POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXII, Issue 19094, 12 August 1925, Page 13

POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

THE SITUATION IN CANADA. OMENS FROM THE PROVINCES. FEDERAL ELECTIONS UNCERTAIN. [FBOH OCR OWN CORRESPONDENT.] TORONTO, July 4 When tho Canadian Parliament was prorogued this week, many political observers believed it marked the end of the present Parliament. But Liberal members left for their home with the shadow over them of a partv disaster in Nova Scotia, and the prospects of a dissolution of Parliament and an election this autumn aro by no means as confident as they were two weeks ago.

The Liberal Party's disaster in Nova Scotia was overwhelming. There, a Liberal Government has been in power for 43 years. In the last Legislature tho Conservatives had only two members. They had to import an expatriated Nova Scotian, Hon. E. N. Rhodes, to lead them. From the outside, their position seemed disorganised, and well-nigh hopeless. Yet they swept the Liberals from their seats with overwhelming majorities. When the smoke of battle cleared, positions of tho parties were found to bo entirely reversed, and only three Liberals had survived.

Acuta Local Issues. >..!> Fedoral Liberals find what comfort they can in the fact that local issues iu Nova Scotia were quite abnormal Liberal leadership, after a long lisil of strong premiers, was weak; the coal strike in the British Empire Steel Corporation bringing industrial disaster to a large section of the Provinco was said to have been badly handled by the Government; most important of all the widespread agitation for "Maritime Provinco rights" indicated a deep-seated discontent which augured ill for any Government. Liberals interpret the event not as a Conservative victory, but as the coming into being of a Nova Scotian party, the significance of which is more national than partisan. On the other hand, the Premier, Mr. Armstrong, sought to make an issue out of his advocacy for a policy—as a cure for Nova Scotia ills—of lower tariffs aud freer trade which, of course, could only be put in effect by the Ottawa Government. His appeal was futile.

Prominent among the Conservatives who wero elected is Mr. Frank J. D, Barnjum, an ex-Liberal, who has come into prominence in the last two or three years by his leadership in tho campaign to declare an embargo on tho export of pulp-wood into the United States. Ho is a notablo restrictionist in trade.

Conservatives therefore acclaim tho result as the turn of the tide. What Nova Scotia did last week, New Brunswick, they say, will do next month when Provincial elections are held. there. Next there will be substantial Conservative n gains in Quebec and a sweep of Ontario. I If this interpretatios is correct, Canada \ will shortly experience a change of Government and tho inauguration of a trado policy which will be more highly protective and restrictive than anything previously known. • '

Mr. King's Position. Conservatives, however, may be Unduly elated ( by a single victory. The position of Mr. Mackenzie King in Ottawa, is immeasurably stronger than it was when he formed his Government. His administration has not been spectacular, but he has been carefully consolidating his position, making friendships and alliances that will probably be valuable. In the most important division in the late session —that on Mr. Meighen's declaration of policy—the Government was supported by a vote of 147 to 37—a notable record for a Government that lacks a party majority in the House. Pitfalls Mr. King has avoided. Even on a simple matter like the appointment of a committee to report on a design for a Canadian flag when criticism arose, the Prime Minister promptly declared his preference for the Union Jack, and later discharged the committee, beforo it had begun to function.

He has also avoided sectionalism. While preserving a policy of determined friendship for the Progressives of the West, he has sought to reassure the industrial masses of the East. An unskilful leader in such a role is apt to fall between two stools. But the ability to satisfy in a conflict of interest the reasonable persons of opposing parties that the micTdie course is wisest is the mark of statesmanship and skill. Mr. King has been giving somo evidence that he possesses that skill.

Tho next election, whether it comes this autumn or not until 1926, will furnish the test. When it will come only the Prime Minister knows. He may bo guided by what happens in New Brunswick, by his interpretation of the Nova Scotia debacle and by the crops bow developing—at present exceedingly promising.

Provision of a pension of 10,000 dollars a year for Mr. W. S. Fielding. Minister for Finance, who has been incapacitated for two years, means that he, is definitely retiring from public life and that before the election comes there will be some reorganisation of the Cabinet. It is understood that Mr. James Robb, who has been acting-Minister for Finance, will receive the portfolio and that Mr. Charles Dunning, the recently triumphant Premier of Saskatchewan, will enter Federal politics as Minister for Immigration.