WOOL MARKET PROSPECTS.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 1156, 27 April 1894, Page 5

WOOL MARKET PROSPECTS.

The Melbourne Argus of a recent date has a hopeful article on the pios pectsofthe wool market, in which an improvement in prices is looked to with considerable confidence. It points out that "for five years ever since December, 1889—the price of wool has been falling almost incessantly. While of course there have been temporary fluctuations from month to month, there has hardly been a single year during that period when the price of wool has not been much lower at tbe end than at the beginning. It is opposed to all experience and preceient to suppose that such a movement can go on without becoming greatly exaggerated and going too far. Of course no precedents, and no calculation can state positively when it has gone too far or when the turning will occur. This must ever remain a matter of opinion based upon one's individual judgment, whether good or bad. We are decidedly of opinion, however, that the downward movement has already gone too far, and that it now partakes more of the nature of a panic than a legitimate trade development, and also that the turniug point is very near at hand. In other words, we look for a substantial recovery in the value of wool before many months have passed." The definite reasons assigned for this view are as follow :

1. The period of depression has now lasted so long that in the ordinary course of events the reaction is almost due, and probably overdue. 2. The reaction would probably have come last year had it not been delayed by two very untoward events, of, however, only a temporary character. 3. One of these was the greit coal strike in England last year, which inflicted an enormous loss upon the wage earners of that country, and which vastlv diminished their purchasing power and had a very bad effect upon trade.

4. Tbe other was the intense depression iu trade in the United States, one of the best customers which the inanu facturers of Europe possess.

5. The coal strike has now been at an end for some time, and the wageearners of fJngland, who during that great strike did not cease to wear out their clothes, are now becoming better able to replenish their wardrobe. 6. Tbe prospect of a radical reform in the tariff has up to the present tended to restrict trade and enterprise in the United States, business men naturally holding back until the abolition or reduction of the duties shall give them a wider choice of goods at lower prices. 7. For this reason a great revival in trade in the United States may not unnaturally be looked for when the tariff is settled, probably in a few months, for then people will know what they are doing and on what basis they can operate. 8. The commercial treaty between Russia and Germany, which is now

practically accomplished, will give a greatly improved outlet for German manufactures, and may be expected to stimulate trade upon the Continent. The Argus is undoubtedly the leading Australian paper on matters of finance and commerce, and its opinions are, therefore, of value as indicative of the judgment of thoughtful men.