SMALL EXPANSION

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXIII, Issue 22344, 15 February 1936, Page 14

SMALL EXPANSION

POPULATION TRENDS UNFAVOURABLE FACTORS LOSS ON MIGRATION THE FALLING BIRTH-RATE The statistics published yesterday, showing that the estimated European population of New Zealand had increased by 9350 in 1935, indicate that the disquieting trend of recent years continues. The increase of 9-129 in the year 193-1 was the lowest numerically since 1891, and on a percentage basis the lowest ever recorded. The 1935 figure shows a further drop in both respects, the percentage increases being .6-1 and .63. The following table, covering the past 10 years, shows the trend very clearly: Increase Population Numerical per cent 1926 .. 1,365,417 29.054 2.17 1927 .. 1,385,401 19.984 1.4K 1928 .. 1.401,472 16.071 1.16 1929 1,418,914 17,442 1.24 19.'!0 .. 1,438,239 19.325 1.36 1931 .. 1,452.747 14.508 1.01 1932 .. 1.463.030 10,283 0.71 1933 .. 1.473,480 10,450 0.71 1934 .. 1,482.909 9.429 0.64 1935 . . 1,492,286 9.350 0.63 Trend Since "Gold Rush"

The annual percentage increase in Now Zealand's population was greatest in the "gold rush" period of the earlv 'sixties, when it reached 20.54. By 1874 it had declined to 5.32, but Sir Julius Vogel's immigration policy sent it up. to 8.43 in IS7B. Economic depression caused emigrants to exceed immigrants in 1888, 1890 and 1891, and the average total increase over those years was 1.6) per cent. The figure varied between 1.57 and 2.79 per cent, in the period from 1891 to 1926.

Tho rate of natural increase, in which a declining birth-rate has not been balanced by a declining death-rate, showed a marked fall after 1876-80, when it was 2.94 per cent. In 1891-95 it stood at 1.75. A further drop began in 1916-20, partly due to the war and the influenza pandemic, but the rate did not recover, and fell from 1.008 in 1931 to .799 in 1934. The fall in the birth-rate is common knowledge. In 1878 it reached 4.2 per cent, but from that year it rapidly declined to 2.5 in 1899. In the next 10 years it rose to 2.75, but since then, apart from a temporary drop and recovery between 1917 and 1920, the figures have continued their downward course. In 1921 the rate was 23.34 per cent; in 1933, 16.59, and in 1934, 16.47.

Increases Over the Years Percentage figures of external migration are not obtainable, but typical returns of population increases are given in the following table, the earlier part of which deals with fiveyearly periods:— \ Natural Migration Increase Increase Total 18C1-G5 .. 16,610 93,109 109,779 1871-75 .. 40.538 81,946 122.484 1881-85 .. 67.408 28.939 96.637 1886-90 .. 64,325 8,702* 55.623 1891-95 .. 57.885 15.320 73.205 1901-05 .. 68.738 45.446 114.184 1906-10 .. 81,748 40.966 122.714 1911-15 .. 89,005 35.511 124.506 1916-20 .. 76.607 „ 14,854 91.461 1921-25 .. 56.744 49,948 130.732 1920-30 .. 77.342 24,627 101.909 1931 .. .. 14.757 07* 14.508 1932 .. .. 13.201 2,918* 10.283 1933 .. .. 12.033 2.iai* » 10.450 1934 .. .. 11.795 2.300* 9.429 1935 (9 nios.) 8.053 3.905 * 4.088 * Decrease. The increase of only 4688 for the first nine months ofdast year, as compared with 9350 for the whole year, appears to be due to the fact that arrivals usually exceed departures in the spring and early summer, namely, from September to January inclusive. In discussing the trend of population, the latest Official Year Book points out that further considerable falls in New Zealand's very low deathrate can scarcely be expected; in fact, with the less favourable age-constitu-tion of the population, a rise may possibly occur. The rate, in fact, from .798 per cent in 1933 to .848 in 1934. On the other hand, tho further fall in the birth-rate over the past four years was partly, even mainly, due to the economic depression, and may be regarded as temporary. However, the depression merely intensified a long-persisting decline. Although the natural increase rate of .799 per cent may seem to leave a substantial margin, it is estimated on "expectation-of-life" figures calculated in 1931 that 1.5 per cent is needed to maintain even a stationary population.