WILL THE WAR SPREAD?

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1682, 25 May 1904, Page 64

WILL THE WAR SPREAD?

AN AMERICAN VIEW. The awful humiliation to which Russia will be subjected (writes "Harper's Weekly”) should she be decisively beaten by an Oriental power, which she has effected to despise will, unquestionably, prompt her to seek revenge. Sooner than, assent on her knees to any terms that the Japanese victor might see fit to impose, she Avould accept her share of a world-wide disaster, and see all the great naval powers involved in the Par Eastern conflict. Should she, therefore, be beaten on land, as she has already been beaten at sea, she is likely to spare no effort to gain the active aid of Prance and Germany. Both of the last-named poAvers co-operated, it Avill bo remembered, Avith Russia in 1595 to extort from. Japan a retrocession to China of the Liao-tung peninsula, a retrocession quickly followed by a long lease of the coveted tongue of land to Russia. At that time, however, Prance and Germany had obtained from the British Foreign Office assurances that Lord Rosebery, then Premier, would not uphold Japan in a refusal’ of their demand. The situation at the present time is. obviously very different. A treaty exists between England and Japan, which binds the former party to assist the latter ,in the event of Russia’s securing support from a first-rate European power. Now, although Prance, Germany, and Kussia might have ventured to confront Great Britain on the ocean m 189 a, when Russia ranked as the third naval power on earth, while Japan’s strength at sea was looked upon as a negligible quantity, it is obvious that the case to-day is materially altered. France ■ and Germany ha™ already built or are building 61 battle-ships, against a British total of 63 battle-ships. In respect of armoured cruisers Great Britain is very much superior ’to both France and Germany united. Moreover, Great Britain at this iunctura would not be fighting alone, for she would have the co-operation of the active and victorious navy of Japan. On the other hand, France and Germany could derive no assistance for the mo-

went from Russia's depleted and discredited fleet. In a word, no naval expert would dispute the preponderance on iho ooean, under existing 1 circumstances, of a Britisli-J apanese coalition to a belated combination of Russia France, and Germany. We hardly need add that if the navy of the United States were cast into the scale of the British and Japanese allies, the war-vessels of France and Germany would be sunk, captured, or driven from the sea.

.We assume, therefore that only with extreme reluctance would France or Germany now enter upon a struggle which, on Russia's part, has been so gjdevqpsly mismanaged, and' from which neither of the first named powers could hope for anything hut maritime disaster. ,Neither 31 Combes, the French Premier, nor M. Delcasse, the Minister for Foriegn Affairs, makes any secret of his personal ■unwillingness to be sweet into the Far Eastern vortex. S'o intimate, however, are the financial, political, and sentimental relations of France to Russia that a popular upheaval might at any moment subvert the existing Cabinet, and substitute a Ministry committed to the immediate succour of the Czar. The money lent by France to Russia during the- last decade is variously computed at from one .billion four hundred million dollars to two hilliomdollars. The bankers through whom that stupendous sum was lent would do almost anything to avert a suspension of interest. 'We know how grave an effect was produced oil French national sympathies during our war with Spain, by the relatively insignificant loans that had been made in Paris to the Madrid Government. It is-. moreover, only fair to say that the misapprehensions of an uneasy creditor do niot constitute the sole basis of French sympathy for the Czar. But for the friendship of the Russian sovereign, Fj ance would have stood for many years, and would now be standing, in helpless and hopeless isolation, at the mercy of the Triple Alliance. Every decent Frenchman is keenly alive to the knowledge that to the Czar is due the rehabilitation of his couhtry in its own eyes and in the eyes of the world. For France to evince ingratitude to Russia would he at ouce base and short-sighted: and for that reason we find it difficult to believe that she would turn her back upon the Czar if a demand for her assistance should be imperatively made. It is true that on February 29th the Combes Government was upheld by a majority of 77 in the Chamber of Deputies in its refusal to discuss the whole question of the war, but there were -some omniouS incidents in the course of the debate. M. Firman Faure, a Nationalist member, assailing bitterly M. PelJetan, tbe Minister of Marine, and M. Down er, formerly Governor-General of Tndo-China, and now president of the Budget Commission, threatening to undertake an independent investigation, of the present condition of the navy. M. B owner, who is one of the most outspoken and influential sympathisers ivith ■ Russia in. the French Chamber, is known to be the author of the article published recently in the "Figaro,” which revealed for the. first time Russia's offer to join with France in a war against England at thertime of the Fashoda affair. It is, in a word, on Paris that the eyes of on.ruokers who desire to see the war localised should be fixed; for there may be witnessed at any moment an outburst of pro-Russian, sentiment that will drive, not only France but England, and, eventually, half of Ehrope, into the ' Far Eastern contest.