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New Zealand Mail, Issue 764, 22 October 1886, Page 22

If we may judge from the tenour of the latest cable news from Europe, the dark cloud of impending war which lias overhung the civilised world for several weeks is beginning to lift, aud there are grounds for hoping that the imminent storm may once more pass over. The resolute attitude of a ustro-Hungary, backed by the moral support of England and Germany, and the certainty that physical support would not be wanting, should that be needed, has evidently exercised a salutary influence upon Bussia and France. One might add that the combined firmness and moderation of Bulgaria has not been without its usefulness in the present crisis, but that firmness Was so palpably inspired wholly by the influence of the Great Powers that it hardly calls for notice, except in passing, as a minor incident in the great drama, although very-eloquent in its indication of “ the way the wind blows.” We see the Bulgarian Government calmly defying Russia, her threats, and her agents ; censuring the Russian Consul for meddling with the domestic politics of Bulgaria, aud warning him to mind his own business ; openly flouting the high and mighty Russian Commissioner, General Kaulbars, and arresting the Bulgarian Commandant of Bustcbuk for obeying General Kaulbars in defiance of bis own Government. All this means a great deal more than mere pluck and determination ©n the part of the Bulgarians. They may be courageous enough up to a certain point, but they are not so courageous as to slap Russia’s face unless well assured of a greater might than that of Bussia at their back. It is difficult to arrive at any other conclusion than that the weight of so potent a combination as that of England with Germany and AustroHungary has borne down all doubts or hesitation on the part of Bulgaria. There was a time when some uncertainty might have been observed to be felt as to the attitude most prudent to be assumed. Prince Bismarck was not unwilling that England should be manoeuvred into the responsibility for pulling the Bulgarian chestnuts out of the fire. But events moved too fast even for the Brussian Chancellor. A stage had been reached at which the menace to Austro-Hungary was far more immediately formidable than that to England, and the Austro-Hungarians could no longer be restrained by the shackles of the cold-blooded Bis-

marckian policy. M. Tisza spoke out boldly and decisively, and in a moment the whole aspect of affairs was* changed. The Bulgarians felt themselves standing on solid ground, and seeing their way clearly at last,* proceeded on their course regardless of Russian tricks and menaces. It is a pity that Prince Alexander had notpossessed more backbone. Had he displayed as much resolution in political affairs as he did physical? courage iin the war with Servia,, lie might yet have made himself a prominent figure m history instead of y sinking into a mere subsidised hangeron of Bussia. But his future careermatters little to the world at large ; nor would even the fate of Bulgaria matter very much but for the momentous issues that depend upon the ownership of that country. A Russian occupation of Bulgaria would constitute au intolerable menace- to the rest of Europe; and most of all to Austro-Hungary. The four great fortresses which onceformed the famous Quadrilateral — Shumla, Varna, Silistria, and Rustcliuk —although dismantled since the Treaty of Berlin, would have been speedily if secretly restored to morethan their former strength were Bussia iu possession, and then if would be no easy matter to dislodge her. Evidently the European Powere have agreed that this cannot be permitted, aud Bussia has simply drawn in her horns for the present, toawait a more favourable opportunity when a Conservative Ministry shall not be in power in England* Such, at least, is the conclusionsuggested by the latest news. We find Lord Randolph Churchill makinga visit incognito to Vienna aud Berlin ; the Berlin Bourse discrediting Russian securities ; Austro-Hungary refusing to discuss army reforms “ when the country is possibly on the eve of a great war ” ; Germany rejecting the invitation of France and Bussia to join in a demand for the,English evacuation of Egypt; Bussia complaining of England’s unjust suspicions and distrust; the French papers earnestlydenying .that France desires war, and eagerly repelling the imputation of intriguing against England—all this is highly significant, and seems to point distinctly to a revulsion of feeling on the part of the two bellicose Powers. Bussia and France have ascertained plainly that, if they force on a war with England and Austria, they will band together all Europe againstthem, and this is a prospect not tobe faced with equanimity. Accordingly we observe the French Press loudly asserting* that the tendency of their Government is toward peace, and that their armaments are for defensive* and not offensive purposes. It is cheering to see that some of the French papers are now deploring the warlike tone of the English Press, and urging that the leading journals should endeavour to improve the relations between England and France;. ' also to observe that a section of the French Press admits the absence of any right on France’s part to establish a settlement in the New Hebrides. All this is very right and proper in itself, and it is unnecessary to enquire why the sadden alteration of tone has occurred. It is sufficient to learn that there is this satisfactory change from the quarrelsome attitude of a few days ago, and that present indications point to peace rather than war* Let us hope that these indications will prove to be accurate ; that wiser counsels have prevailed ; aud that the horrors of a gigantic war among the world’s greatest; Powers may once more be averted. * ,