WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 1896. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

New Zealand Times, Volume LVIX, Issue 3004, 16 December 1896, Page 2

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 16, 1896. THE EUROPEAN SITUATION.

“ M. Neudofp, formerly Russian Minister at; Constantinople, is on a visit to the Emperor of Austria.” This brief cable’ massage, which we published yesterday morning, when read in the light of Austria's determination to, if possible, prevent an understanding between the Powers whereby reforms • in Turkey may be promptly and successfully carried out, is big with’fate". If read in conjunction with, the information despatched to the London Times by its Vienna correspondent there is presented to us a condition of things which may well cause a genuine feeling of alarm. “ If the Powers fail in their present efforts to compel the Porte to’executo the new reforms, the resources of diplomacy will be well nigh exhausted, and there will bo created a most serious situation.” So runs the despatch. Supported by Germany, Austria has for some, time past sown the seeds of dissension between the Powers, and it is this altitude at the present moment of two ot the Powers of the Triple Alliance which is rendering futile the efforts of diplomacy to solve the Turkish problem. British public opinion has been educated rapidly of late in the direction of that policy which declares that Russia should be regarded as the friend and ally of Great Britain j but it has been pointed out that “ Cyprus stops the way." Madame Novikoff, who makes this assertion, states that Prince Lobanoff, the late Russian Chancellor, declared to her at the Coronation of the Czar that if England were to rescind her obligations under the Cyprus Convention, Russia would not fail to immediately respond with proposals for a new departure. And this, lot it be remembered, from the lips of the man who in his life was known as " the anti-English Lobanoff.” Commenting on this phase of the question an English, writer remarks: —" We cannot give' Cyprus back to Turkey. If we annexed it to Egypt, people on’the Continent would say this was only a way of keeping it to ourselves. But we might cede it to Greece if she were strong enough to take it and teep it. No one, however, can doubt that this matter must hove occupied some part of the two serious interviews Lord Salisbury had with the young Czar at Balmoral. If His ■ Majesty had from our Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary an explicit assurance that onr obligations to defend Turkey against Russian aggression were .absolutely at an end, and that we were, willing to leave the suzerainty of Cyprus to be settled later, then Russia • would have all the guarantee she could require that she had no longer anything to fear from the pact of 1878. That agreement was. Be it remembered, not directed against whatever the Powers might decide upon in relation to Turkey in Asia, but- against Russian .isolated aggression. If there is to be a coerciveunion between Groat Britain, Prance and Russia, with Italy benevolent, the Cyprus Convention has no bearing upon practical politics. Austria-Hungary can join with he in the good work if , she will, but . she cannot be allowed to thwart it; .and as for Germany, she really has no Interest fa the matter, exoeptfcer recently-acquired interest in Anatolian railways, which the Sultan,, almost openly, gave her as a bnbh for her support." No one doubts that the way has been wade plain for .an alliance with Russia, mi the fact that proposals have been ma 4s apd discussed m- the British press without raising the oyer-ready jingoistic howl against, all foipgs Russian proves conclusively that there been a complete revulsion of feeling amongst the British people. The failure of England to prevent the butchery of the Armenians the powerlessness of diplomacy to deal with the.question though the most, powerful of European nations have long since determined that national honour was concerned in the forcing of reforms upon the brutal Saltan, brings home to Mho heart of the nations the stupendous blunders of tha past. Bui this the case whero- Great Britain W corned. More than over is it apparent her thab in seetdn** ko prereat bn© •tion of Russia in Turkey she has rendered herself powerless to intervene even in tfca face of the horrors which have shocked and shamed the • Christian world. What, then, will be the position supposing Russian diplomacy sod? OJ'l 3 * to dealing

with the disturbing element from Austria ? The answer com© to us in the'Words of Sir “Alfred Lyall, in a lecture on “ England's Relations with Russia,” delivered at Toynbee Hall before '4 crowded and enthusiastic gathering of Inglishmen. “If Russia,”he declared,” g>%. her way, be did not believe she woult attack and destroy the Sultan, but wotld gradually reduce him under her anthorty co that he would bo obliged to obey the orders of tlie Czar and allow Russia to forify the Dardanelles. If Russia did thal she would hold the .narrow passage letween the Black Seaand the Mediterranian, of which at present the Sultan hold thf key. Russia would then have obtained ho/ groat object of turning the Black Sea iito a Russian lake, of which the only outlet would be in her hands. She would be impregnable from all attack from the soutk, and become a formidable naval Power ii the Mediterranean, and if she were hostile she would be able to threaten our communication with India through Egypt Well, this would not altogether suit Egypt, uuless Prance, Austria and Germany, _ who were really more concerned in adar.tting another great navy into the Mediterranean than we were, gave their consent. It was a matter fur concerted action. No one could doubt that Turkey must bo reformed, and no one, h© thought, could doubt that thebest way of bringing aboit reforms and of protecting the Armenians was to come to gome understanding with Russia. In regard to the other great Asiatic countries, there was still time to try the greit experiment of leaving thorn alone, providing Russia and England come to some understanding with them. The question wts, how was an agreement to be brought about ? The question of Turkey was not far from settlement, and if Russiv- demanded the right of sending waiships into the Mediterranean through the Dardanelles the Sultan certainly would not refuse her demand. If the other Powers agreed he did not see-why we should quarrel with Russia on that score; and it h® s®* membered-tbat we ourselves held both the gates of the Mediterranean. With such a strong position, he did not think it worth .while to go on trying *>y ourselves to .block out Russia.”