POLITICS AND PARTY.

New Zealand Herald, Volume LX, Issue 18317, 6 February 1923, Page 8

POLITICS AND PARTY.

TEST SESSION PROSPECTS.

REFORM MAJORITY EXPECTED'

ELECTION OF SPEAKER.

MR. STATHAM FAVOURED. [BY. TELEGRAPH.— CORRESPONDENT.] ' ;■ : WELLINGTON. Monday. ' The. " party-" session of the 21st representative Parliament of New Zealand will be opened on Wednesday afternoon by the Special Commission of Legislative Councillors. It '■', will consist of ■•',■ three Knights, Sir Walter Carncross (Speaker), Sir Francis Bell (Loader), and Sir William Hall-Jones, while a fourth member may be added. The opening ceremony will be very forms!, and just about as interesting as the umpires' Inspection of a good cricket pitch, while an impatient crowd eagerly awaits the players. It is an occasion when " the game's the thing." There is keen public interest in the political party game that is about to be played in Wellington. It may be said, indeed, that rumour has gripped the capital like an epidemic. Everybody, it would seem, has caught the lively germ of political fever, and there is the inevitable babbling peculiar ; to the feverish condition. Men. who ordinarily take little more than a. passing interest in politics have become political authorities, with the pentecostal gift of prophecy and discernment. Thus they predict With almost on enviable confidence that the Reform Party cannot obtain a working majority, and that Mr. Massey, the last of the war-time Premiers to remain in office as a leader, must also go the way of all the peacemakers who have not altogether been blessed since the glittering days at Versailles. But- all the prophets are easily confounded by a simple question: If not Mr. Massey and his party, who and which shall rule? There is no acceptable answer. After all, it is to find the decisive answer to this very question that this first and special test session of tho new Parliament ( has been called. It may seem that predictions are scarcely worth the telling from a distance, but they may at least be taken as representing the political "atmosphere" of the capital, where rumour vies with the inevitable wind in noisy rivalry.

The Test of Veterans. The best guide in politics at all times, and really the only guide followed by Parliamentary veterans, is the manner or mien of those whose position as executive administrators is menaced. Are they perturbed, or are they tranquil ? The official response is a definite and a deliberate statement that there is no evidence of perturbation among the Government Party. There is naturally some oxi'ety about the future but there is no serious apprehension. It is clearly recognised that even with the surmounting of the initial difficulty, there will be several obstacles left for the working session. To change the metaphor, the yeast of trouble will always be rising. The preliminary counting of heads gives the Government a majority of three after the election of the Speaker from the divided camp of the Opposition and, behind the official count, there are fairly dependable pledges of support against any combination of disruptive, anti-Govern-ment forces. It is, therefore, most confidently anticipated that the test division to tako place within three, weeks will align. the htrength of parties on the side of the Maasey Administration. So, unless surprises spring from unexpected sources, and there is no suggestion that any one of the four members referred to is " blowing hot and cole:!," it may be said beyond all reasonable doubt that the session which has not yet begun will end with .Government banners , flying with becoming modesty. ' """ \ The Hew Speaker.

Though the procedure in respect of the opening of Parliament in itself will be dull and formal in the Legislative Council, where' the three knights (one had almost written the "three musketeers") will present their commission, the > subsequent proceedings in the House should be piquant. '■: The first and only business of the 'occasion will be the appointment of a Speaker, the House having been technically guillotined at the general elections. '»,' It should be clearly understood that the forthcoming appointment in .not made by the Government, though, as a rule, the initiative is in the hands of the Administration. This explanation is necessary in view of the possibility of there being two nominations for the responsible post. The appointment is wholly the gift of the House, and any division would not therefore be a party test. ... The Government party's choice will indisputably be Mr. Charles Ernest Statham, I Independent membur for Dunedin Central, and probably at heart still sufficiently sympathetic with the party of his earlier predilections 'to be worthy of its whole-hearted support. With regard to Mr. Statham's attitude on the matter, one unhesitatingly may say that "Barkis is willin'." He is ideally the man for the position.. v His election is not quite a certainty, but most people on a racecourse would be satisfied with similar prospects of a win. It is probable, however, that the nomination of the Hon. J. A. Hanan, Liberal member for Invercargill, will be put forward ■-' This prospect, which is somewhat thin, does not perturb the Government party; which has nothing to lose by Mr Hanan'b ;. possible election as Speaker. As things are, it looks ae if Mr. Statham will wear the wig with dignity and appreciable effect': v .

Speech from the ; Throne. Th« Governor-General's speech will be delivered to Parliament by Lord Jelh'coe on Thursday afternoon. It will .be"easy to read and should be a model .'of brevity, if not a record for Economy of words. It will explain the special reason for the early assembling of the new Parliament and outline the business of the session, which is to determine if the Government 13 supported by a majority of the House or otherwise— " only that and nothing more." This, the Vice-Regal speech, it is interesting to note, will be somewhat unique in that it really sets the field for the party test. The test of parties will begin seriously On Friday, when the Minister for Finance will present an interim financial statement. It is probable that Mr. Massey will also make an explanatory speech. The "Little Budget will show that a very appreciable change has marked the national finances during the latter part of the current financial year, and that the prospects as to revenue for the final quarter promise exceptionally well. There will not be a full muster of the Reform Party during the session. Two members, Sir William Herrios (Tauranga), and - Mr. H. W. Uru (Southern Maori) are in hospital and convalescing after rather sharp illness. It is anticipated that both will be able to attend this week for the purpose of being sworn in as members of Parliament. It is 'inlikely, however, thai Sir William H'j-*-ries will take any part in the test debate. There appears to be no doubt whatever about. obtaining a " pair " for the veteran legislator whet has no enemies in politics. Meanwhile., the Government ia quietly confident of securing a narrow majority on a no-confidence motion, and that is all that is wanted just now. The political clans are gathering, and within a few days the heather should be on fire.