WOOL PRICES AND PROSPECTS.

New Zealand Times, Volume LXXIV, Issue 4872, 26 January 1903, Page 4

WOOL PRICES AND PROSPECTS.

Perhaps no more cheering items of news have been published during the past fen' days than those bearing upon the wool market and tho prices now ruling for tho staple product of this country. Somewhat contrary to expectations, the prices realised at the London 'wool saios have materially advanced. Tho final series of sales closed in the world’s metropolis early in December amid scenes of considerable excitement. Not, our correspondent has observed, since 1899 have tho expectations of Homo buyers been so completely upset. They were, it appears, “swept off their feet” as regards their valuations and the limits of American and Continental buyers. The demand from the Continent of Europe had been continuous for some months, and at the September saios French manufacturers, much to tho surprise of everyone, carried oif all the unwashed wools offering. But t-be enterprise of Continental buyers was not Confined to the coarser sorts, for they frequently out-hid English manufacturers for the finest classes on the market; Not believing that tilts spirited competition, could he of an enduring character, the Home buyers held oif for a series of sales; hut the position was only changed for the better, viewing the market froni a producer's standpoint, when the December sales came on. Although it is natural that when stocks are low and a contracted output imminent, prices should appreciate, yet tho condition of Australia, as having an important bearing upon the wool supply of .the world, seems to hare been overlooked by the British manufacturer, and so he allowed his Continental rival to buy at the earlier sales at a much less price than he himself is now compelled to p-ay. Vvith empty wool-sheds and full orderbooks, t-no manufacturer could not stand idly by and sea the raw product he so much needed transferred to his neighbour across tho Channel. All this has contributed to the remarkable advance in values which lias just been reported as being in evidence at tho opening sales of tho new season last week. Tho recovery from the depression of this time throe years ago has been as complete as it has been unexpected. During last year we marked with satisfaction the rise in tho price of a commodity Oh wlffoh so much of our prosperity as a country depends. With the five and seven and a half par cent, rises recorded in the middle,of the year tho vaibn of wool had not then attained anything like what our producers consider a “paying” price; hut when

tho reports came that wool had advanced ton, fifteen mid twenty per cent., tho veriest pessimist could not refrain from expressions of extreme satisfaction. Still, there are somo among xis who persistently take lugubrious views of this country’s prospects and tho future values of its many and varied, products. Those people servo a useful purpose, no doubt, in restraining excess in periods of prosperity, but their disposition is nevertheless far from being an enviable one. Tho question of tho pessimist today, with tho advance of twenty per cent, recorded on tho prices obtaining at last December sales, is: “Will it last?” No one should prophesy unless ho knows. It is difficult to predict tho future of any commodity, and some who have staked their reputations and credit upon ineir judgments have not unfroqnenUy found themselves stranded upon the rocks of financial disaster. Five weeks ago wo were informed that many leading firms a-t Homo had aiscrodite-d Uio permanency of tho advances made in ah classes of wool at the December sales. They were then making strenuous efforts to “bear” the terminal markets. Tho arrival from tho Argentine of seventy thousand bales of crossbreds was to have changed tho fa-co of tho market and lowered values. But tho efforts of leading firms failed, and from the cablegrams before us neither the “bear” nor tho Buoncs Ayres have in tho least affected the demand for wool. Certain factors, however, exist, and somo influences are hound to operate, in maintaining wool values during tho present year. First, it may bo pointed out that tho gross arrivals for tho January sales totalled fl!5,000 bales, Bff,ooo of which were forwarded direct to Homo and Continental manufacturers. This Would leave, with the COOO carried forward, 138,000 bales for tho present sales, tv shortage cf 5-1,000 bales, as compared with tho supply available at tho same time last year. With a reduction in tho quantity offering, and with depleted stocks in manufacturers’ hands, is it not reasonable to believe that existing values will ha maintained during tho present year? It is, however, only fair to state that somo Whose judgment is regarded ns xiarticularly safe and shrewd affirm that the exigencies of tho wool market—particularly an abnormal demand on a short supply-j-will be effaced by the supplies coming forward from all parts of tho world. Tho off-set to this is tho shortage of Australian shipments, and their continued shortage for somo years to come, for tho loss of fifteen to twenty millions of sheep cannot bo mado good under the most favourable circumstances in less tlvan three or four years’ time. What, howover, is more to tho point, as far as our producers Arc concerned, is the fact that an increased consumption of crossbred wool has been manifested both at Homo and on tho Continent. Those branches.of the woollen industry which largely use tho coarser wools are particularly busy, and tho worsted cloth and serge-makers report an increasing demand for tho cheaper cloths. We cannot bolievo that anything like a permanent depreciation will take place in tho values of wool for at least twelve months, although it may happen that at tho March series, at which so largo quantities are usually offered, a slight decline may bo reported. Intelligence from tho scat of tho woollen industries also goes to show that tho utmost activity prevails, and while that is maintained the demand must continue and present prices bo uphold. Tho wool producers of this country aro to be congi’atulated upon tho prosperity that is theirs—a prosperity in which all classes cf tho community must ultimately participate.