THE PEACE OF EUROPE.

New Zealand Mail, Issue 934, 24 January 1890, Page 22

THE PEACE OF EUROPE.

We hope the peace of Europe is assured, as has been set forth in our cable advices somewhat emphatically. That

there ia something to read between the line 3 is, however, equally appa rent, and makes for an opposite direction. Peace! peace! is on everybody’s lips. We believe that the magnates of the world i-incerely desire to preserve peace. Not a Royal family in Europe but prefers peace to war. The boundary lines of all States are so clearly defined that, excepting Alsace and Lorraine, no one State has a show of a pretence, based on right, to claim neighbouring territory. Alsace and Lorraine are still open sores that, however, are gradually closing up. We do not think tlia.tr their recovery will ever be a casus ...belli between France and Germany. For twenty long years France has threatened revenge, but the threats are reduced to mere mutterings now. .Peace and its blessings have been maintained and expe rienced all that time, and the idea of war is becoming very distasteful to the great bulk of the people, and nothing but intense provocation from abroad or the advene of another Napoleon at home will make war palatable. As for a military adventurer, one has just received his conge, at the hands of the people. Boulanger is a pronounced failure He may have been a victim of rollstuffing at the recent elections that renewed the Republic’s lease of life, but that only brought into prominence his weakness to control adverse causes. To succeed with the French people, strength, as well as audacity, is indispensable, and ruthlessness in a crisis. Boulanger has audacity, but be is not a strong man. He may be described as a Napoleonic shadow. We believe that the consensus of French opinion is for peace. And the same may be said of Germany, Austria, and Italy. It is true that preparations for war are unceasing with them, but the cause is defence, not offence. Their alliance has averted war, and its maintenance will still further remove the evii day. Europe is mapped out under treaty rights, in which Turkey is included, and the preservation of those rights Rill ensure peace. And it is hero that uncertainty is apparent. For there ia one Power, and a huge one, to whom, when an end is to be served, treaties are but as waste paper. Russia will not be bound, never has submitted co permanent restraint. She has assented under pressure, but always with mental reservation. She has rent the Treaty of Berlin asunder, and stands untrammelled confessedly wailing for the opportunity that may bo presented when least expected. But at present Russia declares for peace ; and why ? Because of the distraction of internal dissension.

* Peace is apparently assured for another vear, but only apparently. Arid all the Great Powers recognise this. Much stress has been laid on the recent utterances of the Emperor of Germany. Speaking independently he bade bis subjects be prepared to march at any moment to the frontiers, to be ready for the worst; but, speaking under Bismarckian advice, he assured them that the preservation of peace was imminent. But both Bismarck and the Emperor know very well there is trouble brewing between Austria, Bulgaria, aod Russia. That is the European weak spot. Prince Alexander of Bulgaria is Austria’s protege , and liis presence and rule in l Bulgaria is a standing defiance to Russia, who claims the right and, if fortune favours her, will insist upon exercising it some day, of nominating the rulers ot Bulgaria. And that, no doubt, wiil precipitate war. And it is here that the Triple Alliance is menaced. Bismarck baa declared outright that Germany will not fight in a Bulgarian quarrel pure and simple, while Austria is interested quite the other way. Relations between Austria and Russia are even now strained over the Bulgarian question, and The Times’ correspondent at Vienna is evidently, or was iu November last, in very serious doubts as vo the position.- His information is clearly official, and according to the i opinion of the Spectator amounts to j tlnV, that Prince Bismarck in his in- | terviow with t he Czar, arid <n ord- n r to conciliatHhim, agreed toal rvo- ■ o re-establish her influence m li-n-.-.-.r-a “‘teem’ding to. the Treaty «-r;»u/' and that he is pressing Austria and

Hungary to follow the same policy and refrain fiom favouring the existing administration, at Sofia. Prince Fee dinand is never to be recognised, and Bulgarian loans are novs r to be issued by Viennese firms, and the correspondent concludes wifcn the words, “It is vain to disguise ihat the maintenance *f peace under the new conditions must depend, to some extent, on the action which M. Stambooloff, the Bulgarian Premier, may take."’ Austria, however, keeps a bold fron% and seems resolved to show that the German alliance is not. one-sided, and from the fact that another Bulgarian loan has just been subscribed six times over at Vienna, it would seem that there is a perfect understanding between Austria and Germany, and that the former holds her own. But Russia is still only biding her time, and if her house was not so divided against i;self, the forebodings of The Times’ correspondent would very likely have been verified in part. Russia would have dared A ustria in Bulgaria, and so tested German sincerity. And those home dissontions of Russia are the guarantee of the peace not only of Europe, but of the world, for once Russia’s internal differences were adjusted she would become terribly aggressive, and then would be seen the outcome of the secret understanding, that undoubtedly exists, between France and her. Russia’s internal dissensions, however, seem to have become chronic, and, more thaa that, are undergoing aggravation. The Empire is honeycombed with Nihilism, aud by the time that is disposed of it strikes us that I ranee will have very little stomach for an alliance with Russia tor pur poses of aggreseiou. It is always possible that the Egyptian Question may act as a dangerous irritant, but even that, in our opinion, will undergo modification as time rolls on, and a policy of give-and-take betw.eeu Trance and England be more recognised by both. We believe that Europe is on the verge of a mighty revolution, but it will be a social one, in which big guns and deadly rifles and hellish explosives will not be prominent factors —at least, not actively. But that is only an opinion. Comparatively insignificant causes often bring about startling and terrible war results. At the same time we will asßume that the peace of Europe is assured lor another year —and they who are not quite prepared for war will bo wise to make good use of that period of grace.