PROGRESS OF THE WAR

New Zealand Times, Volume XL, Issue 9174, 14 October 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The last news in yesterday’s budget was of the Bulgarian attack on the, Serbian troops, together with the unconcerned answer made by the Greek Premier on receipt of the news. There was much to complicate matters, of which the chief point was uncertainty as to tljo connection between the reported fighting and the statement of the Greek, Prime Minister. There was also some doubt about the correctness of the report of the' fighting. To-day the first news from Athens clears away both doubts. It is that Serbia officially informed the Greek Government, of the Bulgarian attack, and that the Premier replied /that Greece maintains armed neutrality. Now, the Serbo-Greek treaty of alliance provides- for assistance by Greece to Serbia in case of Bulgarian attack. Attack has - come, and Greece elects to do nothing! Declares armed neutrality; in other words, has armies assembled for the treaty, and will not use them. The other day, during the debate in the Chamber, which ended in the victory of M. Venizelos, then Premier, speakers on the aide of the minority wanted to disavow the Serbian treaty. That minority is non in power. It has practically disavowed the treaty. ,

The astonishing part of the story is that the ox-Premier, M. Venizelos, assured the Premier who has succeeded him, after wbat was virtually his dismissal by'the King, of his support in this refusal to abide by the treaty. But there is an element of mystery, for M. Venizelos added that while supporting a policy of armed neutrality and vigilance, ho recognised that the main question is: When will Greece take up arms against Bulgaria, which country is seeking aggrandisement at the expense of Greece, in a manner which, if successful, must destroy the cause of Hellenism ? The attitude of the Greek statesman is cryptic. • • • That is the opinion in Bulgaria, for of the three divisions into which the Bulgarian army is divided, one is left on the Greek frontier to watch the movements of the Greek army. Bulgaria fears these Greeks, and the gift of neutrality they bring. We presume the Bulgarian statesmen know what the sentiments of the Greek nation are, and are aware that the Entente Powers have certain powers ot persuasion, which, in the event of need, may prove irresistible.

At the same time Roumania has to bo watched, and to that duty another third of the Bulgarian army is assigned. There is, if M. lonascu is to be believed, no doubt about the national feeling in Roumania, while the soldiery are clamouring to be led against the Bulgarian army. In connection with these things the statement of the Roumanian Premier, M. Bratiano, to the Italian Government that “Roumanian co-operation with the Entente is certain, but Roumania will choose her own time in which to take the field, 5 ’ certainly gives a satisfactory feature to the situation. The position of Roumania is obviously ticklish. If the one-third of the Roumanian army were the only enemy force, there would be no reason for hesitation. But there is a powerful Austrian force on the Roumanian border, and the Russian armies of the southern section—General Ivanoff’s —which were slowly forging ahead, and had thrown 'some of their troops into the Bukowina are not ■ accelerating their march.' Some discretion about tho time of coming in is due to Roumania.

One service this State is performing. It is refusing passage to munitions for Bulgaria and Turkey. According to the “Daily Telegraph’s” Russian correspondent the Turkish army is without munitions. The Turkish Government has made up its mind that the Germans must arrive presently, and has therefore authorised the Turkish general in command at the Dardanelles to make use ,of what he has, an early supply being qertain. At all events Roumania is not facilitating the early supply, and the Germanic Powers do not seem to consider it advisable to use force. Therefore, the Turks depending on the arrival of the German troops on Turkish soil are of no account in the campaign at present. They wait for the Germans to come, but they cannot help them to break their way through- The servics rendered by Roumania is, therefore, very important.

The chances of the Oriental expedition breaking through thus are thf chief element in the situation. The Balkan tangle does not seem to help them much. The position of Greece is made more doubtful by later messages, which disclose bargainings for neutrality, in which appeal is made to both sides in the war. But even so, there is an element of uncertainty,

which tends to reduce the Ba-lkan tangle for the moment to something like an equilibrium. The Allied forces must count for something in this. They have not, according to the report today, moved beyond Salonika. This contradicts recent circumstantial reports of the systematic advance of those troops, and of tho gay reception given to the heads of the columns on arrival in Serbia. ' These troops seem, through the unreliability of all .Balkan reports, to have got in some way swallowed up in the Balkan tangle. The report to-day declares that the landing is proceeding. These troops must be available to help in the defence of the Serbian borders northeast of Nish, for the Bulgarians do not seem to have interfered-with the railway line of the Vardar, by Uskub to Nish, and the fact implies that the presence of tho Allied troops is acting as a deterrent. • • •' After these Balkan mysteries it is a relief to turn to the statement of the French Prime Minister, M. Viviani, which makes the attitude of the Allies very clear. After allowing for the paramount duty of France, which is to free French soil from the enemy’s grasp, the Allies have determined to send such powerful assistance to Serbia as to make them more confident of victory than they have ever been since the beginning of tiro war. British and French forces have been detailed, and Russian forces will presently he fighting side by side with them. This is the general statement of M. Viviani, from which it is right to deduce that preparations for giving adequate help to' Serbia have been matured. ■

• The first- step was taken when Bulgaria threw off the mask. Tho negotiations which led to that event were fully detailed by M. Viviani, and we find his description fitting accurately the course of events as reported from day to day in the cable messages, until the offer to Bulgaria of the conditions she had demanded compelled her to declare her position, which she did by mobilising her army. The new thing in the speech was the statement that at that pDfnt the Entente Powers negotiated with Greece for the landing of troops at Salonika- The ■ landing . arranged, the preparations have gone forward. The one thing missing, in the explanation .is reference to the troops of Italy. There is no mention of Italian troops to co-operate in barring the advance of the German Oriental expedition.' • • •

Following this speech, we have a later message to-day giving some particulars of the armada carrying the Allied troops and of their landing, which is still proceeding.* From the language of M. Viviani it is clear that the forces at Salonika for use in Serbia are powerful, and that they are to have the assistance of Russian divisions.

How these Russian divisions are to get to the scene of operations, we are, of course, left to imagine. Varna was bombarded some days ago, and from that circumstance it seemed as if there would' be 1 a landing there of Russian troops. But nothing has been heard from Varna since, except-—as we learn from a message to-day, whether true or not who can tell —that four German submarines are refuging there from the Russian Black Sea squadron. There is, however, nothing m the news of the last tew weeks to-support the statement that the Germans have any submarines in the Black Sea. At all events, if they have they have not done very much with them. As to the road by which Russian troops are coming into Balkan territory, there is nothing definite. W© have to conclude from the French Minister’s statement that there is W doubt that they are coming. It would not be surprising if they cam© by ■ Roumania. The Roumanian Premier has declared that nis country is in sympathy with the Entente Powers, and will come in when the time is propitious. Certainly the advent of a large Russian army by the Danube, or over the Bessarabian frontier, would make any time propitious. ' V

Help, then,- is coming from Salonika and from the East, the. latter in the shape of a Russian army, the former French and British troops. The combined strength is sufficient —the world is assured by M. Viviani—for helping Serbia to stem the tide of German war. This without any weakening of the Allied strength at important points. These troops will require some time- to get to the front. As their muster rolls grow larger, the difficulties of the Balkan tangle, we may feel sure, will grow smaller. Even Bulgaria may be driven by circumstances out of the course entered upon by the ambition of the King and his misguided statesmen. In that connection the report of the cheers given by mobilising recruits to the Allied diplomatists on their way out of the country is very significant.

Jjtill the question forces itself, “Will these deciding forces be in time? 55 That d e P®nds on the fighting in Serbia. Th© recent accounts of that fighting alter the views dUe to the first. The Serbian armies are, not retreating to their, central positions in their hill country without a severe struggle. They are disputing passage, they are inflicting heavy losses on the enemy, and over Considerable sections of the border they claim that they have repulsed him decisively . On tho other hand the enemy claims that ho is making a steady advance. It is not possible to decide now between these assaults. But if we are to believe that the Serbians are giving way all along the line it is obvious that they are not moving fast. It is also obvious that if they have put up so good a fight where the enemy has the full advantage of his great equipment, close to his communications, they , will be able to put tip a .better fight whjn they get into the hills away from those enemy advantages.

But they are being retarded in the near by the Bulgarian troops? It seems, according to the later messages, that some of the attack is noth inn- more serious than an affair of comitadjisj which lhas beeli countered hy the Greek troops on the Greek border. Further inland it does not appear that the Bulgarian divisions proceeding against ' Nish have accomplished anything more than a demonstration, and of this demonstration it is probable the growing strength of the Allied divisions at Salonika will prevent the further development, The advance of the Aus-tro-German forces will not, therefore, be accelerated bv the Bulgarian diversion. The Balkan tangle, if; mysterious to the outside world, seems at all events to be a thing formidable to the Bulgarian army, wherein all movement must be very circumspect.

Wo hare every confidence, after M. Viviani’s statement, that the arrangements of the Entente will prove quite sufficient to save the Serbian armies from destruction. These, however, aro hitting hard, and it js possible may hold their own. What is the weight of the invading armies? There are estimates to the value of which we have no guide at the moment. According to these, 400,000 Austro-German troops are advancing over the northern border, while 100,000 Bulgarians are moving on the eastern flank near the capital, with not more than 250,000 Serbians between the two invading armies. The Bulgarian attack we have given some reason for discounting, and the pace of the other is obviously slow, so slow that the. Allied reinforcements are pretty sure to come up in time. We get back thus again to the strength of the Austro-German invasion. Is it 300.000 strong? or 400,000? If 250,000 can hold it up, or impose upon it a slow rate of advance at* murderous cost, it begins to appear that the estimate of 'the invading strength may be exaggerated. Is it possible that the Germans, misled by the reports of the diplomatists as to the results of their negotiations, Have advanced with a weaker force than necessary, trusting to the operations of the Balkan States? Have they been led to believe that their invasion will be assisted by a great Balkan League, with nearly a million bayonets?, A few days will answer the question. For the moment, however, the only help the Germans can expect is Bulgarian. ; The value of that is doubtful, and the invasion from the north, if it can break down the Serbian resistance, does not appear to he strong enough to do so before the Allied armies detailed for the work can get into line to prevent the catastrophe. , The Serbians are putting up a good fight, and time is on their side. That appears to us to be the summary ot £Tie situation. « • • On the other fronts the war pressure on the Germanic Powers keeps up with increasing vigour. On the Bast front the Russian artillery is beginning to dominate, and what the French artillery can do is demonstrated by an illuminating account given by a wounded prisoner of the horrors of one of the recent bombardments. While the Germans lay stupefied under the '.'iron storm in their trenches they suddenly found the French infantry tearing at them with the bayonet. That is the character of the attack pressed oh the enemy at many points on the West front. How long will the resistance last? Ask that German war-.correspon-dent who wrote to his paper, as reported yesterday, that the German army in' Champagne is doomed to destruction. The ' essence of the situation is that the efforts of the Allies to stop the thrust athwart the Balkans are not diminishing by. one iota the steadilyincreasing pressure maintained against the other fronts-of war. That pressure was prepared long, and will not be loosened : until it breaks through. The thrust at the Balkans is a desperate gambler’s attempt to diminish that pressurey and as such has already failed conspicuously. • • • A further area of pressure has been added to'the complications of the Germans. Hitherto the Baltic trade has been one of the mam stays of Germany. Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have been supplying many things, some of them probably indispensable in the manufacture of munitions, imported from America to the Scandinavian ports and reshipped to Germany. Into this trade the British submarines have poked their noses. They have sunk the traders right and left, taking care in every instance to safeguard the lives of the crews. So many have they sunk that the trade has ceased. It is a marvellous coatrast to the German submarine blockade. As for. the German Navy, it has not shown any resources in dealing with the new enemy which has,; suddenly raided the last surviving section of the German commerce. Germany must be beginning to speculate sadly on the end of the war.

A cable from Sydney announces receipt of a message from London, stating that five steamers have i been torpedoed by submarines in the Mediterranean. It is strange that no such intelligence appears to have been published in London. It looks as if the Underwriters’ Association in London has picked up an unconfirmed story, which the ■ cable news agencies have not thought it worth while to notice. The matter is serious—-submarines at work in the Mediterranean, while largo bodies of troops are being conveyed to the East in transports. Were .t true, such a story would have created a tremendous flutter, which the" cables would have reflected with panicky fidelity. Decidedly the story requires confirmation.