THE BEEF MARKET.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 20241, 29 April 1929, Page 9

THE BEEF MARKET.

RISE IN PRICES EXPECTED.:

NEW ZEALAND'S OPPORTUNITY.

INCREASE IN HERDS URGED. Between 1924 and 1928 there has been an increase of 54 per cent, in the average price of cattlo on the Toronto market. E'rices are still strong, and there is evidence that they will continue to rise for tho next three or four years. With one c-f tho largest corn crops on record, farmers of the United States find that they have between three and four million hogs less to consume it.

The above aro two of the most arresting statements in a review of investigations made by the Royal Bank of Canada, published in the monthly journal of tho British Empire Chamber of Commerce of the United States. After an intensive study of the animal industry the Royal Bank makes the assertion that there is a cyclical range in hog and cattle prices, and that under more intelligent control the feast and famine processes might bo entirely eliminated. The records and charts which it furnishes prove the truth of the theory. In any industry risug prices are a stimulus to increased production, whether on the farm or in manufactures. At a time like the present, with meat bringing almost war-time prices, there will be a general urge to raise more hogs and cattle. The bank, therefore, issues a warning of the natural result, that at some stage supply will overtake demand. Then prices will drop, and livestock.producers will rush their surplus to market, or cease adding to it. Of course, scarcity in feed may bring about different conditions, but tlie experience of tho past, amply demonstrated by production statistics, is that Iho meat industry, one of the most important of all, is either a prince or- a pauper. Forecast of Markets. Judging from this experience, the Royal Bank'makes the forecast that the advance in the price of hogs will make the farmers increase the spring and autumn pig crops of 1929, that prices will, continue high until 1930 or 1931, and' that there will then be a substantial decline. The move in cattle will naturally take much longer, for they do not multiply like pigs, nor do they reach maturity in such a short time. The bank estimates that cattle prices will continue to rise during the next three or four years. By that time a world surplus of cattle will be impending, and prices will inevitably recede. The bank, however, makes a further forecast, that the livestock industry will then have become so accustomed to rising prices that no warnings are likely to be strong enough to prevent large increases in their herds during the next two or three years, when prices will be dropping quite rapidly. Again and again these price cycles have repeated themselves, and there seem to be no new factors likely to modify substantially their general trend. The agricultural economists and marketing experts at the various agricultural colleges are thoroughly familiar with price trends of this character. If the farmers could be led to take advantage of such advice as these experts can offer, it would be possible for them to reduce their herds at the time when prices are near the top, and not to increase production again until the worst period of low prices has passed. If the information collected by the Royal Bank of Canada is correct—and it is substantially cor-firmed by the High Commissioner's cablegram to the Minister of Agriculture—the inferences drawn by the bank offer both an encouragement and a warning to New Zealand farmers, and there is no part of the Dominion where it can bo more usefully followed than in the Auckland Province. There are over half a million pigs in New Zealand, of which about half are in this province; and the good prices ruling lately may bo expected to accelerate the increased breeding of the last year or two, for there is hardly a limit to the reproduction of the pig species, except the provision of food and the necessary attention on the farm. If prices keep high for another year or two, as suggested by the Royal Bank, further encouragement will be given to increasing the herds, and this ought to be safe if our Statistical Department keeps in close touch with the position in the United States, in order to give farmers duo warning when they must take care not to overdo it. Killing of Young Calves. Cattle reproduce their species so slowly in comparison with pigs that the limit ot four years suggested by the Royal Bank does not at first sight open up much prospect for New Zealand farmers to do anything before prices will again be down. It must be borne in mind, however, that it is only necessary to.stop the present heavy ''leakage," in the form of calves killed young, to accelerate very greatly tho natural increase. There are about 1,750.000 breeding cows in the Dominion, nearly a third being Jersey and Jersey crosses, which cannot very well be included among the beef producers, but seeing that the number of cattle slaughtered for food, including export, is never over half a million a year, there is a clear indication that beef production could very quickly be increased by the single process of stopping the leakage which occurs in the killing" of young beef calves. The position seems to call for immediate investigation by the Statistical Department, for in another couple of months there will otherwise commence tho annual slaughter of hundreds of thousands of young calves. A largo proportion of these might be saved for adult beef, with advantage to the individual farmer and the whole community, if the Royal Bank is anywhere near correct in its estimate of the probable period during which high prices will last. New Zealand is probably unique in respect to the relative ease with which its herds can be rapidly increased. for the reason that in other countries breeding for beef is already nearer its capacity, whereas here we can stop a leakage and thus immensely increase tho nerds" in one season.

SAFEGUARDING RESULTS. NEW FACTORIES IN BRITAIN. Interesting evidence of the effect of the Government's efforts to foster British industries were recently given in the House of Commons by the president of tlio Board of Trade. Ho stated that 21 new factories have been started or projected for the manufacture of artificial silk yarn since the silk duties were imposed. A new factory is making natural-silk and a number of other factories are engaged in further stages of production of artificial silk goods, often in conjunction with other materials. The number of Workpeople insured against unemployment in the silk and artificial silk industry was 45,620 in July, 1925. Three y-ars later the number had risen to 70,270. Since the imposition of the key industry and safeguarding duties and tho reiniposition of tho McKenna duties particulars have been published of the establishment or projected establishment of six factories; making ■ good* covered by the key industry duties, 11 motor-car factories, fivo motor-tyre factories, 15 -musical instrument factories,, | and one wrapping-paper factory