THE FUTURE OF TRADE.

New Zealand Times, Volume LXXII, Issue 4732, 14 August 1902, Page 4

THE FUTURE OF TRADE.

Tho other evening Mr David Nathan, ■when speaking at a social function, seemed to many present to take a somewhat pessimistic view of the question of British trade. He declared it to be his conviction that within a certain number of years there would be a mighty change in the world’s commerce, and that unless something happened in tho meantime to upset his predictions, the great body of trade would bo- practically transferred from Great Britain and Europe to America and those countries bordering upon the Pacific Ocean. However much this idea may bo scouted by optimists and those who believe that the Anglo-Saxon people will continue to dominate the earth, there are reasons for believing that commercial enterprise and development must be ultimately transferred to the sphere indicated. It has been laid down as an axiom in questions of trade that nothing is true which cannot be proved by observation or experiment, where experiment is possible. Is there, then, in the economic development among nations anything that would justify Mr Nathan’s assertions? We think there is. By one school of political economists in Great Britain it is asserted that there is no necessity to hedge about the commerce of that country. “Old England,” they cry defiant-

ly, li is yet callable of holding her own against all-comers, and of beating them all.'’ Another school, fearing that nho British workman is being outdistanced, but not caring to admit it, make vigorous appeals for a sounder training of the youthful Britisher in economic questions and a more thorough technical education. The necessity for greater efficiency in national life is emphasised; oven Lord Rosebery affirms that “ the British public has become too amateurish.” But there is a more advanced school of economists who, while agreeing witli all that is urged in favour of eacli man becoming more competent in las calling, distinctly assert that Great Britain and Europe have already reached the acme of their economic development, and that their decadence is imminent, though not necessarily rapid.

It is with this latter school of economists that wo would more particularly deal, and from the citation of such facts as they are able to produce we shall endeavour to discover how near Mr Nathan’s prognostications may bo to the truth or otherwise. All who have given any thought to this subject are aware that the production of coal and iron is at the base cf Groat Britain’s industrial and naval supremacy. England has been able to produce coal and iron in greater abundance and more cheaply than any other country, and as late as 1865 she produced more of those commodities than all the rest of the world. Five years later —in 1870— Great Britain was producing as much iron as America, Germany and Franco put together. To-day Germany’s output of iron is as great as England s, while that of America is twice as ranch as cither. England’s production of iron was last year, according to Mr Ernest E. Williams, less than it was in any of the six preceding years, and less oven than it was twenty years ago. Thus we have it demonstrated that, if the production of iron is the proof of industrial supremacy, Great Britain is not only not bolding her own, but positively declining. Again, her production of coal, ono of the most powerful factors in industrial development and greatness, has steadily grown; but with a view to conserving her resources, the lato Chancellor of tho Exchequer imposed an export duty upon that commodity. This has had the effect of sending tho price up in England,*and of contracting tho supply of English coal abroad. Meanwhile, Germany and other countries aro developing their ooal-mincs. America has conspicuously outdistanced Great Britain, and is now, because of tho inexhaustible character of her coal areas and the efficiency of her mining methods, producing coal more cheaply than any other country. As ci?al and iron are the basic minerals of all industrial development and progress, and as the supply is practically limitless in the United States, it naturally follows that the world’s trade will gradually pass from tho Old World to tho New.

Yet. withal, there is no need to be pessimistic. The character of the British people must stand for something. It has yet to be shown that a race of people degenerates with the exhaustion of the mineral supnlics of the country in which they lived. As a decline in population is not always duo to the exhausted fertility of the country, so exhaustion of mineral supplies need not spell cither depopulation or deterioration. The rural population of England has declined, but the land is as fertile as ever, while in the people’s physique and character there is no sign of decadence. Ireland has only half the population she possessed fifty years ago, and none will say that the Emerald Isle has 'iminished in fruitfulness as a country’. Koonomic conditions arise against which neither character, nor industry, nor capital can stand; and as Britain’s mineral wealth becomes exhausted her sons will find ampje scope for their energy and enterprise either at Home or in those lands across tho sea that British enterprise and courage have already won. "With the development of China and Japan by the aid of British capital and tho progress of the western territory of the United States and the Canadian Dominion—all rich in coal and iron—together with the advancement of Australia and tho closer settlement of JNow Zealand, it is quite reasonable to believe that tho world’s commerce will bo in future as largely in the "acitio as it is to-day in the Atlantic, loantimo there is not tho slightest ’round for pessimistic notions of our nation’s future. Wo have seen Great Britain experience a decay in agriculture. and we have witnessed Greater Britain become tho granary and butchery of England; so wo may reasonably expect that, when England’s mineral wealth is exhausted, it will be replaced by the development of the mineral resources of her ovor-sea possessions. There is sentiment in patriotism, but for business one bit of- earth is as good as another if it is worth working; and even should the outlying portions of the Mmpire become more important in the next two centuries than England fierce If has been for ten. the contemplation of that prospect should not create in us any grievous depression. Whatever may happen, there is no reason to apprehend the downfall of tho industrial and commercial supremacy of the Briish people.