CLOSE RUNNING

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23774, 30 September 1940, Page 9

CLOSE RUNNING

AUSTRALIAN ELECTION ■ 'l' - LABOUR'S PROSPECTS ME. CURTIN RETURNED [froh our own correspondent] / By Air Mail 1 SYDNEY, Sept, 20 Labour may win enough seats to upset the Government as a result of a surprise victory for the Labour leader, Mr. Curtin, in Fremantle. The Australian Imperial Force vote and the distribution of second preferences yesterday gave Mr. Curtin a majority of 522 in the final count. - Mr. Curtin has ascertained that the - Communists of, Western Australia cast ■ a block vote of GOOO against him, causing his early setback. Eight seats are still doubtful. Labour needs five to make the Government's - majority unworkable. It has an ex- - cel'.ent chance of winning four and a 50-50 chance of winning tho fifth. Tho state of tho parties if Labour won the five seats would be:—■ United Australia PartyUnited Country Party 35 Labour 36 Independent [ 3 " ,t Bare Control Issue Of the Independents, Mr. Coles '(Hentv) is expected to be a consistent Government supporter. Mr Wilson (Victorian Country Partv—Wimmern) nearly always f voted with Labour in the last Parliament. The Government might thus have to depend on the support of Mr. Mann, who seems likely to win Flinders as an Independent. Bare control of tho House seems to -- depend on which party can win Robertson, which lies between Mr. Spooncr (United Australia Party) and Mr. Williams (Official Australian Labour ■' Party). Whichever group wins Robertson—present Government parties or Labour —would have 36 members in the House to the other's 35. This would leave the balance of power with the three Independents. Appointment of a Speaker would then become a serious problem. If Labour Wins The Speaker does not have a vote in divisions, but only a casting vote. If the largest party appointed a Speaker, it could not depend on sufficient numbers to control the' House. If Labour / obtains a majoritv and tries to govern, it will face a 'hostile Senate, in which the present Govern- • ment parties have a majority of four. The existing Senate will function until June 30, 1941. ,On that date Senators new being elected will replace the .19 retiring ones. 1 The realignment of the parties as a result of Mr. Curtin's win has caused much speculation about the formation of a National Government. In Melbourne, the possibility of forming an all-party Cabinet with a Labour Prime Minister is tyeing canvassed. It is known that Mr. Menzies does T" not welcome such a scheme, but his majoritv in the House has been so reduced tnat he may have no satisfactory alternative.

The Soldiers' Votes However, in'/the absence of some form of National Government, Mr. Menzies is not likely to relinquish the Government benches unless the election figures are definitely against him. Once his Government survived the first session of Parliamefit, which will be held in October, he could govern by regulation for nearly a year without calling the House together. The-fact that Mr. Curtin got 213 out of the 310 A.I.F. votes in Fremantle is believed to indicate that the Australian /Imperial Force vote favours Labour^ There are not more than a few hundred Australian Imperial Force votes in any electorate, but in the doubtful seats they will be vital. The position in the doubtful seats will not be cleared up until primary, votes are completely counted and preferences are allotted. This is expected to begin on „ Monday.