IRISH ELECTIONS.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18458, 23 July 1923, Page 7

IRISH ELECTIONS.

DECISION OP THE DAIL. APPEAL BEFORE SEPTEMBER REPUBLICAN PEACE ; POLICY. " THE WAR IS FINISHED:'? By Telegraph Press Association— Copyright. ■.:;;..'■'- ■•■:„■ (Received 4.5 pan.) ■, , -. A. and N.Z. ' " DUBLIN. , July 22. At a secret session the Dail-Eireann decided to ' hold & general election before September. The country; generally f seems disposed to/ give the Government a renewed, lease of life. De Valera has issued a statement declaring, that it :is not the intention of the Republicans to renew the war in autumn or after the elections. " The war is finished," he declares. "We intend to devote ourselves to social reform,, but. we shall continue to deny the right of any foreign ' authority . to control. Ireland.

FOUR PARTIES IN THE FIELD. LABOUR AND FARMER . FACTORS. Four parties are expected ,to take the field in the next Irish general elections — the Government, or National Party, the Farmers' Party, the Labour Party, and the Republicans. Discussing their prospects recently, a special corespondent of the- Manchester Guardian wrote: :.- " It is doubtful whether the Republicans will contest the election at all. If they do, they can only keep vacant the seats they win, for they: cannot Sake the oath winch the . Constitution requires. But, assuming the Republicans do stand, what votes will they get? , Not many, unless there is a reaction in their favour. In Leinster: and Munster most people believe that they '. will be . snowed under by the votes of indignant materialists, farmers,, shopkeepers, and labourers, who will not easily forgive them for interrupting their business and burdening the country with debt. A Republican from a Republican stronghold in the county of Cork admitted to me that the Republican!* to-day have no chance of half the votes they would have got the week after the treaty was signed. " But even in Munster I get warnings of the presence of a disturbing factor— the town girls and the country boys between the ages of 21 and 25- All these have the vote. They are, of course, Republicans by choice, and being young and unmarried they are apt to pursue their choice without n?'.'.r;h regard for the dangers "in their pith. I get the same warning with still greater emphasis in the west. The west is the land of the small farmer, and the small farmer's younger sons are everywhere in revolt against their father, and inclined to look upon Republicanism, as the most . attractive career open to ' them. Then, personality is another disturbing factor. There are half a dozen Republicans whose personal reputation would secure their return. These are mostly men who refused to take up arms against the Free State, though they would not accept the treaty. To make a wild guess,'.-'I would give the Republicans 20 seats out of 150 if the elections were to be held to-day. But much water has to flow under the bridge between this and September.: * ••

Labour and £and Hunger. . s • "Turning next to Labour, we come to the best organised of the four parties. The Labour members hare done well in the present 'Dail. Further, in come parts ef the country, Labour has gained credit for its activities in checking profiteering by establishing co-operative bakeries and in other ways. On the other hand,. the extremist policy of some local branches of the Irish Transport and General Workers' Union will probably cost Labour the votes of a ' good many conservative working men. Some say that the Republicans, if they do not run candidates of -their own, will vote Labour, thinking that Labour, is the party most likely to embarrass the Government. : But Labour can hardly afford to find room for many anti-treaty planks in its platform. r The working man is sick of Nationalist wars, and does not mean to ,'take any risks. Labour would greatly increase its strength if it conld capture the small' farmer who works his farm with no hands but his own and his sons'. < To this end, some fiery young Labourites propose not only to confiscate the ' unsold ' landlords' interest in the land, but also to portion out the holdings of big farmers men owning more than 200 acres. This programme would attract votes, for the land hunger is still strong, especially in the west, and the small farmer always ha couple of younger soins to be provided for. But the responsible Labour leaders are unlikely to commit themselves to such a programme. : They would like to experiment in co-operative farming, which the small : farmer will have nothing to do with, but they are distrustful , of the economic and cultural consequences of turning Ireland into a, chessboard of small holdings, with all the pieces pawns 1 or "bishops. Good authorities give Labour from 35 to 55 seats out of 150. »'

! Conservatism,- of the Farmers. ;/ '. "The farmers, too, have been active in organising themselves. Their politics are simple. I will describe them out of the mouth of an enemy: "Tory" means "robber," and "Conservatism" means keeping what you've got. Well, the farmers are high Tories and strong Conservatives. They have robbed the landlords, and they mean to take jolly good care that Labour does not rob them. 'I hear they are out for national development and economy. 'That means they will support any scheme for. putting money in their own pocket, and that they will capture the county councils and cut down the rates. Besides, tbey won't be enthusiastic about keeping; up that national army, though they'll, be ready enough -to cry out for law and'order and a strong, police force. j 'Are they, going to oppose protection '■' The business . men /jn the towns arid Labour wants protection. : The farmers haven't- the intelligence I to. see ; that it is they who will have to pay for it. Tbev may oven ', be ; persuaded to - support it. ' Will they get a majority at the election ?' ' The business. men in the towns will make an alliance with them to uphold law and order and to break Labour. Between them they ought to return 50 or 60 members—more than any other party will ■ get in.' 'Will they support the present Government', or turn it out V They would like to : put in their own men, but the farmers were never remarkable for moral courage, and there will be a lot of unpopular work to be done between keeping down the .' Republicans, raising taxes, and demobilising the arrayThe farmers haven't 5 anyone with the courage and hardness needed for the job. It'fl my belief they'll let Kevin O'Higgins and the rest do the "rough work for them, and then turn them out and give them no thanks.'— an enemy. Friends give much the same estimate of the farmers' aims, kind strength, but maintain that their moderation and conservatism, has been, and always will be, the salvation of the country. " Lastly, w© come to the Government party— National Party. It has only recently come into the field, and' its programme is vague. •;It;?'real aim to secure the continuance in office of the present Government till the task of restoring Ta\i and order has been completed. Professional men and business men will probßbljr vote for this party, . except m Cork and one or two other towns, where they seem inclined to make an alliance with the farmers to put in a ' business' Government. This party may quite ; possibly return no more than 20 or 30 members, but for reasons already given the fairs-Vs' party: will probably ,be willing to keep the present Government in office till : the ship ; of State is in smoother waters. As soon as calm waters are reached, the, present Government and the National Party must dissolve; For the present Government is a " war Government, and, like most war Governments, it is of the nature of a coalition—that is, it comprises men whose ~ peace-time ideals at« jflcompatibla," • r.. '*' ' •""-■ I ','.-: <■'*• ': -•"•'■>' ,'-.' :•.> ■'■ ' •.' "'',''./'' -'■■ '■ ■ ■•""■ : , :: - ■■•-■' ''. ■:' '.'.' : " .. - -7'-' '■:'.' -