POPULATION TREND

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXII, Issue 22191, 19 August 1935, Page 11

POPULATION TREND

"MOMENTOUS STAGE" POSSIBILITY OF DECLINE LOWEST RATE OF INCREASE "The stage now reached in the movement of population is undoubtedly the most momentous in the history of New Zealand," states the report for the year 1934-35 issued by the Census and Statistics Office. "The note of unbroken growth so long maintained has been accepted as a matter of course, and the possibility of a stationary population—even of a declining one—within the immediate future will undoubtedly present a' serious shock to those who have not kept in touch with trends of population." These statements are provoked by the fact that the increase in population for the year ended March 31 was 10,715, equal to .69 per cent of the population at the beginning of the year. Exclusive of Maoris, the increase was .61 per cent. "These rates of increase are the lowest ever recorded," states the report, "and the numerical increases are the lowest since 1890-91." Margin Precariously Low The natural increase ratio was 7.99 per 1000, the lowest point yet reached in a long period of decline. Based on expectation of life figures calculated for 1931, an "equilibrium" birth-rate of over 15 per 1000 of mean population was required to maintain even a stationary population, and should the death-rate increase, a higher birth-rate would bo necessary. The margin of increase was precariously low and would vanish in a few years if the present trend continued. "The erstwhile favourable ratio of natural increase in New Zealand was due to its exceptionally low deathrate," it is stated, "now and for very many years the lowest in the world. It is out of the question to expect further considerable falls in the deathrate; in fact, with the less favourable age-constitution of the population as now developing, a potential rise must bo envisaged.

"That tho decline in the birth-rate over the last four years is partly, even mainly, due to conditions caused by the depression and, therefore, it may bo assumed, temporary in nature, seems clear. It is equally clear, however, that depression conditions merely intensified a long-persisting decline. This decline is not peculiar to New Zealand, but is almost tho universal experience, nor does it appear to have yet been successfully arrested by remedial measures attempted in a number of countries." Loss By Migration Apart from natural increase, the other source of population increase in New Zealand has been migration, which since 1875 has accounted for 27 per cent of the gain in numbers. The net migration figures, exclusive of Maoris, recorded a loss of population of 2983 for the year ended March 31. Only one assisted immigrant arrived during the year. The increase in population from all sources in the North Island was 7504, and in tho South Island 1516. A table giving the percentage increases in the two islands for the past five years shows that while in tho North the figure has declined only from 1.67 per cent to .92, that for tho South has decreased from 1.19 to .29. The rates of increase in the Maori population are much higher than those for Europeans. For the year ended December 31, 1934, the number of Maoris increased by 1668, or 2.30 per cent, compared with 2.53, 2.22, 1.91 and 1.80 in tho preceding four years.