THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 1932. THE IRISH ELECTIONS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIX, Issue 21114, 23 February 1932, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 1932. THE IRISH ELECTIONS.

Results of the polling in the Free State elections arc now sufficient in number to indicate that Mr. dc Valera is likely to head the strongest individual party, but he has no prospect of commanding a majority without the support of one of the smaller groups. He himself asserts that his party will produce what will be substantially a Labour policy, therefore it expects the support of the Labour Party. But, lie adds, it will adhere to its intention of abolishing the oath of allegiance. The Labour members are understood to be opposed to this. If this is actually the position the large Fianna Fail party will have to reach a compromise with the small Labour group before they can command the position. Even with the support of the independent members, including the two Labour insurgents, Mr. Cosgrave and his party arc not likely to be. able to avoid defeat. There arc changes at hand, and if recent predictions arc to be accepted, the most probable outcome is for Mr. do Valera to form a Government with Labour support. If so, the position will be interestingly similar to that in South Africa when General Hertzog and his fellow Nationalists first gained office with the support of the Labour Party. The Nationalists then had a secession plank in their platform. A condition of Labour support was that it should remain in abeyance during the currency of the pact. After the next election the Nationalists were returned in sufficient strength to be independent of Labour support, but the secession issue did not reappear in any practical form. Time, experience and perhaps office, may mellow Mr. de Valera and his associates in a similar fashion. If the possibilities of a succession to office by the Fianna Fail provoke speculation on the one side, there is also the question of the Government's fall to consider. It has been in office for nine years, and that, in times like the present, is one of the readiest reasons to give for its rejection. Recently it was described as the oldest Cabinet in Europe, and to the factors which have led to the downfall of Governments in so many other countries can be attributed, at least in part, the eclipse which this one has suffered. Discontent, bred of economic difficulties and hardship, has overthrown more administrations than have been definitely convicted of political sins, and Ireland has not escaped the rise of similar feelings. For, from having been one of the most fortunate of lands in a time of general depression, Ireland has come to feel its effects recently. England is the most important customer Ireland has, for some commodities virtually the only customer. The continued depression of industry on the other side of the channel naturally affected the return for Irish produce. In public finance the year 1930-01 ended with a deficit of just over £900,000. For the first nine months of the current year revenue showed an increase of some £109,000, while expenditure was greater by £993.000. The deficit at the time, with a good deal of taxation still to accrue, was £2,099,178, or about £BBO,OOO greater than at the same period in 1930-31. On this the Free State cannot be considered badly off by comparison with other countries, but reduced trade, coupled with higher income tax and increases in petrol and sugar duties, will no doubt have had some effect on the popularity of the Government unfortunate enough to be in power when these things occurred. On such grounds the loss in favour suffered by the Cosgrave Government must be explained. In previous elections it has been emphasised that the one positive element in the verdict has been general support for the treaty with Great Britain. On this occasion, since Fianna Fail, the anti-treaty, Republican party has, on present results, been given greatest support, the same claim cannot, be made. Mr. de Valera has not been downright this time in demanding denunciation of the treaty. Abolition of the oath of allegiance and a cessation of payments to Great Britain on account of the Land Purchase Annuities—an annual sum of £3,000,000 —were the two points in his programme most affecting relations between the two countries. London comment has already suggested that if Mr. de Valera's views were given effect, the Free State would cease to be a Dominion, its nationals living in Britain would become aliens, and preferences would be forfeited. This last consideration should suggest even to Mr. dc Valera—essentially impractical though he often appears—that the present is the worst possible time to disturb commercial relations between the two countries. Others in Ireland were quick to realise the possible benefits from preferences and quotas, and if Mr. dc Valera ignored the point he would be very speedily reminded of it. The economic conditions of the day are not kind to theorists and visionaries. When Britain went off the gold standard there was a demand from inside the Fianna Fail for an independent Irish currency, in order that that of the Free State should not be dragged down with the depreciated British pound. When, however, Denmark, engaged like Ireland in selling agricultural produce in the British market, promptly left the gold standard too, in order to avoid exchange complications, there came a sudden realisation that Ireland would be throwing away the substance to grasp a shadow by severing relations with the British banking system. The certainty that any disturbance of the existing situation between the two countries would react unfavourably on the material welfare of the Free State can be trusted to restrain Mr. de Valera from proceeding to extremes in search -of independence now that electoral fortune is flowing his way.