WHERE ARE WE GOING?

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXVI, Issue 23275, 18 February 1939, Page 11 (Supplement)

WHERE ARE WE GOING?

JVTEVER before in the history of man has; the question, "Where are we " going?" been so widespread and so often asked. Gone is that feeling of permanence which gave our fathers tranquillity to go about their "lawful occasions." The group of distinguished economists who have given the substance of their Halley Stewart lectures in "The World's Economic Future" have attempted to answer the question. They have succeeded—brilliantly—in showing us where we 5, are to-day and how and ;why we have got there ; but they modestly disclaim any of the attributes of the prophet. "All that one can do," writes Professor Condliffe, "isyto draw attention to significant trends of development in the recent past which seem likely to project themselves into the future." And this is a task of supreme importance. The writers have not, indeed, mapped out the road that mankind will build for itself, but they have given us a very adequate survey of the lie of the land, and a description of the tools that are ours to use. Whether S v.'e will build our road broad and smooth, avoiding the crags which demand narrow tracks and impossible grades, and in building discard old, outworn machinery, is for ourselves to decide. - Large Scale Production Economic life, as Mr. loveday points out, is characterised by a greater measure of insecurity than was previously the case. The greater dependence on large scale production has rendered economic structure less adaptable" to changes in demand, while fit the same time demand itself has . become less stable, duo to the greater relative importance of "luxury" goods in the average person's total demand. A person can readily forgo the purchase of "luxury" goods, whereas basic necessities like food and clothing must be purchased if life is to continue at all. Moreover, many luxury goods, such as motor-cars, are of a more permanent type, c.nd therefore purchase of new goods can be postponed without serious loss of satisfaction by the individual — the old motor-car Can be made to last another year. Consequently, a loss of confidence in the future will result in Diore serious di&location in industry than was the case when such luxury goods occupied a less important place hi total demand. Sudden "over production" appears in particular fields, with consequent unemployment. This increased "buinpiness" in economic life has led to action «v the State in an effort to relieve the distress of the individual through unemployment relief systems. Through such action the Stato has become extremely conscious l of the risks of fluctuations, and so makes attempts to "nproriss methods of modifying the fluctuations themselves. Guaranteed Prices The first result of this attitude is an Accentuation of nationalism—countries attempt to cut themselves off from economic disasters occurring in other : lands. This tendency is evident in Now Zealand. Guaranteed prices for exports ?im at eliminating the effects of chang- . 3 . n S overseas prices upon the farming it tries, and wo are told that in the event of a slump overseas New Zealand's economy can be "insulated" 'Against it. *j all the contributors to "The - World's Economic Future" are insist- i ' that nationalism can never be a

solution of economic disorder anywhere. Mr. Loveday holds that nationalism is only a passing phase, and that it will be followed by international co-opera-tion. "As governments become more and more conscious of their collective risks ji . . they will want to plau ahead. ' They will want to elaborate joint schemes to stimulate demand; they will want to synchronise their policies. "International co-operation must increase—not because one group of statesmen or another desires it—but simply because it is indispensable—because the risks in the stage of economic development that we have reached cannot be averted save by international consultation atad concerted action." Unity Essential In a brilliant chapter, Senor Madariaga also stresses the essential unity in the field of human relationships, both national and international. "The most elementary study of economic

facts," he writes, "leads nowadays to the conclusion that one, and only one, life runs through all tho limbs, organs, tissues, classes, nations, races of mankind. Definite separation, sharp, cut-and-dried frontiers are unthinkable. Those who think them as existing are the victims of intellectual delusions . . . Men and nations must realise inwardly —not merely think and agree—hut digest and live—the unity of all this vast body politic which is mankind. No definite "political organisation need be associated with this vision; time and space will model such details. No uniform conception of the forms of collective life can be extended to the whole planet without grotesque inadequacies and tragic failures. But the mental unity of it all, the fact that there is only one life, must be realised everywhere, at any rate by the leaders."

Senor Madariaga's warning is timely, for the specialisation which is so marked a feature of modern scientific work in all fields tends to make men forget the essential unity in things. Yet the true scientist, specialist though he be, never does for long forget that his little section of the world of things is only a section. He must (and does> seek to fit his work into the common heritage of human thought and material achievement. \ ■

By H. R. RODWELL

But to an increasing extent this task must be deliberate. The widening of knowledge and its increasing complexity make the specialist still more a specialist—it is increasingly difficult to grasp the wider significance of results in particular fields. But the future of mankind depends "ipon this aspect being fully realised—tie great discoveries which to-day follow each other "as thick as the falling leaves" must serve and not destroy human society. Central Control

Technical and economic forces have resulted "in the growth of central organisation and control" by both private cartels and governments, and in a vast increase in the capacity of industry to increase output in shorter working time. There are many who long for a return to the "optimistic individualism" of the nineteenth century, but, on the other hand, there are more people to-day who have "come to believe in the wisdom of governments."

Professor Ohlin explains why the loose system of a hundred years ago will not work to-day, but he does not go all the way with those who believe that the State should organise and control all economic activity. He fears the stagnating influence of bureaucratic domination and regards as the right system one which "combines flexibility with the possibility of centralised direction in certain special respects."

There is some difference of opinion between Professors Ohlin and Heckscher as to tho extent to which such new factors as electric power and motor transport will modify tho tendency for the modern business to grow in size, but there can be little doubt that the giant concern has come to stay. But whether there is any modification or not, the mechanical ago in which we live will become more mechanical, and this, as Professor Condliffe points out, "will free an increasing number of individuals from the pressure of poverty and obsession with material needs." It will also mean more leisure.

Our attention is called, too, to another fact, often disregarded—the tendency (particularly marked among the white races) for populations to become static. This factor will have profound effects, not only upon the nature of demand,

but also upon the geographical distribution of production. These are some of the trends which, in the judgment of the contributors to this notable analysis of our times, wi{l set the pattern for the future. How will they react upon the individual? It is man himself that is important; economic organisation must serve him. not he it. The men and women of the future will enjoy an abundance of /material things, freedom from economic responsibility through the centralising of industrial control, greater leisure and freedom from the fear of distress, even if unemployment should occur. Surely this is the beginning of a new "golden age.". Patterns for Future Yet Professor Condliffe is not quite sure. "Whether they will use their freedom to cultivate the things of the spirit is primarily a problem of social education, perhaps the greatest problem with which our age is confronted." It is profoundly to be hoped that the men

and women of the future will not bb content with "bread and circuses."

The story unfolded is one of a changing world, and, as Senor Madariaga warns us, the enemy is dogma. Liberalism, Communism, Fascism, religion, internationalism, all have contributions to make to the framework of thought that will direct the future, but the dry husks of these faiths must be abandoned —only the fruitful elements will-contribute to the future good. No Easy Task The essence of the set of ideas developed in this way, which should be the background of all constructive thought and action, he gives in these words: "Freedom without anarchy, sense of community without collective tyranny, national service without national idolatry, the civil substance of all religious faiths and a concrete and constructive conception of world affairs —such are the conditions which our mental setting must fulfil." Is this an ideal too rich and strong for man's aspiring? It is no easy task, and yet wo must attempt it, and succeed, if the world is to be made safe—for man. "Tho World's Economic Future": Tho Halloy Stewart Lectures, 1037. (Allen and Unwin.)