THE New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY). TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 1888.

New Zealand Times, Volume L, Issue 8274, 3 January 1888, Page 4

THE New Zealand Times (PUBLISHED DAILY).

TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 1888.

With which are incorporated the Wellington Independent, established 184-5, and the New Zealander.

The year 1888 opens with a singularly complex and menacing political situation in Europe. We have on the one hand the very emphatic—indeed, we might say, ostentatious—announcement alike from Germany, Austria, and Italy of the firm alliance, offensive and defensive, among those three Great Powers, and the tolerably plain hint that Great Britain is virtually a fourth party to that formidable combination. It is at the same time pretty distinctly understood, if not openly expressed, that the Powers against which this league has been formed are primarily Russia and, secondarily, Prance. We have, on the other band, the most gushing assertions of Russia’s unalterable friendship for Germany, and equally gratifying assurances of the affectionate relations between France and England. Yet we see at the same time the most feverish energy of open military preparation on the part ot Francs, and such an aggressive mobilisation by Russia on the Austrian frcut'er as approaches very closely indeed to a casus belli, if indeed so scarcely concealed a menace do not actually amount to a direct provocation-war-ranting an Austrian ultimatum. We see also the Russian Press urging passionately that Russia should take her own course in Bulgaria and establish her own ascendancy there regardless of Austrian views, and we see General Boulanger retiring from political life wilh the explicitly-declared object of taking part in the impending war. What does all this complication point to ? If Russia precipitates a collision with Austria, in what shape will the Triple Alliance make itself felt ? One would imagine that Germany and Italy would necessarily side with Austria ; and Italy, no doubt, would appear as the firm ally of her aucient foe and oppressor. But what does the recent declaration of warm friendship between Germany and Russia mean ? Is it possible that Germany has been persuaded by Russia—with (he aid of the consideration that in the event of war France would assuredly assail Germany in the rear—to hold aloof in case of a mere struggle for ascendancy in Bui garia ? It must be borne in mind that both France and Russia have lately adopted a specially conciliatory attitude toward England, apparently doing their best to leave the latter Power no excuse for joining the Triple Alliance should war break out. It may be that at this critical juncture the counsels of Great Britain, enforced by a significant indication of her determination not to allow the three Central Powers to be crushed, will have large weight in preventing or delaying the disturbance of peace. England is now ruled by a strong and able Government of (he party always famed for the strength of its foreign policy. In Lord Salisbury it has a very different helmsman from the capricious and Vacillating Gladstone, who has ever displayed signal weakness iu his dealings with foreign Powers. The European nations are well aware that the present Ministry would not allow |England's vast interests to be im-

perilled or tampered with for the sake of any mere fad, or metaphysical crotchet, or personal or political animoi sity, and this knowledge alone gives the voice of England enormous weight just now. In a struggle between a Franco-Eussian coalition on the one hand, and the Triple Alliance on the other, the combatants would be matched with sufficient evenness to render the final result somewhat doubtful. But the addition of England's weight would leave the issue in no doubt at all, and it is not an unreasonable theory that the question of peace or war may turn upon the practicab'lity or impraetic ability of securing Great Britain’s neu trality. The situation is a most perplexing one, and the war clouds loom very dark ; still if this theory be a sound one, they may yet pass away for the time, and it is at least favourably significant that the English Premier should have proclaimed so recently his conviction that the peace of Europe would be preserved. Let us earnestly trust that the year upon which we have just entered may not be disgraced by the terrible crime of a great European war.