POPULATION AND DEBT

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXXII, Issue 22144, 25 June 1935, Page 8

POPULATION AND DEBT

Various consequences to be expected from a 'static or falling population were discussed by Dr. E. P. Neale in his address to the Economic Society last night. As he said, in the absence of a recent census, figures and estimates are necessarily approximate, and may easily be wide of the mark by a good deal. However. certain facts, the cessation of gain by migration, the phenomenally low birth-rate, and, as a result, a sharply reduced rate of natural increase, are definitely established. Therefore, though the lack of census figures may prevent precise mathematical calculations, they are not needed to support a number of conclusions from the present outlook. One of the most important was mentioned by Dr. Xeale when he remarked that New Zealand would not be able, nor should need, to construct public works on an elaborate scale "in the hope that a heavy burden of debt bequeathed to future generations would be eased on a per capita basis by reason of everexpanding population." The public debt increased in the past decade and a-half far more than in ratio to the population. In 1920 the gross debt was £201,170,750 or £162 12s 9d per head of the population ; at March 31, 1935s the approximate figures were £282,623,000 and £153 17s Bd. An even more marked increase is shown in Australia, where population movements resemble those of this country. In 1920 the gross debt of Commonwealth and States was £778,342,000 or £145 4s per head; at March 31, 1935, the figures were £1,233,731,000 and £lB3 0s lid. Fifteen years ago, the Australian gross debt position, on a per capita basis, compared more than favourably with that of New Zealand. Now it is almost the same. The moral for both countries is identical. In the past debt has been incurred on the general assumption that a future of uninterrupted progress would make the burden seem light. The same easy confidence cannot now be felt. The static state of the population must be kept continuously in mind a f 3 a warning that debts cannot safely be multiplied as they have been in the immediate past.