tie day's news Eoes, seem likely to be delivered. Now. at the time of these proceedings, the Russian advance on a 200 mile front was very pronounced; it nearly broke the Austro-Gerinan line, it inflicted huge Josses, it made important captures, and the enemy rushed "important forces to that front.

The Unofficial Petrograd statement we publish to-day certainly covers all these proceedings. It is quite possible that the lack of strength to sustain the German attack —a very important attack it seems certainly to have been —in Champagne was due to the sudden withdrawal of troops to the East, where the Austro-German line had been weakened by withdrawals for work elsewhere, under the impression that the Russians had not recovered sufficiently to be dangerous. The Russian advance proved the fallacy of that conclusion; and the German troops had to be hastily replaced. The same may be said of the project to attack Salonika, except that the /preparations on- that section fc,ad not got so . far as those in Champagne, when the Russian advance on Gal icia sounded the alarm which sent the, Austro-German troops hurriedly to the danger point.

It is possible, we repeat, that the Petrograd message carried this meaning, intending to inform the worla that the enemy has been compelled to abandon his schemes for forcing a rapid decision, and wait with.what'patience he may, for the decision the Allies intend to seek in their own time. The plan in case this be'correct is to use the Russian strength, which has now revived, as a menace to paralyse all the German efforts. The explanation seems, somewhat far-fetched. Also does it seem incredible that any inkling of a strategic plan would bo revealed in this manner. We can only conclude that whatever this unofficial statement may mean, 'there is a strategic plan which will be developed presently. ■ It may bo concluded in some quarters that the statement is simply intended to cover - the fact that the . Russians. have discovered that their strength has not the sustaining power they thought when they began the advance, which looked so formidable even in German eyes. But that makes it even more difficult to believe that any statement at all would have been made. However, there the message is, and. the fact that nothing passes the Russian censors without their consent is, of course, notorious. Its real meaning must be left to subsequent events to translate.

The High Commissioner sends a report of German attacks in the- Courland sector, far to the north, not far from Riga, and of Russian counters at Voniavesz, about half way down to Kovno. There docs not seem to be anything serious enough in this to have stopped the southern advance of Brusiloff with the Czar in personal attendance. .« • • The Anstrinrl.official report suggests another reason, namely, that the .Russian offence has been badly beaten on the Bessarabian frontier—that six of its attacks have been repulsed withheavy loss and that it is in disorderly retreat. If this is true the meaning of the unofficial message ceases to bo doubtful. It is that the Simian advance has been decisively stopped and that the Russians are sheltering under cover of a great strategic plan. It is either a great "strategic" plan; or it is "strategic" explanation. But we have yet to hear the Petrograd official version of the matter. • • • The news from Montenegro is bad, and the' news' of the Serbians in Albania is disquieting. The loss of Mount Lovchen has compelled the evacuation of the capital, and the Austrian troops are pressing in on all the frontiers. Here, at all events, is one front from which the Russian advance had ndt withdrawn the* enemy's troops. The loss of the mountain is set down to the want of ammunition. .We were .led to think the arrival of the Italians in Albania had settled the question of ammunition. We were led to think, also, that it had enabled the Serbian remnants to bo reorganise! and recquipped, and, in fact, made ready for otrvice again. But this failure of ammunition in. Montenegro shows that the "Italian arrival has done no whatever to Montenegro, AJ tne same time, the transfer, of Serbian troops.to Corfu to avoid starvation shows that-the' Italian arrival has been of small effect in Albania. Instead of a- Serbo-Itellan advance from Albania towards Serbia, -we hare

a cerbian retreat to Corfu —to be fed. There is a request that the presence of Serbian and French troops in the island, which is Greek territory, iray not be regarded as occupation, but that only emphasises the helplessness of the Serbian condition.

, Here is a most unexpected explanation of the occupation of Corfu (and other islands and Epirus). reported the other day. Instead of a step in the return march to Serbia, it is a step, practically, into the sea. The western portion of the Balkan campaign looks hopeless for the moment. The other day the movement of large Bulgarian forces into Albania was reported, and a conflict between them <md the Italians and Serbians (renovated) seemed likely. Instead of that conflict, we have the deportation of Serbian troops in search of food. Where is the Italian army of 80,000 men. which was reported weeks ago as having; landed, and afterwards imported to have mended roads and got into campaigning order? And what are the fourteen ships of unknown nationality cruising round the deported Serbians at Corfu? Of course if they are hostile they will soon get into trouble.

The Western side of the Balkan campaign is suddenly grown dark. The Montenegrins are being overwhelmed for lack of help, and of the Serbians and Italians who were expected to help them, the former have left the country to be red, and the latter are invisible. It is well we have that splendidly-forti-ued base at Salonika under General Sariail. Havo we anything else? tiovvever, with such an asset we can afford to wait for the explanation which certainly is needed. Taihoa! ■''

A statement is made by the "Echo de Pans" that aU the Serbian children have been carted off to work in the fields and factories of Austria and Germany. Such a thing is contrary to the rules of civilised war; it is slavery, and a cruelty revolting and callous, Ttte thing is, however, quite on a par with German frightfulness, and therefore the story is by no means improbable. It is true that the Kaiser made a solemn speech the other day to "My Serbia," calling on all and sundry to come back to their homes —or the sites of them—and settle down under the shelter of sKultur. "We suppose he will explain this enslaving of children as intended to save "My Serbian people" the trouble of maintaining their families 1

By the way, there is some confirmation of the story that the Kaiser is ill. The statement is made that before ms illness the Kaiser had been very angry with von Tirpitz and others for misleading him about the intentions of iiussia and Britain at the outset of tbe war. The statement does not come from Germany direct, but it shows that the belief in the Kaiser's illness is spreading.

1 From the ' Western section we hare the comftorting statement—via Mew York—that no less than twelve Zeppelin raids on London were frustrated uuri'ng December by the "effective defences.". The strange, thing is, that this is the first we have- heard of a matter so important. It is, of course, possible that the , authorities . have a reason for silence. They certainly say very little about the defence, against the submarine piracy, which -has been successful enough to divert,most of the submarine campaign or Germany to the "Mediterranean., The reason is obvious, namely, not to let the enemy know the game played against him. We can only hope the New iork story is trueIt has in its favour the fact that wo. have not heard anything of Zeppelin raids for some time, though the Germans'boasted of their magnificent preparations. ' :

The success of the ■ anti-submarine campaign in tho northern waters was due to, inter" alia, the employment ot 3000 destroyers, trawlers, and other craft. That quantity is, of course, not available for service in tho Mediterranean, at all events not immediately. It has been said that the loss inflated has cost the enemy eighty-niue, of his submarine flotilla, and it has been calculated that the destruction has more than kept pace with his building programme, which has been active. Ithas been pointed out, in addition, that by this time all his most experienced submarine commanders and seamen, have been drowned or imprisoned, mostly drowned. Nevertheless, his activity. in the Mediterranean is considerable and not comfortable to think of. The Navy' has the matter in hand, and may be relied on for effective defence. The effectiveness of the defence has startled the German Admiralty. It will probably startle it more. Tho piracy policy continues, chiefly i& the Mediterranean, hut it is a ghastly failure, except in the matter of useless killing.

A report has been issued of the bombarding operations on the Flemish coast, which gives a summary of considerable damage done. So far, however, it has not accomplished any serious operation on a large scale. That, of course, is still possible, for the enemy has shown himself utterly unable to interfere with it. The formidable character of this sectiou of our naval force is now so evident that we are justified in expecting great things from it daring the current year. • '• • In the Argonne, the enemy haa made another determined attack, exploding a big mine, and serious fighting ia going on around the crater. Further on he has been making attacks with gas, which have been repulsed. , Now, an attack with gas preparation is a big thing. It is evident, though we have not been told much, that the enemy is making serious attempts at an offensive on the West. The reports of his tempt* in Champagne, in the Argonne, and with gas, seem to clearly indicate so much. The Russian advance does not seem to have diverted many troops from this front. For his Eastern operations, he seeme to have been drawing on his reserves, and from the troops intended for the decision he wants in the Balkans. In the latter, however, he has certainly not slackened his efforts, in Montenegro, though he has not yet made his attach on Salonika. About that there is no word to-day.

The Mesopotamia news is better to-day. We havo details from a cor respondent at the front, who reports that the.relieving forces, after beating "tne- enemy, are still advancing. The Turks, he -reports, fought wed, maintaining a remarkably... hot fire from trenches very well placed and masked. One of ais" expressions" u

suggestive:—"The Turks were in considerable strength astride the river." That means that they must have overcome the fire of our gunboats, in which case the conjecture of' the surrounding of General Townshcnd'e force turns out to be not improbable. As the troops are still advancing, we may expect news of their success in due course. An Italian journal states that enormous quantities of German artillery are going to this front from Constantinople. They have 1300 miles of broken communication before them. They cannot therefore arrive in time—if they are on the march at all—for the present operations. Later, India can supply just as much artillery as may be required, and deliver it quicker.

The Compulsion Bill has passed its second reading by a huge majority, larger than the first oi»e substantially. The feature of the debate was Mr Henderson's speech, which was a wholehearted support of the measure, supporting the report of Reuter —received via New York—that the resignation of the Labour leaders has been withdrawn. The last Labour hurdle outside has still to be negotiated. But the second reading of the bill, with the surrounding circumstances, together with the very straight talk of Mr Asquith in his reply, indicate that the hurdle will not stop the run. The Datum will "not refuse the appeal to stand loyally by the Allies and see the war through to tho bitter end. A German authority, writing in the Socialist organ of Germany, takes that view, and solemnly warns his countrymen that Britain will fight through. As to the value of the troops raised by Britain, in haste, he tells his people to draw the moral from the Canadians and Australasians.