The New Zealand Herald AUCKLAND, MONDAY, AUGUST 14, 1944 TENSE DAYS IN THE EAST

New Zealand Herald, Volume 81, Issue 24971, 14 August 1944, Page 2

The New Zealand Herald AUCKLAND, MONDAY, AUGUST 14, 1944 TENSE DAYS IN THE EAST

Russia's armies in Poland and the Baltic States resemble a boxer fighting near the limit of his reach. Pressure can be exerted, but is only that of the fingers on outstretched arms. Before further heavy blows, possibly the knockout punch, can he delivered the body of the Russian armies must be brought closer. In the meantime the seconds on the German side are doing their utmost to refresh their tired champion in the hope, a vain one, that he will be able to last a few more rounds. They are now reduced to the equally vain hope that by avoiding the knockout blow there will be something for them in the loser's end ot the purse. All this in military terminology is known as regrouping preparatory to the resumption of large-scale operations. Its necessity can be explained by a simple illustration. Everyone knows the wonders of modern motor transport, but few realise its limitations. Railways are still pre-eminent for hauling large quantities of goods over long distances. Obviously, the railways cannot keep pace with advancing armies, especially when the lines are extensively damaged in the manner of the Germans. Motor transport fails to meet the needs of armies when the gap between the railheads and the fighting formations exceeds SO miles, or roughly the distance between Auckland and Hamilton, Christchurch and Ashburton, Dunedin and Oamaru. The 80-mile gap means a daily return journey of 100 miles. There are few drivers who can maintain such a schedule for any length of time. Even if plenty of relief drivers are available, the trucks need overhaul and petrol, oil and water stations must be established at frequent intervals along the roads. When armies have great battles ahead of them they need abundant supplies close at hand, not a trickle coming in at the end of a long motor-truck supply system. The many local advances of the Russians which are being reported are primarily consolidation operations or the acquisition of better tactical zones from which they will launch the final battles. The Soviet command is as aware as anyone that the Germans are endeavouring to take the fullest advantage of the comparative lull to improve their defences and rebuild as many as possible of their shattered divisions. German commentators are stating a simple truth when they say this is a time of crisis for the Reich. The reorganised and purged German command cannot believe there is the slightest possibility of holding the Russians on the present lines. It must be living in daily, if not hourly, expectation of another Russian attempt at a break-through. A number of adequate reasons can be found for the enemy's refusal to adopt the obvious course of evacuating the whole of the Baltic States and"Poland to fight on a shorter front where he would have the aid of substantial reserves. The wishes of the High Command have given way too often to expediency. But poor as may be the prospects, it must strive to prevent disasters like those on the Vitebsk line ; when retreat becomes necessary it must conduct it in orderly fashion. A repetition of the White Russia disintegration would quickly see the Soviet armies in Germany proper. So confident are the Russians of their strength and their ability to deal finally with the Germans in this campaigning season that they appear to be at little pains to screen their intentions. Three armies are massing against the East Prussian arc, for East Prussia must be cleared ere a great advance can be made in the centre on the shortest and easiest way to Berlin. Warsaw is being encircled. Further south, the Russians are improving their bridgeheads over the Vistula with the advanced guards of their columns pointed at Cracow, the gate to Silesia, and thence Berlin, and also by way of Moravia into central Cechoslovakia and Vienna. Still further south and to the east the Russians are occupying towns in the Carpathian foothills. All of these movements give the Germans cause for apprehension. They must be no less concerned with the developments in Bulgaria and Finland. Their official news agency has been obliged to deny reports that Bulgaria and Finland are working for an armistice. It seems clear that the Bulgarians are making overtures to Russia and Turkey in order to prevent their country from becoming a battleground. In Finland, LieldMarshal Mannerheim has issued an order that "the fight for Finland's existence and future must continue," hut this does not rule out peace negotiations. When to all these anxieties are added the reverses inflicted daily upon the enemy in France and Italy and the scarcely tonic effect on army morale of the treason plot and purge, the German High Command must be bathed in gloom.

AMERICA IN THE PACIFIC The responsible voice ol the United States on affairs in the South Pacific was heard from President Roosevelt in his address at Seattle. He spoke with the whole vast map of the Pacific, political and economic, fresh in his mind after conferences with naval and military staffs in Hawaii, Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. The breadth of his view, moderate yet firm, offered a healthy contrast to some of the less tempered opinions expressed on postwar arrangements. So long as his attitude prevails, then all will agree with the President that, .with the. eclipse of Japan, the outlook for permanent peace in the whole Pacific is excellent. Referring to the South Pacific area, Mr Roosevelt said America had no desire to ask for any of the possessions of the United Nations—Britain, France, the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand. He did express confidence, however, that they would be glad to join with America in protection against aggression—in "fair and friendly collaboration." So far as New Zealand is concerned, his confidence is justified. We recognise and appreciate what we have already gained

and from what we have been preserved by American aid. We know that national security will in the future be guaranteed by a continuance of "fair and friendly collaboration." On those terms New Zealand will be glad to see the existing protective association perpetuated. But, as Mr Nash emphasised months ago, concessions must be mutual, whether they apply to bases, air transit rights, or whatever else. The same applies to trade. Mr Roosevelt foresees great commercial developments. lie will not be disappointed if America's neighbours in the Pacific are given the opportunity to sell in order to pay for the goods they are eager to buy from I lie United States. In 19U8, the last normal trade year, New Zealand spent almost .£."> with America for every £l the United States spent here. A more equitable basis will once again be found in the principle of mutuality.

AFTER FLORENCE With the occupation of Florence, General Alexander's army in Italy is now coming hard up against the Gothic line, crossing the butt-end of the peninsula from Pisa to Rimini. r l*he Allied leaders will no doubt be weighing the relative advantages of a direct assault on the line or of attempting to turn it by landings in Yugoslavia or on the Riviera coast. Kesselring is now backed by the strong natural defensive position created by the Ftruscau Apennines, stretching from coast to coast, the only flat, land being a shelf on the Adriatic llank. General Alexander is faced by a barrier at least as formidable as, and more continuous than, that presented by the Gustav line at Cassino. It may be significant that he recently visited London, presumably to take stock of the position with the chiefs of staff. The Allies may well consider that they have won all the objectives of strategic value in Italy and that penetration to the Po Valley would not bring returns commensurate with the military expenditure involved in reducing the Gothic line. A descent on South France or an invasion of Yugoslavia might be more profitable and promise speedier dividends. The success of either operation would also make Kesselring's present line untenable. The study of these problems may account for the visit to Italy of* Mr Churchill and of the United States leaders, Mr Patterson and General Somervell, and for the earlier stay at headquarters of King Peter of Yugoslavia. The formation of a new Allied commando force, the Adriatic Land Force, is suggestive, and so also is the marked attention paid by bombers to targets in South France in the last few days.