THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS THURSDAY, AUGUST 18, 1927. FREE STATE POLITICS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXIV, Issue 19718, 18 August 1927, Page 8

THE New Zealand Herald. AND DAILY SOUTHERN CROSS THURSDAY, AUGUST 18, 1927. FREE STATE POLITICS.

By the narrowest of margins, the Irish Free State Government remains in office. But for the absence of one National League member, the Speaker's casting vote would not have been available to maintain the existing position, and there would have followed immediately an attempt to form a new Ministry under the Labour leader in the Dail. It would not have been wholly composed of Labour members, and would have been so much at the mercy of the Republicans that Mr. de Valera would have been its virtual head. That he and his followers, as the second largest party in the Dail, displaced the Labour group on the Opposition benches for the purposes of this debate at least, indicated clearly that the Republicans were acknowledged as the dominant section of the Government's opponents. It is almost equally clear that, whatever the composition of the new Ministry, its policy would have been dictated by this major body of support. Considering the slender hold on office now possessed by Mr. Cosgrave and his promise to have the position reviewed should the two pending by-elections affect the balance of parties, the outlook is fraught with important possibilities. The vacant seats were held respectively by a member of the Cabinet and a Republican, and it may be assumed that the filling of them will not disturb the party balance. Even so, the position has acquired an uncertainty bound to bring tension. It has arisen over questions deeply divisive. They are not likely to be allowed to slumber. Unrest, with some attendant possibilities not pleasant to contemplate, seems likely t® be the Free State's portion for many a day. There has been a pronounced movement in the last twelve months toward the crisis. The tide that was making in favour of the treaty has suffered a check, if it has not turned. The proposed constitution laid down in the treaty was published in detail on the morning of the first general election, when the Provisional Government went to the country. It was endorsed, for there was returned a majority of representatives favouring the treaty. Within fourteen months another general election took place on an extended franchise. This resulted in an overwhelming majority for the treaty and constitution. There have since been twentyone by-elections, seventeen resulting in favour and four against. In only one instance was there a by-election for a seat vacated by a deputy opposed to the, treaty, and that was won by a candidate in favour of it. At the recent general election, however, although the constitutionalists had no serious reverse, the forces against them were strengthened. Mr. de Valera changed his tactics somewhat. He dropped his assumed title of President of the Irish Republic and spoke of "recognising existing conditions." He conducted a whirlwind campaign to organise a newly-formed party proclaimed to be fashioned on moderate lines, replacing his old slogan of "scrap the treaty" by another, "remove the oath." This won strengthened support, placing him at the advantage seen in the present crisis. His was not the only change of tactics. Captain Redmond, along with Mr. O'Donnell, launched a new party —the National League. Its policy was a frank attack on the Government. Refraining from reference to the main issues then agitating the country —the extension of protection, the relations of the Free State to Ulster and England, and the place to be taken by the Irish language in education and national life generally —it made much of economic reconstruction, security of person and property, lower taxation, and kindred aims. In these respects, it was not easily distinguishable from the Government's programme. In one particular, it joined issue with the Republican policy, for it frankly stood without reservation .for the treaty. This makes the new party's action in the present crisis difficult to explain, unless by the assumption that, returned with only a small following, Captain Redmond has since preferred the only apparent course likely to make his party count in the Dail. At all events, he has added its influence to the movement against the oath, which is in effect a movement against the treaty. A feature of recent happenings has been an increasing disintegration of parties, the usual accompaniment of proportional representation. The Republicans have split into moderates and extremists. In Mr. Cos-

grave's party two fissures have appeared, one created by a threatened secession on constitutional issues and the other by a section favouring a thoroughly protectionist tariff. In some smaller parties the fiscal question lias provoked similar divisions. These have been healed for the purposes of the present struggle in the Dail, but they are liable to reappear and widen in the unstable circumstances now ruling. The Government cannot trust to the maintenance of the broad cleavage achieved on the censure motion just defeated. Should another clash be precipitated on constitutional questions, a different outcome might result, so narrow is Mr. Cosgrave's margin of security; whereas, as soon as reconstructive domestic legislation is given place again, he must face the risk of a fresh alignment of parties, due to the medley of opinions on them represented in an assembly now constituted in practically full membership. His position is precarious indeed.