THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS TUESDAY, JANUARY 31, 1933 MR. DE VALERA'S VICTORY

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXX, Issue 21404, 31 January 1933, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS TUESDAY, JANUARY 31, 1933 MR. DE VALERA'S VICTORY

The final returns of the Irish Free State elections reveal an interesting position. Mr. de Valera's Government is able to resume office with a majority of 16 —12 more, that is, than it could muster in the last Dail —taking the alignment of parties then followed. "I asked for a clear majority," he says, "and have got it." But this is to include among his followers those representing organised Labour. He has 77 pledged unreservedly to support, him hi a House of 153; but one of his party is the Speaker of the outgoing Dail, who was returned unopposed, presumably with the expectation, shared by the Opposition, that he would be Speaker again. As the Speaker exercises only a casting vote, this presumption leaves the voting strength of the party at 76 except for the Speaker's aid in an emergency. As the votes on the floor of the House number 152, the Government has behind it a solid party of only half the number there, the other 76 being made up of Mr. C'osgrave's party (48), Centre Party (11), Independents (8), Labour (8), Independent Labour (1). This is not exactly a comfortable position for the Government. To retain office it must depend on the support of some i outside its own party, for reliance on the shelter of the Speaker's vote would reduce parliamentary practice to a farce. It is apparent that Mr. de Valera reckons the official Labour 8 among his followers, their transfer from the potential Opposition giving him his working majority of 16; but it is equally apparent that this support is as contingent on a policy bargain as was that on which he similarly depended in the last Dail. This gives importance to the public statement of policy made at the opening of this election campaign by the leader of the Labour Party. It differed little from the attitude taken before the election. Readiness to part with the oath of allegiance as "a bad and useless relic of feudalism" was linked with a wish for an honourable settlement with the United Kingdom and with an assertion that Labour's economic policy was at least as advanced as that of Mr. de Valera.

For its hope of carrying out its programme of an independent, republican Ireland, therefore, the Government is in scarcely any better position than it was. In spite of a gain of 6 in its own party and a loss of 9 sustained by Mr. Cosgrave's, it will have to consider Labour at every point, and Labour's restiveness it was that virtually ..compelled Mr. de Valera to go to the country. Against the losses suffered by the Opposition and among the Independents, a total of 18 losses, raised to a Government advantage of 19 by official Labour's gain of one, must be put the emergence of a Centre Party winning 11 seats, this party being created by the Farmers' and Ratepayers' League formed to oppose the Government, and the election of one Independent Labour member. Analysis of the returns discloses the really precarious position of the Government, and justifies the opinion of the Irish Times that Mr. de Valera will still be in bondage to the Labour Party, which will exact heavy toll for its favours even if it does nothing to check his republican aspirations. The mandate now claimed by the Government is largely fictitious. It nominated 100 candidates, by far the largest group in the field, in the hope of obtaining a clear majority over all other parties, and nearly a fourth of these were defeated. Mr. de Valera's acknowledgment that he could not expect a greater success under proportional representation is, in effect, an admission that his extreme policy did not command decisive approval, and this confession is strengthened by his avowal that the vote in his support will grow. He expresses himself as quite satisfied, but obviously he is not elated.

Interest now centres on his efforts to achieve his ends by legislation in a Parliament largely hostile. He is silent regarding his precise plans, and a subdued tone marks his references to detailed policy. The more responsible section of the community is said to believe that he will be cautious, treating the idea of a republic as subservient to other interests. This is confirmed by the new note of moderation in his language concerning Britain and his description of the Ireland of his hopes as only "reasonably" selfsupporting. He turns with evident relief from the earlier slogans of defiance to announcements of desired reform of the Senate and reduction of the Dail, and then to suggestions—no more than suggestions—of ( an economic programme likely to conciliate his valued Labour friends. It would be a mistake to think that he has forsworn his extravagant scheming. His habit of avoidance of fact, coupled with an obdurate refusal to listen to reason, will probably be indulged again as soon as he is compelled by circumstances to review relations with the United Kingdom ; and he may revert to his insistence that the Irish people must be prepared to suffer much in their struggle for their country's freedom. Yet it seems the election has taught him that there are limits beyond which even he cannot safely go. He has won a victory that is scarcely distinguishable from a defeat..