The New Zealand Herald AUCKLAND, MONDAY, JANUARY 17, 1944

New Zealand Herald, Volume 81, Issue 24793, 17 January 1944, Page 2

The New Zealand Herald AUCKLAND, MONDAY, JANUARY 17, 1944

AMERICAN POLITICS Good authorities such as Lord Halifax and Mr. Wendell Willkie have warned outsiders to stand clear of the American political arena. The advice is sound, but it should not and does not bar the spectators from taking the closest interest in the contest. The fact is the whole world is affected by the policies adopted in Washington. The worldwide influence exerted by America could no longer be denied after 1929 and its sequels, and it has since become paramount. So the development 'of American politics in this general election year is attracting universal attention. The electors will be required to choose a President, a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate, to say nothing of State and local elections. Their choice is primarily their own concern, but it will also be momentous for all other nations. None can predict the outcome of polls so far ahead as November 7. Too much can happen in the interim. It is possible, however, to observe the political trend. A few days ago it was noted that the Democrats, Mr. Roosevelt's party, had lost their majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 1931. This isolated fact is accidental, but became possible through the large gains made by the Republican opposition in the election of . 1942. Indeed the swing of the political pendulum manifested then has become more marked since, as observed in the results of several important State elections.

The question is whether these results in "off-year" polling can be taken as a fair criterion. The Democrats assert that the outcome will be very different with Mr. "Roosevelt heading their party ticket. They assume that the President will accept nomination for a fourth term and, indeed, they have no other effective candidate to put up. The question is whether Mr. Roosevelt can stave off a Democrat defeat. In this election year America finds herself deeply involved in total war and in Mr. Roosevelt she sees the man who gives her leadership and inspiration. There will be a natural reluctance to change at a time of high crisis. Americans will also be aware of the immense prestige their President has won in every foreign country. They have come to appreciate, moreover, the soundness of the policy he has for long pursued in world affairs. His fitness as a guide in the international field now, and in the post-war settlements, has been proved by the fiercest tests. On the other hand, the President's weakness in the field of domestic administration will also tell heavily on November 7. If the Republicans can produce a firm appearance of common agreement on foreign policy and concentrate attention on shortcomings on the home front, they will seriously embarrass the Democrat defence. But Mr. Roosevelt is a consummate politician. He is seeking to erase the memory of the Democrats as the party of the New Deal. Now he presents them as the Win the War party. In personnel and policy he is moving from Left to Right, a switch that is regarded with suspicion by organised labour and has not yet disclosed fresh bodies of support for the President.

Most American commentators seem agreed that Mr. Roosevelt can expect a strong electoral backing from the 10,000.000 servicemen. The President himself does not seem unmindful of the possibility. His new party slogan, Win the War, should appeal to them intimately and personally, and his declarations on rehabilitation have been equally appealing. Oongress has shown itself restive and critical of this aspect of official policy, dubbing it as advance electioneering. As recorded in the news this morning, Congress has for a second time blocked proposals for a uniform Federal ballot for the armed forces. Constitutionally the right of defining electoral conditions is reserved to the States, and, for a variety of reasons, many of them are extremely jealous of their prerogative. If Congress insists on preserving it, and it is left to the 48 States to impose their different franchises, the difficulty of polling millions of servicemen in foreign fields will be so great that anything like a full ballot may prove impracticable. The political consequences might prove profound. Another important element in the American political scene is the relation between the President and Congress.

Taxation, prices and food subsidies, the wage structure, and manpower are all closely related and call for the application of a comprehensive and cohesive policy. So far the President and Congress have failed to agree; but unless Congress imposes the taxation and enforces the stabilisation requested by the President, America's colossal economy may well be in jeopardy. Much will depend in November on how the electors award thp blame for present indeterminate conditions and their unequal incidence. BOMBING OF SOFIA The systematic bombing of Sofia has been accompanied by a grim warning to the Bulgarians that more of the same thing may he expected in the future. As long ago as last September an expert said that possession of airfields south of Pome, especially at Naples and Foggia, put the whole of the Balkans in pawn. It would occupy some time, before full advantage could be taken of the new opportunities but, it was pointed out, all the Danubian capitals as well as the Ploesti oilfields in Rumania were within practicable range of heavy bombers operating from Southern Italy. Sofia has now realised some of those possibilities, accompanied by the announcement that the Allied heavy bombers had moved their bases from North Africa to Ttaly. The airline distance from Foggia to Sofia is a little over 400 miles. Ploesti is 575 miles away and Bucharest approximately the same distance. Salonika is only 395 miles from Foggia, Nish Is 350 miles and Belgrade a little more. The recital of these names creates a picture

of Balkan communication centres being pounded by heavy bombers radiating from Naples and Foggia. The Strategic Bomber Force which has been" operating from North Africa includes Flying Fortresses, Mitchells and Marauders, as well as Wellingtons for night operations. To most of these machines the distances quoted arc no obstacle. On these facts the future must seem bleak to the Axis satellites, which can look in vain to the over-burd-ened Luftwaffe for protection. In the early days of the assault on Italy, Pantellaria and Larnpedusa gave the first examples of defended posts succumbing to air attack alone. The Balkans may yet provide an instance of a country doing the same thing.

DIPLOMATIC TRAINING The Australian Department of Externa? Affairs has taken an important and very significant step by providing a training system for diplomatic staff cadets. It has a two-fold advantage. An opportunity to serve the Commonwealth in a more promising and stimulating field than the ordinary civil service is offered to young men and women of ability. Provision . is also being made to staff what is expected to be a rapidly-expanding service after the war. The same needs and the same possibilities exist for New Zealand. It has been thought sufficient for this country hitherto to depend upon the British diplomatic service to represent its- interests everywhere abroad. That may not be possible in the future. The Pacific has made its entry to the stage of international affairs and will remain there after the war. New Zealand's special representation at Washington may be only the beginning. It may be necessary in the future to have a Minister at Moscow —where Australia is already represented—at the seat of government of regenerated China and at other important centres where an active interest is taken in Pacific affairs. There is scarcely even the nucleus of such a staff as these developments would require. It is not too early to be thinking about providing one. A number of New Zealanders have been accepted for, and have done well in, the service of the Colonial Office. Similar abilities, if a different type of training, will be required for the diplomatic staff of the' future. If the conditions are made as attractive as they should be, openings will be created for the type of young New Zealander of promise who is too often lost to his own country when he finds an opening for his talents abroad. That will be a secondary advantage. The first necessity is to think seriously about providing for a contingency that is practically certain to arise.