SINEWS OF WAR

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXV, Issue 23206, 28 November 1938, Page 8

SINEWS OF WAR

GIBITANY'S EESOTJECES / . SUPPLIES OF RAW MATERIALS LARGE RESERVES IN STORE ESTIMATE BY EXPERT [from our oto correspondent] LONDON, Not. 1 Germany's capacity for waging war flcpends next to the supply of military equipment, upon the storage of raw materials which in peace-time must be imported and in war-time might nob be obtainable, says the Manchester Guardian. An expert correspondent makes an estimate of the quantities of raw materials which tho German authorities appear to have put by for an emergency. Ho concludes that in the event of war present stocks would make Germany independent of foreign supplies of most important commodities for at least one year. Germany imports and consumption of raw materials, writes tho correspondent, have been strictly controlled since early in 1934. The use; of many commodities in civilian industries has been either prohibited or severely restricted. At the same time the domestic resources of grown and mined commodities have been inoro widoly developed, especially since the introduction of the four-year plan, and industry was compelled to make use of the newlydeveloped substitute and synthetic products. All this should have allowed Germany .to reduce imports from abroad considerably, and that was indeed the reason publicly advanced for the restrictive measures. Increase of Imports Actually German imports of nearly nil raw materials have been continuously increased since 1933. The various international commodity statistics set imports (plus domestic output) equal to consumption, disregarding tho question of storage. A close study of German requirements both for internal! use and for export suggests that in every year since 1933 much more has been imported than could possibly have been used. If consumption is estimated at the highest possible rate, allowing for the present full employment of industry, nnd set off against total supplies (imports plus internal production) between ][933 and 1937, it is possible to venture a rough guess that at the end of last year Germany had accumulated reserves which, in the case of base metals, would cover current requirements for more than ohe year, and in siteel alloys for over 1§ months. Iron ore must have been in hand for some 15 months' needs, and rubber for a year. Oil reserves were smaller, and so were stocks of textile materials, especially cotton; but in these commodities synthetic production is well advanced. Building up Reserves These reserves seem to have been regarded as insufficient. During the current year Germany has again imported more than last year, although internal consumption was further restricted by more stringent regulations. The following table shows Germany's retained imports of the most important commodities: — ,

I: Few comments are needed to explain these figures. In comparing imports cf industrial raw materials during the two periods it should be remembered that last year's purchases were already .very much greater than those of a year earlier. The smaller imports of wheat and rye are due to better harvests, vrhile the reduction of rubber purchases iij- the result of increasing domestic supplies of synthetic rubber, which are scheduled to reach 20,000 tons a year in 1939.

Altogether the country's reserve stocks must have been considerably increased since the end of last year, and iit would seem to be a cautious estimate to say that in the event of a war the Reich would bo well supplied with most raiv materials for at least one sear.

(In metric tons) ■ , Seven months 1633 11937 Wheat 674,979 824,906 Bye • • • • • • 32,335 141,027 Barley i .. .. 252,715 143.533 Coffee . ... 110,413 103,859 Tea .. .. .. 2,736 2,890 Wool . i .. 119,243 82,557 Cotton 208,273 1131,396 irextile waste . .. 33,466 31,612 Pig Iron *80,163 +12.008 Iron ore' .. .. 12,500,342 11,120,051 Manganese ore 295,111 280,635 Copper .. .. 180,891 147,408 Copper ore .. .. 880,901 312,749 Lead .. .. 28,211 150,580 Lead ore .. .. 81,219 <17,482 Zinc .. .. m 3,358' 5,346 Jiinc Orb 91,811 42,684 Tin 6,718 5,973 Other base metals .. 5,180 2,147 Chrome ore 78,948 69,945 Ulckel ore .. 16,658 111,280 Other oreg 57,642 . 47,638 Bauxite 609,122 5SI4.4S0 Crude oil and tar .. 703,721 619,448 3'etrol and lubricating oil 1,1308,588 1,622,878 Technical oils and fats 110,450 02,881 Itlibber 67,358 72,787 •Net imports. tNet exports. Progressive Expansion