THE DAIRYING OUTLOOK

New Zealand Herald, Volume LXI, Issue 18888, 22 December 1924, Page 8

THE DAIRYING OUTLOOK

<v MR. GOODFELLOW'S REVIEW « RECEDING OF THE PRICES. HEAVY ARRIVALS ON MARKET. FBI TELEGBATH. —OWN" CORRESPONDENT.} HAMILTON. Saturday. "Very nearly half a milh'on of money was distributed to dairy suppliers throughout the South Auckland Province to-day," taid Mr. Wm. Goodfellow, managing director of tho New Zealand ( Co-operative Dairy Company, Ltd. "This is perhaps the. most iatisfactory Christmas present they can receive, and it is being contributed to by the remarkably good season that is being experienced. All past records in production seem certain to go by the board this year unless weather conditions materially change. "The money paid out on November 20 by my company was £383,000. This month's cheques reached approximately £425.100. The total amount of this payout would have been larger had it not been necessary for the directors to reluctantly reduce the atrwance by Id to Is in sympathy with the forward position of the London market. That London merchants view the forward position conservatively is sufficiently demonstrated by tho fact that they have arranged credits for current advances on export butter on a basis of only Is 2d per lb." Dealing with local prices, Mr. Goodfellow said that tho present retail price of Anchor butter was now Is 7d, which yielded a wholesale price of Is 4|d, and gave a net return to the factory of & traction over Is 4d, which was therefore quite in line with the export parity. What governed the position at this time of the vear was.not the current price of butter ,an London, but the forward position, - i.e., the price likely to rule for the heavy New Zealand supplies being manufactured now and due to reach the London market in February, March and April. Large American Eeserve. At present the United States market was carrying 26,000 tons more stored butr ter than at this prediod last year, and this- large reserve had a weakening effect oii London where American supplies " had-been offere:! at as low as 160s, when Anchor butter was selling at 208s. Allied i i with that position was the fact that AusI tralia was experiencing heavy production. Heavy supplies were now going forward ' from' the Commonwealth and New Zea- [? land and arrivals from early January on- ; wards would be heavy. For instance, in j.-the week ending January 10, no less than •1445 tons of Australian butter and 1555 ! tons of New Zealand butter were due to, reach London. ■ The prospective arrivals of butter in j London from New Zealand for the months -. ■ of January, February and! March next as 'outlined in the allotments of space drawn • up by the shipping companies were very ; -impressive, being as follows:—January / 322,873 boxes (258,002 boxes last season), j February 509.199 boxes (307,634 last seaj son), March 306,334 boxes (274,892 boxes ; last season), or a total of 1,138,406 boxes, '-as against 840,528 last season. These figures showe 1 a prospective increase of j! 35 per cent, over arrivals in the same • i -month last si ason. The grading figures for *the first four months of this season , j give a Dominion total of 1,040,000 boxes ?>roduced, compared with 806,000 boxes ast season—an increase in actual proj duction of 20 per cent., which the exceptionally good season may still-further increase. ."For the last three seasons," continued Mr. Goodfellow, "the British imports of i butter for the three months of January, | February and March in 561b. boxes, and the New Zealand contribution to those ! totals'have been as follows;— I Total. New Zealand. 1 1922 .. 2,622,400 838,966 i 1923 .. 2,802,902 859,430 • ; 1924 .. 2,667,802 840,528 1925 .. . — 1,138,406 "Producers will therefore see that uni less some unexpected improvement in the statistical or general position is effected .'reduced prices in the future may be rej garded as certain. Unregulated marketing. f' ' "In this period of our heaviest supplies going forward to Britain we always receive our lowest prices, simply because no attempt is made to regulate the ar- . \ rival of our produce upom the British .. market. "_ "The only favourable factors in the ■ position are, first, that Argentine is experiencing something in the nature of a drought, and consequently her supplies may not bo z% heavy as they were last year; and, jecor.dly, that Germany is now a buyer of butter. It is expected that Continental demand will continue, and, in that case, it is anticipated that butter manufactured in November and December ' this year will return approximately Is 4d per lb. f.0.b.. or about 2d per lb. higher than was secured by the same months' production last season. If German buying were to cease, thus restricting the demand for butter, prices would inevitably tend to recede. It can be seen, therefore," concluded Mr. Goodfellow, "that while I am personally hopeful of seeing better returns rule this year than last, there is nothing in the general position to warrant the expectation of high prices ruling ahead."