THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS TUESDAY, MAY 4, 1937 SCHOOLS AND BIRTH-RATE

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXIV, Issue 22719, 4 May 1937, Page 10

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS TUESDAY, MAY 4, 1937 SCHOOLS AND BIRTH-RATE

A very direct consequence of the falling birth-rate in New Zealand, one which will certainly show itself elsewhere, was discussed by the Southland Education Board when it considered reduced roll numbers in its district. The average attendance in 1933, when five-year-old children were excluded from the infant classes, was 10,360 ; in 1936, after they had been readmitted, it was 10,312. Figures for five years indicate an undoubted decline. The actual numbers, regarded without any qualifying circumstances, are what the expert would doubtless call crude statistics. The members of the board asked whether increased patronage of private schools had had any influence on the rolls, the answer being that, if it had, the effect was not sufficient to account for the whole decline'. There is another possibility, a geographical drift of population. A commission is about to consider a gain in the North Island at the expense of the South as affecting Parliamentary representation. So far as this is the result of an actual transfer of population, the loss is most likely to have been in young and vigorous stock, present or potential parents of young children. But, whatever allowance is necessary for these circumstances, there is no escaping the established fact that the birthrate has fallen disastrously. The effect on the schools could no more be avoided here than in any other country where the natural reproduction of the population is on the down-grade. A member of the Southland board said the decline in school rolls was a problem throughout the British Empire, and that is an undoubted fact.

In a recent article on the declini of the British race throughout th< world, Dr. G. F. McCleary, formerly an officer of the British Ministry o Health, wrote: " The problem w< have to face here and now is no how to secure a stationary, optimun population, but how to prevent ai imminent decrease in populatioi that will, if not prevented, beconu catastrophic within the next thirty years. And we must bear in mine that this country has for many year: been an important source of popula tion for the Dominions, where incredible as it may seem, th< fertility of the British stock ha: fallen as rapidly as in the Mothei Country." Applying his statemeni of actual and inevitable futun failure of the race in the Unitec Kingdom to reproduce itself, Dr McCleary pointed out that thf number of children attending public elementary schools had fallen frorc 6,082,858 in 1910 to 5,402,052 in 1935 and this in spite of legislation ir 1918 which added 367,000 children over 13 to the rolls by abolishing half-time attendance and exemptions under the age of 14. One of the results was a diminution in the need for school places, school books and other educational requisites. He was not able to give similar figures for the Dominions, which he had shown to be suffering a similar decline in births, but it does not need to be argued that identical effects will be created in them all. That it is so in New Zealand is shown by the following table giving the number of pupils at elementary public and registered private schools: — Public Private Total 1928 . . 219,950 .26,596 246,546 1929 . . 219,166 26,977 246,143 1930 . . 219,235 26,451 245,686 1931 . . 218,689 26,726 245,415 1932 . . 207,489 26,410 233,899 1933 . . 200,819 26,428 227,247 1934 . . 199,913 26,636 226,549 1935 . . 197,526 26,869 224,395 A steady fall in the total is visible, quite apart from the effect produced when the five-year-old children were excluded. The trend is the same in New Zealand as in Great Britain; and it is ominous. It is no use leaning on the comfortable but specious argument that in the replacement of population the keynote of the present is quality rather than quantity. Even if the claim could be allowed with-

out argument—as a good deal of evidence shows it cannot be—it would not be enough. In countries where conscription rules they realise ' quickly enough, as class after class of recruits comes forward for registration and training, that quantity counts, and counts powerfully. In British lands, where there is no conscription, there i's not the same regular check on the ultimate consequences of a falling birth-rate. That is not an excuse for being blind to what it portends. To put it on the most materialistic basis, a few years after the school rolls have issued their warning, there will be fewer recruits to the army of wealthproducers. There will be fewer to pay the taxes which support the social services -on which the aged and ageing have come to depend. The economically effective will have a larger share of such burdens as the public debt to carry, as their seniors gradually join the ranks of the ineffective. That situation may have social consequences it is not pleasant to foresee. Mental and spiritual ♦changes will be inevitable. A people once eager and forward-looking will be forced to turn its eyes backward to the glories of a lost past. Many who do not consider themselves old can recall the time when it was never doubted that the destiny of the British race was to wax 3ver greater, that its leadership would grow stronger as the years passed. Such a tone is no longer heard so confidently—and with good reason, in view of the facts just considered. It is no exaggeration, it is not just pessimism, to draw these conclusions from the evidence of shrinking school rolls. It is simply facing facts indicated by birth statistics and 1 confirmed by the evidence of the i school population. j