STRANGE POLL

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23773, 28 September 1940, Page 8

STRANGE POLL

FEDERAL ELECTIONS GOVERNMENT SEEMS SAFE FAILURE OF "NEW BLOOD" [FROM OUIt OWN CORHKSrOXDKNT] SYDNEY, Sept. 20 The Federal election on Saturday lias already been dubbed t ho "marktime" election, because tlio Government apparently will go back with its majority the same, or little reduced. But, if outward signs arc similar, there have been many significant changes within the framework. The most important of these are the swing to Labour in New South Wales and the swing away from Labour in the five other States. There has not previously been so striking a division in the fortunes of one party. The Effect of Criticism Months of criticism by Sydney newspapers of the Mcnzies Government undoubtedly contributed to United Australia Party reverses in Now South Wales. This criticism was ultimately diverted into a demand for "new blood' to ginger up the Government parties, but this campaign failed dismally and reacted in a way unwanted by its sponsors —a swing to Labour. The "new blood" U.A.P. candidates fought bitterly with the established U.A.P. candidates, and nil except Mr. Spooner bit the dust. Defeats of candidates set to oust Sir Frederick Stewart in Parramatta, Mr. F. J. Harrison in Wentworth, and Mr. J. A. Perkins in Fden-Monaro, were ignominious. These seats were certainly retained by the U.A.P., but in other seats contested by the "new bloods", the campaign swung many disgusted Government supporters, not to the "ginger group" candidates, but to Labour representatives. In contrast, the Government had practically a propaganda press in the other five States. The Latest Estimates It will be a week before the exact strength of parties is known, but the most reliable estimates seem to point to the Government parties having their majority reduced from 10, to eight, or perhaps six. There are still five doubtful seats. Of the other 69, Labour has ;30, United Australia Party, 24, and Country Party, 15. In, the last House of Representatives, Labour had 32, U.A.P. 26, and Country Party 10. Of the five doubtful seats, Labour is expected to win three (or, according to a minority of observers, four), and the U.A.P. two (or one). But in most of the five doubtful seats the ultimate results will not be known until the final distributions of preferences next week. The swing to Labour in New South Wales and away from it iij the other-

States was reflected in the Senate voting. Counting will not be completed for a month, but, unless there lias been abnormal cross-voting, the results are definitely indicated. Three_ Labour Senators will be returned in New South Wales, and three Government Senators from each of the other States. It seemed almost impossible, before the election, for the Government to retain a majority in the Senate. Labour needed only two favourable States to gain control of that House. Instead, it seems that the Government will have 19, Senators to Labour's 17. That _is plainly a dangerously narrow majority for any Government to have, but at least it saves it from the embarrassment of an always hostile Upper House. The Veteran Mr. Hughes Of 75 members of the first [federal Parliament, only one member of the House of Representative offered himself as a candidate in Saturday's contestMr. W. M. Hughes. He was 76 years of age yesterday, and North Sydney electors gave him a birthday gift of one of the largest majorities in the election. Mr. Hughes has been in every Parliament .since Federation, 40 years ago. Weighing about Bst., Mr. Hughes has been known in politics lor nearly a century as "The Mighty Atom. Actual!v, he has been a member of Parliament for 46 years, without a break. He -was elected to the New South Wales Parliament as ML.A. in 1891, just 10 years after he arrived in Australia from Wales- His elevation to Parliament was the reward of the sizzling volubility lie employed in his organisation of tho waterside workers, who called him the "Diminutive Demosthenes." Mr. Hughes left State polities for tho wider Federal sphere without hesitation, and he was included by Mr. -lames Watson, first Labour Prime Minister, in the Labour Cabinet three years later. Mr. Andrew Fisher, who followed Mr. Watson as Labour leader, made him Attorney-General after his victory in 1908, and lie succeeded Mr. Fisher as Prime Minister when his leader became High Commissioner for Australia in 1915. Dominated the Ministry

When the conscription issue split Labour shortly afterwards, Mr. Hughes dominated his Ministry and made himself the most powerful figure Australian politics has ever known. He reigned as Prime Minister for seven years, three months and 13 days—longer than the late Mr. J. A. Lyons by 12 days. In 1920 ho received an address and £25,000 from English and Australian well-wishers. To-day, Mr. Hughes' fire and wit are undinimed by 46 years of continuous Parliamentary strain. He remains supreme at saying to-day what other politicians will think of to-morrow, and at turning a phrase- As examples, no one utteri-d better phrases in the recent election campaign than his descriptions of Labour's factional voices as the "twittering of sparrows in the gale" and of Labour's proposed National War Council as tho "fifth wheel of the coach." ■' v