THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1938 HUMAN FACTS

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXV, Issue 22968, 21 February 1938, Page 10

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 1938 HUMAN FACTS

Population returns for last year can be considered favourable only by comparison with the depressing figures issued for several previous years. The estimated increase of Europeans was 14,871, compared with 12,753 in 1936, 8916 in 1935 and 8981 in 1934. If the figures for the last two years could be read as marking a turn in the tide, there would be cause for encouragement. Unfortunately population trends have to be taken over longer periods. Last year's growth of 14,871, for instance, appears puny when compared with the increase of 28,767 in 1926. Such improvement as was recorded, moreover, may not be maintained because the birth rate last year would undoubtedly be raised by the abnormally high marriage rate in the previous year. There were 13,740 marriages in 1936, the highest number ever recorded. In 1935 also marriages were unusually numerous, the figures in both years offering an index of economic recovery. One result was the slightly higher birth rate in 1936, a feature of the vital statistics that is expected to reappear in last year's figures when the rate is determined. The question is whether the gain will be held when the number of new marriages retjirns to a more normal figure. Even if the future gives a favourable answer, the birth rate is still not high enough to maintain New Zealand's population by natural means, putting aside all hope of healthy increase. Working on the results of the last census and combining these with the 1936 records, the Official Year Book comes to the melancholy conclusion that the present rate of reproduction in New Zealand is not sufficient to maintain the population at its present level. A bleak outlook therefore faces the Dominion unless the birth rate rises to human replacement rate at least, or above it if progress is to continue. Otherwise stagnation or recession cannot be avoided if natural increase is relied on and no steps are taken to promote an inflow of population from outside. The best immigrants, of course, are the native-born, but there are not nearly enough of these. Even if the ominous decline that has continued for over two generations were healthily reversed —and there is as yet no substantial indication of such improvement—progress would still be slow. New Zealand is over-capitalised materially but under - capitalised humanly. More human capital requires to be imported to use present resources and equipment, to bring the national economy into better balance and to build a stronger social and cultural structure. In the department of migration, however, the figures are again found to be discouraging. A total of 10,898 more people have left the country permanently in the last seven years

than have entered it. In two of those years the excess of departures numbered over 3000. In 1936 the net loss fell to 869 and again last year

to 111. Still there is no net gain, nor is there likely to be any material gain without direction and assistance. In any cape it is questionable whether chance gains are desirable and certain that they would not prove adequate to the need of a country whose natural increase is insufficient to maintain the population, What is wanted immediately is a well thought out scheme of immigration made to fit in with the higher development of the national economy, especially industrially. Otherwise New Zealand must settle down to a maintenance job, be content with present small things, struggle to carry on a comparatively few shoulders her towering debt structure, and try to defend a dog-in-the-manger policy against the teeming millions of the have-not nations, envious of a rich and only partially developed land. These conclusions, unpalatable though they ax-e, do not tell the whole story. Unless New Zealand is willing to change, not only is she faced with a stationary population, but also with one that is steadily ageing—fewer children and young people, more elderly and old folks. The 1936 census shows that the devitalising process is already far advanced. In ten years children under five years of age have actually decreased by 17,693, and those over 60 increased by 50,304. These changes influence social economy in many ways, because the needs of elderly people differ from those of children. Looked at in another way, the census showed 133,539 in the group aged 20-24 years, but that in

1956 there will be over 20,000 fewer in this group available for employment. The most active elements in the working population, the best type as defenders, those to whom young and old must look for sustenance and security—these will be present in smaller ratio. Not much thought is required to show what the effect must be on standards of

living. As the Year Book remarks, a recovery of the birth rate would eventually ro-establish ratios, but could not affect the position with regard to persons already in existence. That position is "definite and irremediable," if natural increase alone be relied on. Immigration is the one factor that can alter it, the immigration of the young and vigorous. From whatever angle New Zealand problems are considered to-day, rural or urban, social, economic or defensive, the student is brought back to that. Population in the end will determine all policies, the composition as well as the numbers of the population, and any Government that ignores this core of policy must be prepared to see its plans deranged and its aspirations defeated by human facts.