THE COMING EUROPEAN WAR.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 946, 18 April 1890, Page 9

THE COMING EUROPEAN WAR.

The Brussels correspondent of the Paris Matin has had an interesting interview with Major H. Girard, the officer of the engineer corps in the Belgian army who recently resigned his commission in order to be free to write his somewhat startling pamphlet, La Belgique et la Guerre Prochaine. “ The collision between France and Germany,” said he, may be retarded, but it is none the less inevitable. The possibility of a peaceful retrocession of Alsace-Lorraine by Germany is too absurd for discussion.” After stating that the interest of Belgium in the present situation was to become the ally of whichever one of the belligerents would offer the best terms, he declared that the Belgian fortresses were worthless, and that the entrenched camp at Antwerp could not hold out for forty-eight hours. “The first cannon shot will be sufficient to dispel all the illusions of the Belgian people. It is well known that our army, deprived as it is of the indispensable elements for a rapid mobilization, could not be ready to fight until long after the country could be invaded, occupied, and traversed. Our resisting force consists, at the maximum, of 120,000, including the militia. To ho ! d Antwerp with the development given to the fortifications of that place, we still need at least 80,000 men, without counting the garrisons necessary at Libge, Neinur and other places. What then would remain for ns to offer battle with at any given point ? And will we even be able to dispose of that 120,000 men ? That is very doubtful ; for at the moment of the declaration of war, which will be sprung upon U 3 in short order, how wiil our militiamen have time or possibility to rejoin their corps before being captured by the invaders ? ” “ But,” remarked the correspondent, “ could uot France and Germany come to blows without the necessity of fixing on Belgium for their battle ground ? ” “It is impossible,” replied Major Girard, “ that the military chiefs of both countries have not fully studied that matter ; and from a strategic point of view, either of the belligerents that should neglect to take possession of the whole or a part of Belgian territory must compromise by that omission the result of ulterior operations. My profound conviction is that the concentration of the French and German armies will be effected on Belgian territory. For that concentration the Germans have five lines of railway, capable of throwing in ten days 500,000 men between Aerschot and Huy, at a rate of 10,000 a day for each line. Twenty-four hours after a declaration of war, which will probably be in the evening, the German cavalry ‘will be able to

occupy Hassell, Saint-Trond, Tirlemont, Maestrecht, <tec. The French concentration can be effected in the same lapse of time on the lino between Alost and Maubeuge, and also twenty-four hours after the declaration of war the French cavalry can occupy Alost, Termonde, Ath, &c. You see, then, that except the militia of Malines and Brussels all the rest in tho whole region between the Meuse and the Escaut will be unable to move. In a word, after a careful study 1 have become convinced that Belgium is completely at the mercy of coming events.”